Big Investors Are Returning

Santiment analysts note that large wallets have remained mostly inactive, while small wallets accumulated aggressively in the second half of 2025. Historically, a bullish reversal often begins when big investors buy while retail sells. Long-term Bitcoin holders have also stopped offloading, after reducing their holdings from 14.8 million coins in July to 14.3 million in December.

“The second half of 2025 was dominated by aggressive accumulation from small wallets, while large wallets remained mostly flat, rising to October’s all-time high before facing selling pressure.”

The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind. Since November began, price performances are:

Gold: +9%
S&P 500: +1%
Bitcoin: -20%

Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play "catch up". pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025

Shift Back Into Crypto

Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin suggests investors are starting to move capital from other sectors back into crypto. On-chain analytics from Nansen show active Bitcoin addresses up 5.51% in the last 24 hours, while transaction volume fell nearly 30%. Jin commented, “Capital is the same; always sell high and buy low.”

Market Cycle and Outlook

Investor CyrilXBT said the market is in a “classic late-cycle positioning.” Once BTC breaks structure, gold is expected to cool, Bitcoin will lead, ETH will follow, and altcoins will finally awaken. The analyst added, “This phase is designed to test conviction,” urging patience.

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The post Bitcoin Below $88K: Crypto Could Bounce Back in 2026 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Coinbase Institutional has released its new monthly market outlook report. The report includes an analysis of the major crash that occurred on October 10, 2025. The report highlights the massive leverage wipeout on that date, stating the following:

It is noted that following the major liquidation wave on October 10, a significant amount of leverage was cleared from the crypto market, suggesting that this may have formed a short-term bottom.

In fact, it would be fair to say that the market didn’t break down—it simply reset. Existing leverage levels have returned to healthier levels, particularly through the liquidation of long positions. As a result, an upward trend may emerge in the coming months.

You may also be interested in this article: Zcash Rises to 13th Place in MarketCap Rankings!

According to analysts’ forecasts, Bitcoin’s price could see a bottom around $90,000 in the next 3–6 months, followed by a potential path toward $160,000. The Coinbase report states that this setup appears asymmetrically skewed to the upside. It also points out that upcoming Fed rate cuts, liquidity expansion, and new regulatory frameworks could extend the current market cycle into 2026.

The report emphasizes that the October 10 crash did not trigger any structural issues within the market. Instead, it is described as a necessary cleansing event. Although altcoins experienced sharp declines and market makers pulled back, Coinbase analysts believe the core fundamentals remain intact, adding:

“The sell-off brought leverage levels back to where they were at the beginning of the year, creating a healthier system. Going forward, we expect a gradual upward climb rather than a sharp run to new all-time highs.”

The report also highlights that the liquidation in high-risk altcoins was the largest in recent months, and institutional investors were largely insulated from this wave due to their lower leverage and focus on high-cap assets.

What Does Nansen’s Perspective Say About the Coinbase Report?

According to Nansen data, the so-called “smart money” is currently shifting toward EVM-based networks such as Ethereum and Arbitrum, while losses are being observed on Solana and Binance Smart Chain following the meme coin frenzy. Coinbase does not view this as a buying opportunity; rather, it interprets these flows as indicators of where market activity is concentrating.

The report suggests that the next major bullish wave is likely to be led by institutions. According to Coinbase, institutional investors were largely unaffected by the previous liquidation phase due to their conservative leverage and focus on large-cap assets. With institutional appetite expected to return, the market could regain strength — though this recovery might take several months.

Current Bitcoin Data

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Halving Cycle and 2025 Bitcoin Price 

In November 2022, Pantera Capital published an analysis mapping Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies. The analysis showed that returns decline in each four-year period. Considering the typical time between market bottoms and post-halving rallies, the firm predicted that BTC would reach $117,482 on August 11, 2025. According to Coin Metrics data, Bitcoin closed above $119,000 on that date. 

Bitbo data shows that when Pantera made its prediction, Bitcoin was trading below $16,000. Since then, BTC’s price has risen more than 660%, approaching the $120,000 mark. This rally once again confirmed the predictive power of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. 

Will Institutional Adoption Change the Cycles? 

However, some analysts argue that institutional adoption will alter this classic cycle. Since January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the fastest-growing ETFs in history. According to Bitbo, ETFs currently hold 7.1% of the total supply, or approximately 1.491 million BTC. In addition, public and private companies hold another 1.36 million BTC. 

Author and investor Jason Williams cited the rise in Bitcoin treasury-holding companies as evidence that “the four-year cycle is over.” Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard stated that halvings no longer impact trading volume. According to Rochard, 95% of BTC’s supply has already been mined, and market liquidity now comes mainly from OG investors, spot retail demand, ETPs, and corporate treasuries. 

Finally, Pantera Capital revealed in its blockchain newsletter that it has invested more than $300 million to date in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that hold large crypto reserves. The firm stated that DATs increase the number of tokens per share by generating yield, offering higher return potential than direct token holding or ETFs. 

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The post 2022 Warning Comes True in 2025: Pantera’s Bitcoin Prediction! appeared first on Coin Engineer.