That scenario undermines the assumption that an era of cheap money is close at hand. For Bitcoin, whose bullish narrative has leaned heavily on falling inflation and faster rate cuts, the timing now looks far less certain. As inflation risks rebuild, the Federal Reserve’s room to ease policy appears increasingly constrained.

Inflation Pressures Are Re-Emerging

According to the analysis, several structural forces are resurfacing. Tariffs introduced during the Trump administration, tighter labor markets, and persistent fiscal deficits are regaining influence. Crucially, the authors argue that importers have not yet fully passed tariff-related costs on to consumers.

Posen and Orszag estimate that this delayed cost pass-through could be largely completed by mid-2026. When it is, headline inflation may receive an additional 50 basis point boost. At the same time, immigration policies and widening budget gaps risk offsetting productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin and Bonds Face the Same Constraint

Rising Treasury yields reinforce this message. The U.S. 10-year yield recently climbed to 4.31%, its highest level in five months, reducing the appeal of risk assets. Analysts at crypto exchange Bitunix warn that easing policy before structural inflation pressures clearly subside could force a sharper adjustment later.

Bitcoin bulls continue to price in aggressive rate cuts. However, inflation that remains near or above 4% weakens that thesis. As borrowing costs stay elevated, liquidity-driven rallies become harder to sustain.

At this stage, the core risk is not price alone but timing. If inflation fails to cool as expected, the recovery narrative for crypto assets may be delayed rather than denied.

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Following the post, Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio was back in focus. Current data shows the company holds approximately $61.25 billion in BTC. This highlights why Saylor’s short yet familiar social media phrasing draws such close attention.

Why “Big Orange” Attracts Close Watch

Michael Saylor has historically used similar phrases before Bitcoin purchases. As a result, markets have grown accustomed to reading such posts as signals. To be clear, the message itself does not contain an explicit announcement. Yet past examples suggest this silence rarely lasts long.

Indeed, on January 5, Strategy purchased 1,286 BTC, spending $116 million at an average price of $88,568 per coin. This move continued the accumulation trend seen in the early days of the year.

At the end of December, between December 29–31, the company added 3 BTC. In the first four days of January, a further 1,283 BTC was acquired at an average of $90,391. Strategy maintained its buying discipline despite price fluctuations.

Where Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Stand

Current data indicates Strategy holds a total of 673,783 BTC, purchased at a total cost of $50.55 billion. The average cost per coin stands at $75,026, underlining the company’s long-term view.

According to SEC filings, a significant portion of these holdings was funded by selling MSTR shares. By July, roughly two million shares had been sold, generating $312.2 million in net proceeds. Both balance sheet risks and timing choices remain closely monitored.

Meanwhile, MSCI’s decision to abandon planned index changes has slightly reduced uncertainty around Strategy shares. The previously discussed risk of exclusion from the index seems temporarily off the table.

Bitcoin Price Stalemate Draws Attention

On the technical side, Bitcoin remains indecisive. Analyst Ted shared on X that prices are oscillating in the $90,500–$91,000 range. Resistance appears near $92,000, while support lies between $88,000–$88,500.

The $88,000 level overlaps with a CME gap, creating structural support. Market sentiment is split—some anticipate a bullish breakout, while others weigh a potential downward move.

Additionally, rising US–Iran geopolitical tensions add external pressure that could affect risk appetite. Whether Bitcoin can remain flat under these circumstances will become clearer in the coming days.

For now, the picture remains uncertain. Saylor’s timing, however, has sparked expectations that this quiet phase may not last long. All eyes remain on potential updates.

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