A Strange Energy in Gold Markets After a Historic Collapse

Following a historic crash, the gold market is showing unusual momentum. The metal briefly surpassed $5,600 per ounce, then experienced one of the sharpest daily declines in decades; yet investors continue to aggressively bet on gold reaching $20,000. December 15,000–20,000 USD gold call option spreads have accumulated around 11,000 contracts, indicating serious positioning on such high-priced instruments.

In January 2026, metal futures volumes at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 86%, prompting 38 regulatory interventions. Analysts remain divided: some foresee a long-term bull market, while others warn of risks from excessive speculative positioning.

Walter Bloomberg commented, “$20,000 gold option contracts continue rising despite the record selling wave. Even after a historic correction, high-priced bullish bets are increasing. Prices may consolidate around $5,000, but roughly 11,000 contracts are in play.” This highlights the scale of positions taken far from current prices.

Speculation and Macroeconomics: Drivers Behind the Rally

These high-risk trades function like low-cost, high-potential bets. For these spreads to end profitably, gold would need to nearly triple by December, requiring a major macroeconomic or geopolitical shock. However, these positions are already influencing market psychology, increasing implied volatility and fueling aggressive upward demand.

Macro analyst Michael van de Poppe stated, “Gold may consolidate for 1–2 years in the short term, but that doesn’t mean we are not in a bigger bull market. Actually, we are. That’s why I plan to buy gold during a 30–50% drop ahead.” This view reflects growing belief that gold’s rise is driven by structural changes in the global financial system, not just cyclical factors.

Short-Term Volatility and Risks

While long-term bullish expectations remain, short-term volatility stays high. Commodity strategist Ole Hansen noted that falling US inflation and declining bond yields have supported gold, but trading volume and liquidity in China can significantly affect short-term prices.

The rally in metals coincides with a surge in speculative activity in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin futures in China. Exchanges tightened margin requirements and trading rules repeatedly, showing the market is overheating. Additionally, central bank diversification and China’s shift from US Treasuries to gold reinforce macro-geopolitical support for demand.

However, not all are convinced of sustainability. Commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that excessive positioning has historically preceded corrections, and high volatility plus speculative flows could leave markets vulnerable if macro conditions change.

Gold Price Pullback: February 17, 2026 Analysis

Holiday quiet in Asian markets and a strong dollar continue to weigh on gold. Fell nearly 1% to $4,947, April US gold futures dropped 1.6% to $4,966.

Three key reasons for the decline stand out: a stronger dollar, low trading volumes in China and neighboring markets, and easing geopolitical tensions. According to CME FedWatch, the market expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed this year. Normally this would support gold, but the dollar’s resilience is currently offsetting that effect.

Silver followed a similar path, dropping roughly 2.7% due to dollar pressure. Investors now await market direction after the holiday, with eyes on upcoming Fed minutes and US GDP data.

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The company noted that the loss does not impact operational cash flow and is recorded only as a “non-operating expense” in accounting. Following the impairment, Metaplanet reported a consolidated ordinary loss of ¥98.56 billion ($640 million) and a net loss of ¥76.63 billion ($498 million). This translates into a comprehensive loss of ¥54.02 billion ($351 million) attributable to shareholders. Final results are scheduled for release on February 16.

In a statement, the company said, “Short-term accounting volatility is inherent in our business model. Our medium- to long-term BTC accumulation and capital strategy remain on track.”

By the end of 2025, Metaplanet held 35,102 BTC, up from just 1,762 BTC a year earlier. According to CEO Simon Gerovich, the company spent $451.06 million in Q4 2025 at an average price of $105,412 per BTC. Bitcoin traded at around $87,500 on December 31, 2025.

Valuation Losses and Financial Overview

Interestingly, despite these losses, Metaplanet revised its 2025 revenue forecasts upward. The company saw stronger-than-expected returns from bitcoin derivatives and options strategies (Bitcoin Income Generation).

• Revenue: ¥8.9 billion ($57.8 million), up 31% from previous estimate of ¥6.8 billion ($44 million)

• Operating income: ¥6.3 billion ($41 million), up 33.8% from ¥4.7 billion ($30.5 million)

Growth was supported by a new share issuance and a $500 million credit facility. Metaplanet said, “We were able to deploy capital more flexibly than anticipated and allocated more resources to the Bitcoin Income Generation Business.”

For fiscal 2026, Metaplanet expects:

• Revenue: ¥16 billion ($104 million), up 79.7%

• Operating income: ¥11.4 billion ($74 million), up 81.3%

• Bitcoin Income Generation contribution: ¥15.6 billion ($101.3 million)

Metaplanet’s Tokyo-listed shares fell 7.03% to ¥476 today, while its U.S. OTC-traded shares rose 1.56% on Friday to $3.26.

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Large Wallets Are Building Positions

On-chain data shows that whales are meaningfully increasing their XRP holdings. The 50 million XRP surge appears more aligned with long-term strategy than short-term speculation.

Despite price fluctuations, these purchases are not coincidental. Large investors tend to build positions during periods of high volatility, suggesting the current price range is perceived as a “risk-adjusted opportunity” by some players.

Retail Investors Also Join the Trend

Accumulation is not limited to whales. According to TheCryptoBasic, retail wallets and whales together have acquired over $1 billion worth of XRP since early 2026.

This trend indicates the market narrative is not one-sided. Small investors often step in during quiet confidence phases before major price moves. In this period, accumulation clearly outweighs distribution.

XRP ETF Flows Begin to Stabilize

Coin Bureau reports that after $40.8 million in net ETF outflows last week, flows have returned to positive territory. This shift may strengthen investor confidence, especially among more traditional participants.

Stabilizing ETF activity could influence overall liquidity behavior in the market. However, it does not guarantee immediate price gains; instead, it signals a gradual restoration of investor trust.

Price Remains Steady Amid Attention

Despite these developments, XRP’s price remains relatively stable. The token traded at $2.06 with a minor 0.04% drop over the past 24 hours, while daily volume exceeded $1.37 billion, reflecting sustained market interest.

Whale buying continues, but the market’s reaction—timing and intensity—remains uncertain. The accumulation phase is far from over, making the coming days critical in determining the asset’s next directional moves.

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Monday: Early Crypto Movements

• Zama will kick off the week with its auction-style token sale.

• Investors will closely watch the $QTUM hard fork.

• Moreover, Optimism founders will host a Space to discuss $OP buyback programs.

• Meanwhile, Trump’s call for a 10% credit card rate cap may trigger early market reactions.

Tuesday: US Data and Investor Meetings

• The US will release December CPI data at 16:30 (expected 2.7%, previous 2.7%).

• Nasdaq-listed Rezolve AI will host an investor briefing following its Subsquid ($SQD) acquisition.

• In addition, Florida will discuss its Bitcoin Reserve Plan, potentially marking the state’s first institutional crypto initiative.

• Consequently, Rezolve AI’s briefing may also influence the AI sector.

Wednesday: Fed and Key Legal Decisions

• At 16:30, the US will publish November PPI data.

• Then, the FED will release the Beige Book at 22:00.

• Additionally, the US Supreme Court will rule on Trump’s tariff case, which could cause sudden market swings.

• Meanwhile, FED will complete its $40B treasury bond purchase, affecting liquidity and rate expectations.

• BNB Chain will implement the Fermi Hard Fork, enhancing transaction efficiency and network capacity.

Thursday: Corporate Earnings and Regulatory Moves

• BlackRock will announce its earnings report.

• Bitmine (BMNR), which holds large ETH reserves, will host an investor meeting, closely followed by the market.

• Furthermore, the US Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act, aiming to eliminate fake volumes and shadow reserves.

• As a result, this process may boost market transparency and investor confidence.

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The move signals a broader shift in margin liquidity management and comes as Binance continues to refine its stablecoin-based trading structure.

FDUSD Pairs to Be Removed from Cross Margin

EIGEN/FDUSD, ARB/FDUSD, TRUMP/FDUSD, POL/FDUSD, ATOM/FDUSD, LDO/FDUSD, SHIB/FDUSD, RAY/FDUSD, GALA/FDUSD, PEPE/FDUSD

FDUSD Pairs to Be Removed from Isolated Margin

EIGEN/FDUSD, ARB/FDUSD, POL/FDUSD, ATOM/FDUSD, LDO/FDUSD, SHIB/FDUSD, GALA/FDUSD, PEPE/FDUSD

Once the delisting takes effect, users will no longer be able to open new margin positions for these pairs. Existing positions must be closed in advance to avoid automatic settlement or forced liquidation once trading support ends.

Why it matters?

FDUSD has been positioned as an alternative USD-pegged stablecoin within major exchange ecosystems. Removing multiple FDUSD margin pairs suggests that margin liquidity is being reconcentrated toward higher-volume stablecoins, while exposure to lower-demand margin pairs is being reduced.

Such margin adjustments are typically associated with risk optimization, especially during periods of changing volatility dynamics or stablecoin allocation strategies. While spot trading remains unaffected, margin-driven volume contractions can still lead to short-term price inefficiencies in the affected assets.

Market participants are expected to closely monitor whether further FDUSD-related margin updates follow in the coming days.

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Monday and Tuesday: Crypto Network Upgrades Kick Off

The first two days of the week emphasize technical developments rather than macroeconomic data. On Monday, MegaETH is expected to launch its Frontier mainnet, accelerating the goal of building a high-performance Ethereum-compatible network. On the same day, Enjin Coin will implement the Sentoss upgrade, aiming to increase network capacity and stabilize asset management.

Tuesday, Horizen will officially launch on the Base network, expanding the ecosystem’s accessibility. Blockchain activity is expected to rise during this period. Additionally, the JOLTS job openings data will be released, reflecting hiring trends and potentially influencing market expectations.

Wednesday: FED Decision and Crypto Developments Coincide

Wednesday could see the most significant price movements. The FED will announce its interest rate decision at 22:00, with the expectation at 3.75%, down from the previous 4%. Markets continue to price in a third rate cut. Following the announcement, FED Chair Powell will speak at 22:30, a statement that often determines market volatility.

The same day, Aster will launch its Season 4 buyback program, signaling an increase in token burn rates. Celo will implement the Jello Hardfork, expected to improve network security and transaction consistency. The coincidence of these developments with economic data could accelerate crypto price movements.

Thursday: TCMB Rate, Solana Breakpoint, and Key Legal Decision

On Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00, with the expectation at 38.5%, down from the previous 39.5%. The decision may trigger a new directional search in Turkish lira assets. Additionally, the U.S. will release the OPEC monthly report, unemployment claims, and a 30-year bond auction, all of which directly impact the dollar index and risk appetite.

One of the most notable events is the U.S. prosecutors’ announcement regarding the Do Kwon case, where a 12-year prison sentence has been requested. This decision may have a significant psychological effect on sector confidence. Meanwhile, the Solana Breakpoint event begins, a key calendar item watched by investors as it defines the network’s vision.

Key highlights this week:

• MegaETH Frontier mainnet launch

• FED and TCMB interest rate decisions

• Solana Breakpoint event

• Do Kwon case decision

• Celo Jello Hardfork update

The dense schedule of economic data and protocol upgrades could result in high volatility in both crypto and traditional markets. Investors need to closely monitor fundamental factors shaping price movements during this period.

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We will keep the stock market at an all-time high.

With this promise, he once again gives hope to those already in the market or considering entering, possibly triggering another upward move. However, investors still hold one major doubt and one crucial question: How realistic are these words? Looking at today’s economic landscape, it is quite clear that there is a significant gap between what is being said and what is actually happening.

What Changed When Donald Trump Took Office?

In 2025, Donald Trump made numerous statements about the economy and initiated several actions—many of which, so to speak, backfired and painted markets in red. Despite the negative impact of his trade tariffs and policies on many sectors, he insisted that the U.S. stock market was “stronger” and that his intention was to keep it elevated. He even emphasized that everyone should remember how U.S. markets reached record highs earlier this year. While some investors criticize Trump’s approach, could the so-called “Trump effect” actually have had a positive influence?

However, despite these claims, the markets have frequently experienced major instability. Starting from the early months of 2025, U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines due to imposed tariffs, global trade tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. In fact, double-digit losses were not uncommon.

You may also be interested in this article: Silver Ounce Price Races Toward a Record!

Can Donald Trump Really Keep the Market at Its Peak?

High market prices are not sustained by statements alone. Although remarks can create short-term upward or downward movements, real market direction is driven by the following factors:

• Economic Data
• Global Balances
• Corporate Earnings Reports
• Interest – Inflation Rates
• Global Trade

These variables are the true determinants of market direction. Therefore, when a leader says “I will keep the stock market at its peak,” it naturally raises significant, and often unanswered, questions.

Recently, margin debt reached an all-time high. Margin debt represents the amount of money investors borrow from brokerage firms through margin accounts. This indicator is often used to evaluate potential market tops and bottoms. When margin debt hits a record level and the markets also reach record highs, the situation is commonly described as a “reflex” move or even a “bubble.” Under such circumstances, how convincing can Trump’s claim really be?

Periods like these offer the potential for high profits but carry equally high risks. They cannot be sustained by a single political statement.

For the latest cryptocurrency news, click here.

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The recent spike in USDT.D signals that investors are shifting funds from risky assets to stablecoins, creating a potential inflection point for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Resistance Level and Technical Outlook

USDT dominance is nearing a descending long-term trend line, historically acting as a resistance zone. A rejection at this level could indicate that Bitcoin has reached or is close to a market bottom. Conversely, breaking this resistance could trigger further outflows from risky assets, deepening price corrections across cryptocurrencies.

Technical analysts are closely monitoring the head-and-shoulders pattern and trading volume. These indicators are critical to gauge investor sentiment and anticipate potential short-term volatility.

Implications for Bitcoin and Altcoins

When USDT.D rises, it shows that investors are moving into cash and stablecoins, signaling risk aversion. Conversely, a drop in USDT.D often leads funds back into risky assets, with Bitcoin typically leading the recovery followed by altcoins.

Therefore, USDT dominance is a key liquidity indicator for the entire crypto market. If the resistance holds, smaller-cap altcoins could outperform, while a decisive breakout may trigger a short-term sell-off, especially among lower-cap assets.

Investors should prioritize risk management and monitor USDT.D alongside Bitcoin price movements. Confirming a sustainable recovery requires additional signals, such as declining trading volume or clear reversal candlesticks.

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Launched in October 2025, the x402 list allows users to explore newly listed tokens. The list has triggered high volatility and rapid market movements, particularly for tokens in the Base ecosystem. Users can now browse and trade new tokens directly through the Market tab.

x402 is not just a listing feature. It is an HTTP-based open payment protocol developed by Coinbase and other tech companies. It enables microtransactions without creating an account, API keys, or subscriptions, aiming to become the “native internet payment infrastructure” for the crypto world.

Early Access to Altcoins via Binance x402 List

The x402 list has caused sudden spikes in trading volume, doubling the market capitalization of certain Base tokens. Notably, CryptoPing (PING) experienced a 970% surge in 24-hour trading volume after being featured. This reflects growing speculative interest and increased volatility among Binance users.

Launching x402 has also resulted in noticeable price swings within the Base ecosystem. CoinMarketCap data shows that PING saw a significant rise but later dropped 25.52%, settling at around $36 million. These movements demonstrate the high volatility new token listings can generate.

Although community and industry reactions have been mostly positive, Binance executives have not issued an official statement. The focus around x402 remains on user interface improvements rather than protocol changes, highlighting the list’s role in enhancing user experience.

Benefits of x402 List for Early Altcoin Discovery

Binance Wallet users can discover the latest tokens and trade them immediately via the x402 list. It is an effective tool for tracking fast-moving Base ecosystem tokens and market trends.

• x402 list allows real-time tracking of new tokens

• Easy access via the Market tab

• Monitor high liquidity and volatility in Base tokens

• Curated token list for speculative opportunities

These features help users make faster, informed investment decisions and accelerate token discovery trends within the crypto community.

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The sharp decline over the past two days has slowed, giving the market a temporary breather. This pause has provided cryptocurrencies a chance to regain momentum. However, a break below support could trigger another pullback toward $3.81 trillion. Investors are closely monitoring potential moves within this range. 

In the altcoin sector, a different picture emerged. According to Binance data, sharp movements were recorded. The biggest losers included SKALE (SKL), dropping 23.43%, followed by Juventus Fan Token (JUV) with a 12.96% loss, and EigenLayer (EIGEN) falling 9.37%. Syntropy (SXT) also fell 9.03%, while Arbitrum (ARB) declined 8.51%, and AS Roma Fan Token (ASR) dropped 8.24%. 

On the other hand, the top gainers were led by Measurable Data Token (MDT), soaring 47.06%. Alpine F1 Team Fan Token (ALPINE) followed with a strong 42.19% rise. Additionally, LATAM Airlines (LA) gained 28.34% and Porto Fan Token (PORTO) climbed 18.62%. 

Meanwhile, the industry saw significant developments. Gemini submitted an S-1 filing for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker GEMI, planned for 2025. Giants like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are leading the process. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 and its developer A7 LLC, targeting Russia’s attempts to bypass financial restrictions through crypto. 

Bitcoin Price at $117,500 Support 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,547. The $117,261 support line is a critical threshold. As long as this level holds, BTC maintains strong bullish momentum. 

The RSI indicator is in the positive zone, signaling buyer dominance. This opens the possibility of Bitcoin retesting $120,000. However, if selling pressure rises, the price could fall below $117,261. In such a scenario, losses toward $115,000 may accelerate. 

Ultimately, the market’s direction depends on whether key support levels hold. In the short term, these price moves will directly shape investor strategies. 

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