Bitcoin and Long-Term Technical Levels

Bitcoin has dropped below its 365-day moving average (around $102,000), losing a key support level. This technical breakdown historically aligns with the onset of bear markets.

• Price action below the 365-day MA

• Risk signal compared to historical cycles

• Pressure on investor confidence

Additionally, BTC approaching the 6–12 month UTXO cost basis indicates mid-term market stress. This development calls for investors to watch closely for potential bear market risks or a bullish market rebound.

Market Sentiment and RSI Indicators

The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 10, signaling extreme fear. Similar levels in the past preceded short-term bear trends or mid-cycle corrections.

RSI readings show most crypto assets in oversold territory. BTC and major altcoins have an average RSI of 43, reminiscent of mid-cycle corrections seen in May–July 2021 and August 2023.

On the other hand, some altcoins and short-term BTC movements hint at a possible bullish market recovery.

MACD and Market Momentum Analysis

The market-wide normalized MACD averages 0.02, reflecting weak bullish momentum. About 58% of assets still show positive momentum.

Bitcoin remains in negative MACD territory, while altcoins show a mixed picture. This indicates the market is still in a mid-cycle breakdown, with both bear and bull market possibilities present.

Critical Criteria for Bear and Bull Markets

Certain technical indicators are crucial to confirm a definitive bear or bull phase:

• BTC remaining below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks → Bear market confirmation

• Long-term holders selling over 1M BTC in 60 days → Bear pressure

• MACD flipping entirely negative or positive across the market → Bear or bull momentum

These conditions are not fully met yet, so the market remains in a high-risk transitional phase.

While the crypto market has not officially entered a bear market, it is experiencing mid-cycle stress. BTC and altcoins are under technical pressure, and investors should monitor both bear market pressures and potential bullish recoveries carefully.

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