An Interesting Turn from Selling to Buying

Onchain data shows Hayes sold 2,373 Ether, worth about $8.32 million, when the token was trading near $3,507. This sale locked in profits before Ethereum’s recent rally.

However, last Saturday, Hayes moved out $10.5 million in USDC across multiple transactions to buy back ETH at prices above $4,150 — significantly higher than his previous exit point.

He tweeted, “Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me @fundstrat?” tagging Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat. Hayes added, “I pinky swear, I’ll never take profit again.”

Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me @fundstrat ?

I pinky swear, I'll never take profit again.

pic.twitter.com/jRWfaCEPE6

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 9, 2025

Hayes Issues Crypto Market Warning

As CIO of Maelstrom Fund, Hayes warned last week that mounting macroeconomic pressures could pull Bitcoin back toward $100,000.

Citing renewed tariff fears following weak July Non-Farm Payrolls showing only 73,000 new US jobs, Hayes noted that sluggish credit growth in major economies could weigh on nominal GDP and push Bitcoin and Ethereum lower toward $100,000 and $3,000, respectively.

In anticipation, Hayes sold over $13 million worth of crypto, including $8.32 million in ETH, $4.62 million in Ethena, and $414,700 in Pepe tokens.

Institutions Accumulate $4.17 Billion in ETH

Since July 10, unknown whales and institutions have accumulated approximately 1.035 million ETH — valued around $4.17 billion — through exchanges and institutional trading platforms, according to data gathered by EmberCN.

This buying surge coincided with Ethereum’s strong price rally, climbing from $2,600 to $4,000 within the month — a 45% increase.

EmberCN noted that most of the ETH held by these addresses likely belongs to institutions or US public companies building ETH reserves. This excludes publicly known entities like SBET. The average acquisition price for these holdings is estimated at roughly $3,546.

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The post Hayes Backs In: “I Pinky Swear I’ll Never Take Profit Again” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Hayes argues that despite the common belief of a post-halving price surge, a correction is more likely. He points out that the “bullish halving narrative” is widely accepted, potentially setting the stage for a price drop of at least 10%.

Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant price increases in the months following a halving. This event cuts the supply of new bitcoins issued per block in half every four years. The upcoming halving will reduce the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Hayes believes that the market may be overestimating the halving’s impact. With Bitcoin already up over 65% this year, a correction could follow the event, despite new supply limitations.

Adding to the potential for a downturn, U.S. tax season and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) policies could further limit dollar liquidity. This could lead to increased risk aversion and a sell-off of crypto assets around the halving date.

Tax payments typically reduce liquidity as individuals withdraw funds to meet their obligations. A stronger dollar due to reduced liquidity could make borrowing more expensive and discourage investment in risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

Hayes expects significant liquidity outflows due to capital gains taxes from the booming stock market and higher interest rates. This could lead to a sharp rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by mid-April.

The TGA is the government’s operating account, and its growth signifies a decrease in dollar liquidity. Hayes predicts a “precarious period” for risky assets between April 15th and May 1st.

However, Hayes suggests a potential market turnaround after May 1st. He anticipates Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen utilizing the TGA funds to stimulate asset prices in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election in November.

In conclusion, Hayes advises traders to be cautious around the halving and suggests April as a potential time for short positions. He expects a return to “asset inflation” supported by the Fed and Treasury after May 1st.

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The post Bitcoin Price Slump Possible Around Halving, Warns Arthur Hayes appeared first on Coin Engineer.