Weak Hands and Price Pressure

Over the past year, investors who purchased Bitcoin at higher costs closed positions at a loss as the price fell below the psychological $100,000 mark. Especially for holders in the 3–12 month range, this has been a real test. At this point, weak hands were liquidated while the market searched for a new support around $85,000–$90,000.

BTC prices briefly dropped to $87,700, while altcoins suffered even heavier losses; Ethereum fell over 5% in a single day. The pressure was not limited to spot markets; leveraged positions were also hit, with over $360 million in long positions liquidated. For traders using leverage, this represented a critical juncture.

Liquidity and Macroeconomic Pressures

The decline in stablecoin reserves on exchanges has constrained buying appetite, making short-term recovery more challenging. Institutional investors remain cautious, and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity policies, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, reinforce this stance.

The drop in the BTC/Gold ratio shows investors moving toward safe-haven assets. According to CryptoQuant’s Quicktake report, fear levels remain elevated. Selling pressure is evident in both spot and derivatives markets, complicating consolidation. Furthermore, the funding uncertainty and political deadlock fueling the potential U.S. government shutdown have added pressure to risky assets, and cryptocurrency is no exception. Polymarket indicates that the probability of this event has risen to 75%, keeping investors cautious.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

Bitcoin broke below the $86,800 support level, closing the day beneath it. Currently, a short-term rebound is in progress, but another downward leg is likely after some upward movement.

The initial target for this rebound is between $91,750–$93,450. Capturing this zone is important, though the market’s weakness makes it a challenging task. Meanwhile, the first major support for a potential reversal lies around $83,760–$84,630. If the price touches this zone, the resulting reaction will indicate whether a reversal is underway. For now, the main trend remains bearish, and there is no fundamental reason to support an upward move.

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