With the S&P 500 in an uptrend, Bitcoin appears to be following a similar path. However, analysts note that such elevated correlation levels rarely last long. Traders are watching both stock and crypto charts closely, aware that sudden shifts in risk appetite could quickly ripple into Bitcoin’s price. 

Macroeconomic Forces Shape Bitcoin’s Movement 

Analyst Axel Adler highlights that the current 80% correlation reflects the strong influence of macroeconomic conditions on the crypto market. Interest rate expectations, liquidity trends, and overall risk sentiment are directly impacting BTC’s price. A sustained recovery in U.S. equities is providing a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin. Conversely, a downturn in stocks could swiftly spread negative sentiment across the crypto space. 

Adler explains that the figure is based on a 1-week rolling correlation, which tends to be volatile. Historically, these spikes revert to the mean within weeks. Still, the expansion of institutional crypto products in the U.S. and corporate treasury allocations sets a constructive long-term picture. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Support Holds Firm 

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $115,724 horizontal support zone. On the 4-hour chart, the price has moved above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs. These levels, converging near $116,000, now form a strong support cluster. The immediate upside target remains the $122,077 resistance, last tested in mid-July. However, selling pressure around $117,000 has led to short-term consolidation. 

Trading volume has eased after the breakout, signaling the need for fresh momentum. If support holds, BTC could attempt a move toward the $118,000–$122,000 range. If it fails, a retest of $115,724 and deeper pullback levels could follow. 

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The post Bitcoin–S&P 500 Correlation Hits 80% as Price Holds Key Support appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin Analysis

Following its ATH, Bitcoin ($BTC) began forming a downward trend and exhibited bearish structural breakdowns along the way. During this process, BTC tested the previous peak at $112,000, where it found support and bounced. However, despite this reaction, the key resistance at $116,000 has yet to be decisively reclaimed.

A 4-hour close above this level would suggest the end of the correction phase and a reclaiming of what can be considered a “safe zone.”

On lower timeframes, BTC has shown the first bullish breakouts. If it manages to stay above $114,000, the price could attempt to break the resistance at $116,000. A successful breakout here would also invalidate the descending trendline, with the next target resistance lying around $119,000.

That said, from a broader perspective, as long as BTC does not drop below the $98,000 level, there’s no strong reason to expect a significant negative shift in the overall structure. Rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations, it’s more reasonable to focus on the mid- to long-term technical setup.

USDT.d (Tether Dominance) Analysis

USDT.d is currently showing strong internal bullish momentum. After hitting resistance around 4.51%, the dominance pulled back to 4.39%. This zone is critical — a breakdown here could lead to a further drop toward the 4.25% support area.

Historically, this level played a key role in helping USDT.d gain momentum and shift structurally bullish, so a bounce from here appears likely. However, if 4.39% fails to be reclaimed, we may see a further decline toward the 4.17% zone.

*This Content Is Not Investment Advice

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Teng’s View on the Fed’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Cuts

Teng also discussed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, stating that the recent market downturn is largely due to the Fed’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts. While the likelihood of a rate cut in March seems to have decreased, Teng noted, “Monetary policy remains data-driven, and if inflation begins to decline or the labor market weakens, the Fed could quickly shift its stance.”

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Teng’s Optimistic Outlook

Acknowledging that market pullbacks can be unsettling, Teng remained optimistic: “However, these are also the moments when experienced investors position themselves for the next bull trend. Crypto has become an asset class integrated with global finance, and its ability to recover from macro-driven downturns has been proven.”

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