Market Analysis and Historical Parallels

Cowen evaluates Bitcoin’s decline through the lens of the four-year cycle theory and macroeconomic factors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter following halving events. Previous cycles in 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle confirm this trend. However, Cowen highlights that this cycle is also influenced by macro conditions similar to 2019.

According to Cowen, the return-on-investment (ROI) curve from the bottom mirrors prior cycles. The 2016–2017 cycle lasted roughly 1,067 days, 2020–2021 about 1,059 days, and the current cycle around 1,062 days, showing Bitcoin’s cyclicality and historical price behavior remain relevant.

Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average

Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s inability to stay above its 50-week moving average (~$103,000) for several weeks would signal a key market pattern. Historically, similar behavior marked the 2021 peak.

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Retail Investor Apathy

Cowen highlights that the lack of an altcoin season underscores reduced retail participation. Social interest and investor behavior mirror the 2019 scenario, suggesting patience is crucial.

He also recalls that BTC peaked near the end of monetary tightening in 2019, followed by a weak period. Today, high interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and even if rates start falling, Bitcoin may not experience an immediate rebound.

Long-Term Opportunities

By analyzing past cycles, Cowen points out that patient investors often profit in bear markets. For example, early investors in the 2017 and 2021 cycles gained significant long-term returns despite missing short-term peaks. Similarly, investors who remain patient toward 2026 may find opportunities in Bitcoin.

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Ethereum’s surge past the $4,000 mark has significantly impacted Bitcoin’s dominance, which has fallen to 59.1%. According to CoinMarketCap, Ethereum’s market share has risen to 13%, while altcoins combined now hold 28% of the total market. A month ago, Bitcoin’s share stood at 63.9%, Ethereum at 9.7%, and other cryptocurrencies at 26.4%. 

Schiff stated that if forced to choose between the two, he would pick Bitcoin, while clarifying that he has no personal interest in owning either asset. 

Ethereum and Altcoins Gain Ground as BTC Weakens 

Market data shows Bitcoin dominance has dropped by 4.91 percentage points in the last month, while Ethereum gained 3.34 points. Altcoins collectively rose by 1.57 points in the same period, signaling a capital rotation from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies. 

Bitcoin’s highest dominance level in 2025 was 65.1% on June 27, while its lowest in the past year was 53.9% in December 2024. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading near the upper range of its yearly performance. 

Ethereum’s bullish momentum has been fueled by increased whale transactions and heightened derivatives market activity. Rising trading volumes and open interest have reinforced short-term price strength, enabling ETH to outperform BTC in recent days. 

Despite this shift, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and the preferred choice among institutional investors. Strong demand from spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasuries continues to support its position at prices above $100,000. 

In conclusion, while Ethereum and altcoins are gaining market share, Bitcoin still holds the lead. The next moves in dominance will likely depend on macroeconomic factors, institutional participation, and whether Ethereum can sustain its current rally. 

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First Target Nearly Hit—What’s Next?

Exactly one month ago, we highlighted that the bullish order block on the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart could lead to a move toward the 65.38% level. As of today, that target has almost been reached. Now, the focus shifts to whether BTC.D can break this level with volume and sustain its position above it.

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Should a breakout occur, the next resistance lies between the 67% and 68% range—potentially marking a new phase of dominance that could reshape short-term market dynamics.

Dominance Peaks Before Altseason?

Historically, strong peaks in Bitcoin Dominance have often preceded the onset of altcoin rallies. This makes the current rise more than just a BTC story—it could be an early signal of a broader market transition. Traders would be wise to monitor the dominance chart closely in the coming days.

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Changes in dominance often signal whether altcoins can breathe or get suppressed, making technical levels more significant than ever.

Strong Reaction From the Order Block Zone

The previously identified bullish order block has delivered. Bitcoin dominance received strong buying support from this area and has resumed its upward momentum. This move is shaping market expectations and risk perception across the board.

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If the current support holds, dominance may rise toward the 65.38% level — a scenario that favors Bitcoin’s continued market leadership.

Breakdown Could Signal Retreat

However, the continuation of this trend hinges on that critical support zone. A breakdown below this level could lead to a pullback toward the 62.80% mark. Such a move may offer temporary relief to the altcoin market.

Whether dominance climbs or corrects, its movements carry broader implications for the entire crypto ecosystem. These levels deserve close attention.

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The post New Momentum in Bitcoin Dominance: Key Support Zone Triggers Bounce appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin Price and Transaction Fees Rise 

Bitcoin’s price hit $105,600 on May 12 before reaching $106,000 on Sunday. However, it soon dropped to $104,500. Despite this, transaction fees continue to climb. The Block’s seven-day moving average data shows fees have reached $2.40. Additionally, Bitcoin’s market dominance has recovered after a decline two weeks ago, indicating a liquidity-driven fluctuation. Dominance peaked at 64.4% on May 8 but fell to 61% by May 19. This coincided with Ethereum (ETH) increasing its market dominance to 9.75% and altcoins rising to 22.35%. Stablecoins’ total market dominance dropped to 6.3%. 

Transaction Count Drops While Supply Tightens 

Despite rising fees, the daily transaction count is declining. The average transaction count, which was 507,000 in April, dropped 35% to 330,000. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s illiquid supply—a measure of BTC held in wallets with minimal spending activity—is increasing. Exchange supply is decreasing, and this metric recently hit a new all-time high. This could create a supply shock if demand rises. 

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Following its crash to $1,400 on April 9, ETH has now rebounded by nearly 30%, leading analysts to suggest that the worst may be behind for the world’s second-largest crypto asset.

Dominance Recovery And Technical Setup

Crypto analyst “Rekt Capital” highlighted that ETH market dominance had fallen to 7%, matching 2019 lows. However, by April 23, that share rebounded above 7.5%, signaling a bounce from a critical support level.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research stated that the market was heavily shorted, fueling a potential “short squeeze.” Technically, Ethereum was in an oversold zone on both daily and weekly timeframes, creating the perfect condition for a rebound.

An upcoming mainnet upgrade is also acting as a bullish catalyst, restoring confidence in Ethereum and signaling renewed strength in the crypto market.

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