Historical Hope Amid Weak Market Conditions

Only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA), meaning 95% are still below that long-term trend line — a sign of broad weakness across altcoins.

However, historical cycles offer a different perspective. Over the past two years, this ratio has typically remained below 15% for no more than five months before recovering. Similar structures formed from June–October 2024 and again from February–June 2025. The current downtrend began last October and has now reached the end of its fifth month. This development suggests that many altcoins have fallen to potentially attractive price levels and may attract renewed demand.

Meanwhile, analysts have spotted early positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart (which measures total altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin). On the monthly timeframe, the MACD indicator crossed above its signal line and produced its first green histogram bar since early 2024 — similar to formations that appeared ahead of major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.

Analyst Blade notes that momentum shifts combined with structural compression often precede expansion. This technical setup strengthens the possibility of altcoins posting gains in March.

Altcoin Market Structure and Supply Dynamics

In February, the total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) remained under $1 trillion, and overall market sentiment hit multi-year lows. Selling pressure on altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) reached levels not seen over the past five years. Over the past 13 months, the cumulative net flow from altcoin buying and selling reached -$209 billion; in January 2025, this figure was nearly flat, indicating a balanced supply-demand picture at the time. Since then, the decline has continued without meaningful recovery.

The expansion of the altcoin ecosystem is also significant: five years ago, there were roughly 430,000 listed coins, compared with 31.8 million today — nearly a 70‑fold increase. However, rising supply amid weak demand has exerted downward pressure on most altcoins.

Capital Still Concentrated in Bitcoin

A broader view of trading volumes shows that on centralized exchanges (CEXs), altcoin volume relative to Bitcoin volume has dropped to the lowest level in a year. In 2025, this ratio peaked near 3.5 before falling below 2.5 by late last year and stabilizing around 2.2 in early 2026. This trend highlights ongoing investor preference for Bitcoin at the expense of altcoins.

For a true altcoin season to begin, fresh capital would need to enter the market and rotate from Bitcoin into a broader range of altcoins.

As of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43 — well below the 75 threshold typically regarded as confirmation of a real altcoin season. Divergences between technical indicators and market sentiment often occur just before major trend shifts. Whether this balance will change in March remains to be seen.

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Significance of Bitcoin Outflows

Investors often withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges to hold it long-term or transfer it to secure custody accounts. Santiment notes that when fewer coins remain on exchanges, the likelihood of large-scale sell-offs historically decreases. Glassnode data shows that only 14.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently held on exchanges, down from 18% in mid-2022. Ethereum’s figures are even lower, with 8.7% held on exchanges, reflecting a consistent downward trend as ETH is staked, custodied, or acquired by treasury companies.

Santiment highlighted this trend, stating:

“The less coins that exist on exchanges, the less likely we’ve historically seen a major sell-off that causes downside pressure for an asset’s price.”

Expert Opinions and Technical Analysis

Analyst Sykodelic noted that the OBV (On-Balance Volume) chart is signaling stronger movement than price action, indicating that buying is outpacing selling. Analyst Daan observed that Bitcoin is trading sideways in the short term while approaching its bull market support band. Meanwhile, Colin identified a bear-flag continuation pattern, predicting a potential drop to the $74,000–$77,000 range. These insights suggest that short-term volatility may continue.

As Bitcoin's market value hovers around $90K, crypto's top market cap continues to see its supply moving away from exchanges. Over the past year, there has been:

A net total of -403.2K $BTC moving off exchanges
A net reduction of -2.09% of $BTC's entire supply moving… pic.twitter.com/Y0JTC880Np

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 8, 2025

Short-Term Resistance and Market Dynamics

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had slipped below the $90,000 level, trading at $89,862. It remains within a weekly range-bound channel and struggles to surpass resistance near $92,000. Analysts note that the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut is already priced in, making a short-term upward breakout unlikely.

• Bitcoin outflows from exchanges support long-term price stability

• OBV indicates buying momentum is stronger than selling

• Declining exchange supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum reflects institutional accumulation

• Short-term resistance remains near $92,000

• Analysts anticipate continued market volatility

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CoinShares Analysis

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, highlighted in a market note dated December 5 that Tether’s assets exceed its liabilities. According to the latest attestation, the stablecoin maintains around $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities, creating an excess of approximately $6.55 billion. Butterfill emphasized that these figures indicate no systemic vulnerability for USDT at present.

• Reserves: $181 billion

• Liabilities: $174.45 billion

• Excess reserve: $6.55 billion

The report also noted Tether’s strong profitability, exceeding $10 billion since the beginning of the year, and a diversified reserve structure that further reduces liquidity and solvency risks.

Market Reaction and Hayes’ Warning

Hayes’ claims quickly spread across crypto news outlets and social media, raising questions about the impact of potential declines in Tether’s Bitcoin and gold holdings. CoinShares acknowledged these risks but reassured that Tether’s large reserve buffer and year-to-date profits significantly mitigate any immediate threat to USDT’s solvency.

Tether’s Current Position and CEO Statement

Tether continues to lead the stablecoin market with a circulating supply of $185.5 billion and roughly 59% market share. CEO Paolo Ardoino referred to the latest attestation, highlighting approximately $7 billion in excess equity and nearly $30 billion in total Tether Group equity. He also mentioned that U.S. Treasury holdings generate about $500 million in monthly base profits, further strengthening USDT’s payment capability. Ardoino stated, “Forever trusting who we are. No, nothing else matters,” reinforcing confidence in Tether’s financial robustness.

Tether’s diversified reserves, strong earnings, and excess equity collectively enhance the stablecoin’s resilience against market volatility. While CoinShares advises investors to remain cautious, the data confirm that USDT’s solvency is currently secure.

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A Legacy of the Massive Airdrop and Why This Unlock Matters

Pseudonymous developer iliensinc explained that the release was intentionally aligned with the first anniversary of Hyperliquid’s token generation event. He reminded the community that roughly 270 million tokens had already been fully unlocked on November 29, 2024. At current pricing, that historical unlock would be valued at around $9.5 billion, still regarded as the largest airdrop in the industry’s history.

One point the Hyperliquid community stresses repeatedly is that the project has never raised external capital. As a result, all unlocked tokens belong strictly to the team and internal contributors. With no investor allocations, Hyperliquid avoids the typical VC-related selling pressure that often disrupts token markets.

Price Reaction: Was the Unlock Already Priced In?

Following Saturday’s announcement, HYPE fell about 4.6 percent. Because the token has been in a months-long downtrend, traders are highly sensitive to timing. Investors are now watching closely to see whether any portion of the $60 million allocation will reach active liquidity during the coming days.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes highlighted the core risk inherent in unlocks, stating that a team’s promise not to sell is never binding. The probability of ongoing sell pressure, he argued, is never zero. According to Hayes, current price behavior suggests the market has already factored this possibility into its outlook.

HYPE reached an all-time high of $59.40 in September but has fallen roughly 42 percent since then, dropping below its 200-day moving average and losing a significant long-term support zone.

The strong uptrend extending into mid-2025 began losing momentum after September 19. During the violent altcoin sell-off on October 10, several tokens dropped more than 95 percent in a single session. HYPE also plunged 54 percent that day before rebounding into the $40 range within two sessions.

Since then, price action has been defined by lower highs and weakening momentum. As a result, each new unlock is interpreted more cautiously, with traders searching for signs of potential supply inflows.

DEX Performance: Strong Throughput Despite Price Pressure

Industry analysts continue to cite Hyperliquid’s technical design and revenue engine as standout strengths. The DEX has managed nearly $330 billion in monthly volume with a relatively small team—an impressive operational footprint during a year marked by extreme volatility and repeated liquidity shocks.

Supporters argue that this level of volume, user growth and fee generation explains the token’s strong early-stage valuation. Critics, however, maintain that unlock cycles will continue to shape short-term market reactions regardless of fundamentals.

Has the Market Absorbed the Selling Pressure?

Because the unlock followed a transparent and well-known schedule, it did not create an unexpected information shock. Still, traders remain cautious, aware that the possibility of selling never disappears entirely.

The broader outlook suggests that while Hyperliquid maintains operational strength, investor psychology remains highly sensitive to token unlock events. This dynamic implies that HYPE may continue to experience elevated volatility in the near term.

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We will keep the stock market at an all-time high.

With this promise, he once again gives hope to those already in the market or considering entering, possibly triggering another upward move. However, investors still hold one major doubt and one crucial question: How realistic are these words? Looking at today’s economic landscape, it is quite clear that there is a significant gap between what is being said and what is actually happening.

What Changed When Donald Trump Took Office?

In 2025, Donald Trump made numerous statements about the economy and initiated several actions—many of which, so to speak, backfired and painted markets in red. Despite the negative impact of his trade tariffs and policies on many sectors, he insisted that the U.S. stock market was “stronger” and that his intention was to keep it elevated. He even emphasized that everyone should remember how U.S. markets reached record highs earlier this year. While some investors criticize Trump’s approach, could the so-called “Trump effect” actually have had a positive influence?

However, despite these claims, the markets have frequently experienced major instability. Starting from the early months of 2025, U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines due to imposed tariffs, global trade tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. In fact, double-digit losses were not uncommon.

You may also be interested in this article: Silver Ounce Price Races Toward a Record!

Can Donald Trump Really Keep the Market at Its Peak?

High market prices are not sustained by statements alone. Although remarks can create short-term upward or downward movements, real market direction is driven by the following factors:

• Economic Data
• Global Balances
• Corporate Earnings Reports
• Interest – Inflation Rates
• Global Trade

These variables are the true determinants of market direction. Therefore, when a leader says “I will keep the stock market at its peak,” it naturally raises significant, and often unanswered, questions.

Recently, margin debt reached an all-time high. Margin debt represents the amount of money investors borrow from brokerage firms through margin accounts. This indicator is often used to evaluate potential market tops and bottoms. When margin debt hits a record level and the markets also reach record highs, the situation is commonly described as a “reflex” move or even a “bubble.” Under such circumstances, how convincing can Trump’s claim really be?

Periods like these offer the potential for high profits but carry equally high risks. They cannot be sustained by a single political statement.

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Bitcoin Whale Inflows Signal a Strong Warning

On November 21, whales moved approximately 9,000 BTC to exchanges, nearly half from large wallets. This activity signaled that whales were preparing to sell, adding new pressure to the crypto market. Single-day transfers reaching 7,000 BTC further stressed the price.

“This indicates that investors and traders continue to sell Bitcoin in the context of the current price drawdown, putting further downward pressure on the price.”

CryptoQuant analysis shows that almost half of the BTC sent to exchanges comes from wallets holding 100 BTC or more. Single-day inflows of 7,000 BTC suggest whales are accelerating their selling preparations.

Meanwhile, the average BTC deposit in November reached 1.23 BTC, the highest level in the past year. This rise pushed exchanges back into a selling-dominated position. Coinbase reported that BTC fell to $80,600, the lowest in seven months.

Bitcoin exchange inflows are rising as the price drops to ~87K, a seven-month low.

Large deposits (100+ BTC) now make up 45% of all inflows, hitting 7K BTC on Nov 21.

Large holders are increasingly sending BTC to exchanges, reinforcing the current downtrend. pic.twitter.com/UpN4rAL0FH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 26, 2025

Binance Stablecoin Reserves Hit Record High

Binance’s stablecoin reserves reached $51 billion this week, setting a new record. This accumulation indicates that investors are moving away from risk and keeping capital in waiting mode. BTC and ETH inflows on Binance and Coinbase together reached $40 billion, adding further pressure on the crypto market.

Analyst James Check noted that leverage remains high. He added that if BTC enters the $70,000–$80,000 range, it could clear remaining leveraged positions, indicating continued short-term volatility.

Altcoin Inflows Rise as Resistance Levels Are Monitored

Ether inflows increased but not as sharply as BTC. However, altcoins faced a strong selling wave, with many tokens returning to bear market lows. This trend shows low investor appetite and reduced trading activity on exchanges.

10x Research noted that Bitcoin’s tactical recovery from oversold conditions continues. Analysts identified $92,000 and $101,000 as key resistance levels. Remaining above $90,000 will be decisive for short-term price action.

Key Market Signals This Week:

• Whale inflows rose, boosting selling pressure.
• Stablecoin reserves reached record highs.
• Altcoin inflows increased, while prices weakened.
• The crypto market remains cautious.

This analysis clearly shows the relationship between Bitcoin whale inflows and market behavior. On-chain data continues to shape short-term trends. As whale activity increases, market pressure may persist, urging investors to remain cautious.

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The post Are Bitcoin Whale Inflows Rising? Price Faces Downside Risk appeared first on Coin Engineer.

On-chain data shows that large holders continue to sell. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000–10,000 BTC remain net sellers, while smaller investors have also been gradually reducing their positions over the past 60 days. This leaves limited support for the market from retail participants.

Futures Stress and Market Pressure

Market observers note serious stress in Bitcoin’s futures markets. According to analyst Darkfost, long liquidations have reached levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022. October and November liquidation events mirror past crises, highlighting the market’s heavy leverage.

Meanwhile, mid-sized wallets holding 10–1,000 Bitcoin have been steadily accumulating, helping stabilize the price after the sharp drop from $106,000 to $79,500. Still, the ongoing distribution from large whales prevents a strong trend reversal.

Analysts Weigh In on a Possible Cycle Low

Analysts are divided on whether $79,500 marks a cycle bottom. Crypto Dan notes that short-term holders capitulated near $80,000, a pattern historically linked to local lows. Conversely, CryptoOnchain points out that long-term holders have distributed roughly 63,000 Bitcoin, signaling a transfer of wealth to newer investors.

Some commentators draw parallels with the COVID-19 crash, suggesting the market could recover without revisiting recent lows if momentum strengthens. However, other analysts warn that several bear-market signals are already visible, urging caution even if a final push higher is possible.

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Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $1.1 billion. According to Farside Investors, this was the fourth-largest weekly outflow on record. The outflows contributed to a 9.9% drop in Bitcoin’s price. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $95,740.

According to Matrixport, this correction signals the emergence of a “mini” bear market for Bitcoin. Analysts note that ETF outflows, long-term investors reducing their positions, and macroeconomic uncertainty make upcoming Federal Reserve decisions a key factor in the market’s direction.

Matrixport stated in a Friday X post, “Our data showed a market losing momentum and lacking the catalysts needed for a sustained rally.”

The platform added, “With ETF flows weakening, experienced investors reducing exposure, and macro conditions offering no immediate catalyst, the path forward remains highly dependent on upcoming policy decisions from the Federal Reserve.”

Critical Levels and Macro Impacts on the BTC Market

The significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that institutional demand for BTC has slowed in 2025. This situation places the market at a critical juncture for investors. In the coming weeks, whether BTC maintains its support and resistance levels will largely depend on macroeconomic signals and central bank policies.

Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs have continued to see positive inflows despite the broader market downturn. Since their launch on October 29, Solana ETFs have recorded 13 consecutive days of inflows, including $12 million on Friday. However, Solana’s price dropped 15% over the week. Similarly, Ether ETFs recorded a $177 million outflow on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive day of negative performance, with Ether’s price declining 11% weekly.

Institutional Demand and Investor Behavior

In 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investments have driven the majority of BTC demand. ETF outflows indicate a loss of short-term momentum and a cautious approach from investors. Analysts predict that investors will reassess their positions and closely monitor whether BTC can gain strength from macro catalysts.

Investors should focus on key technical levels and Federal Reserve policies. The cryptocurrency market is currently at a pivotal point, and upcoming moves will be decisive for both short- and long-term trends.

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The fee switch targets fraudulent pools on the Base chain. More than half of the total $208.07 billion trading volume was found to come from fake transactions. After activation, only $77.38 billion of legitimate volume remained. Additionally, the mechanism was integrated with UNI token burn process, reducing the token supply. This step enhanced market transparency and strengthened investor trust.

Institutional Investors Drive UNI Momentum

Institutional investors played an active role following the protocol changes. A total of 2.818 million UNI tokens were transferred via Coinbase Prime to Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Valued at approximately $27.08 million, this movement sparked market speculation and pushed UNI prices upward.

Although no official statement has been issued, blockchain analytics suggest that major investors, such as Variant Fund, could be behind the transfer. Institutional actions increase participation in Uniswap’s governance model, supporting decentralized decision-making in DeFi protocols.

Market Data and Investor Behavior

Uniswap’s current market capitalization stands at $5.93 billion. UNI rose 72.93% over the week, while its 90-day performance shows a 17.59% decline. Daily trading volume surged by 372.17%, and at the time of writing, UNI is trading at $8.42.

The fee switch and institutional token transfers have directly influenced market behavior. Eliminating fraudulent pools and implementing UNI burns boosted investor buying motivation. Furthermore, the “Growth Budget” and governance mechanisms strengthened community engagement. These changes reinforce UNI’s position as a leading decentralized exchange.

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What Is the Current Economic Outlook for the United States?

The current inflation rate in the United States is hovering around 3%. However, the FED’s target is to bring this figure down to approximately 2% annually. The interest rate applied to the U.S. dollar currently stands at around 4%. Considering the “stable but fragile” market conditions mentioned by the FED, it is expected that this rate may decline toward 3% in the near future.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which reached a historic peak of 14.9% in 2020, has since corrected to 4.3%. However, when examining the labor market over the past few months, little change is observed. Although progress continues, some FED officials consistently highlight that employment growth has slowed significantly — a trend that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Although the flames around tariffs seem to have cooled in recent months, tariff policies and global trade uncertainties will likely have a negative impact on inflation. This uncertainty appears poised to influence inflation in a positive direction.

You may also be interested in this article: Bitcoin’s Buy and Sell Ratio Turns Positive for the First Time: A Strong Bullish Signal

How Are the FED and Its Officials Interpreting the Situation?

• Philip Nathan Jefferson (FED Vice Chair):
  I supported the FOMC rate cut in October. Overall, the economy hasn’t changed much in recent months, but the lack of progress on inflation appears to stem from tariffs. Interest rates are close to neutral, so it’s better to move slowly.
• Michael Solomon Barr (FED Board Member):
  Progress has been made on inflation, but there’s still work to be done.
• Christopher J. Waller (FED Board Member):
  Stablecoins are not a threat to monetary policy.
• Beth M. Hammack (FED Bank President):
  I do not believe current economic data justify a rate hike. The people I’ve spoken with indicate that the labor market remains in an environment of low hiring and low layoffs. Keeping the Fed’s policy restrictive will help bring inflation down.

How Do Trump’s Trade Policies Affect the Economy?

Donald Trump referred to the ongoing legal process regarding tariffs and mentioned the need for new alternative plans. He stated that if the Supreme Court case ends unfavorably, an alternative plan is ready — though it would progress more slowly. FED officials may interpret the resulting price increases from these tariffs as renewed inflationary pressure. This is because, inevitably, import costs — and thus consumer prices — are likely to rise.

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