Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of Alphractal, highlighted three key metrics in a post on the X platform: the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Oscillator, the Long-Term Stablecoin Ratio Channel, and the Short-Term Stablecoin Ratio Channel. None of these indicators are currently signaling overbought conditions, providing a favorable market outlook for investors. 

What Do Stablecoin Metrics Mean for Bitcoin? 

Stablecoin data is becoming increasingly popular for measuring market movements. The SSR Oscillator evaluates Bitcoin’s market cap relative to stablecoin liquidity. This indicator uses the 200-day moving average and standard deviation to signal when Bitcoin is undervalued or when the market is overheated. According to Alphractal, the SSR Oscillator has yet to issue a sell signal. 

3 Stablecoin Metrics That Indicate: The Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Over!
In the cryptocurrency universe, finding reliable signals is like striking gold. At Alphractal, we’ve developed powerful oscillators that correlate Bitcoin with stablecoins, generating alpha signals that few in… pic.twitter.com/9kRPjE2V5H

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) June 29, 2025

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel offers two perspectives: the long-term view helps investors assess whether Bitcoin is fairly valued, supporting strategic decision-making. Meanwhile, the short-term view offers momentum-based signals through oscillation frequency, benefiting traders who operate on daily or weekly timeframes. 

Wedson’s charts show multiple “buy” signals since the start of 2025, reinforcing investor optimism. Ethereum’s 37.04% increase over the same period further supports this positive outlook. 

Regulatory Risks and the $2 Trillion Stablecoin Market 

Despite the strong performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum, certain risks remain. Notably, regulations from major economies like the U.S. and the European Union targeting the stablecoin market could impact the broader crypto space. 

However, low interest rates continue to support a favorable investment environment. The U.S. Treasury projects that the stablecoin market could soon reach a valuation of $2 trillion—highlighting its vast potential. 

Both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have shown strength in Q2 2025. As stablecoin metrics continue to emit bullish signals, investor attention is increasingly turning toward this sector. 

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What is the Stablecoin Ratio Channel? 

The Stablecoin Ratio Channel tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and the supply of stablecoins. This ratio is used to assess market liquidity and investor risk appetite. The short-term version of the SRC is sensitive to sudden changes in Bitcoin’s price and indicates whether selling pressure is increasing. 

What Do Short-Term Indicators Say? 

According to Alphractal, the short-term version of the SRC currently signals increasing selling pressure. This coincides with Bitcoin facing strong resistance in the $113,000–$114,000 range. Investors appear to be shifting from BTC to stablecoins at these levels. 

Long-Term Outlook 

On the other hand, the long-term SRC indicator is only halfway through its cycle. In past market cycles, this level typically signaled healthy corrections in bull markets and selling pressure in bear markets. According to the long-term version of the SRC, Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bull cycle. The trend has not yet reached its peak. Therefore, Alphractal analysts interpret the current situation not as negative but as a potential reaccumulation phase. 

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has risen to 5.3. This means that BTC reserves on exchanges are five times higher than stablecoin reserves, suggesting that potential selling pressure may outweigh buying pressure. 

According to Alphractal’s analysis, there is increasing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). However, long-term indicators suggest we are still in the middle of a cycle, and these levels have historically signaled healthy corrections. 

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