Throughout the week, crypto prices have largely remained flat, with a slight increase on Friday. Total market capitalization has risen by $150 billion since Monday, though trading volumes and volatility remain subdued.

Bitcoin Options and Market Dynamics

This week’s Bitcoin options have a put/call ratio of around 0.97, meaning longs and shorts are closely matched. According to Coinglass, the “max pain” level is around $69,000. Many options expiring today are close to profitable levels, meaning investors could realize gains from their contracts.

Open interest (OI) on Deribit is highest at the $60,000 strike, with approximately $1.7 billion in bearish bets. Total Bitcoin options OI across all exchanges has climbed to $45.5 billion this March.

Greeks Live observed the market recovery, noting that Bitcoin has remained above the $70,000 psychological level and is “now poised to challenge $75,000.” Additionally, the flat forward implied volatility curve beyond March shows no significant premium for longer-dated options, suggesting balanced risk pricing.

On the Ethereum side, around 185,000 contracts are expiring, with a total value of $382 million, max pain at $2,000, and a put/call ratio of 1.2. Total ETH options OI across exchanges is around $7.9 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiring today to $2.3 billion.

Spot Markets and Altcoins

Spot markets also recorded gains, with total capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion, marking a weekly high.

Bitcoin tested the $72,000 level in early trading but faced resistance and pulled back. Ether rose about 4%, surpassing $2,100.

Altcoins mostly showed positive performance, with notable gains for Solana, Hyperliquid, Avalanche, and Sui. Pi Network (PI) jumped 33% to $0.29 following its Kraken listing.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today represent a total notional value of $2.3 billion. Max pain levels are near current prices, highlighting potential price pressure in the options market. Spot market movements remain limited, but psychological levels should be monitored.

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Today, February 27, 2026, approximately 115,500 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, with a notional value around $7.8 billion. This is unusually large due to the month-end close. Spot markets may see movement, but panic is unlikely.

What Are Options? Explained with Crypto

Options give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price in the future.

For example, Bitcoin is currently $67,000. You buy an option saying, “I want the right to purchase Bitcoin at $70,000 in one month,” paying a small premium for this right.

Scenario A (Price rises): Bitcoin reaches $75,000. You exercise your option and buy at $70,000, making a profit.

Scenario B (Price falls): Bitcoin drops to $65,000. You don’t exercise the option. You only lose the premium, avoiding a higher purchase price.

• Call option: Right to buy BTC or ETH at a set price.

• Put option: Right to sell BTC or ETH at a set price.

This mechanism helps investors hedge against price swings and allows analysts to gauge market risk and volatility.

Bitcoin Options

Bitcoin’s put/call ratio is 0.76, meaning more call contracts than puts. Coinglass reports a max pain level near $75,000, indicating many contracts may expire worthless.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated at $60,000 with $1.5B and $50,000 with $1.1B on Deribit. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges reached $37B this month. Deribit analysts note, “In the current downtrend, protective and bearish strategies are expected.”

According to Greeks Live, call OI dominates, and Bitcoin carries the largest notional weight into expiry. Options expiring account for about 20% of total OI, with BTC nearing a multi-year high share.

$9 Billion Expiry – How Will Bitcoin React?

BTC is trading well below the $75,000 max pain level. As a result, market makers may apply upward pressure on spot prices to reduce losses. However, the lack of fresh capital and continued bearish sentiment suggest that even after expiry, volatility may decrease while prices remain suppressed around $67,000.

Ethereum Options

Ethereum also faces significant expiry, with 477,000 contracts worth $963M. Max pain is $2,200, and the put/call ratio is 0.77. Total ETH OI across exchanges is around $6.6B, bringing the total crypto options expiry to roughly $9B.

Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $8.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$7.8B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K $ETH: ~$961M notional | Put/Call: 0.77 | Max Pain: $2,200

Call OI dominates across both assets, with BTC carrying… pic.twitter.com/5r8MjeQtJ9

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 26, 2026

Spot Market Outlook

Currently, markets are red. Total capitalization has dropped below $2.4 trillion. Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,000, dipping to $67,000 in early Asian trading. Ethereum hovers around $2,000, with the risk of dropping below.

Bitcoin shows 66,300 call contracts vs. 48,405 puts, and Ethereum 268,642 calls vs. 210,350 puts. Calls dominate in both, which could amplify spot market reactions if hedging flows intensify.

Recently, the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH moved from -30 to around -8/-9, showing reduced demand for panic protection. However, skew remains negative; the market is still in bear mode. Implied volatility rose over the last two days (BTC 47%, ETH 65%), but overall confidence remains low.

Analysts highlight that the crypto market lacks fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, while pessimistic sentiment dominates social media. Spot prices are trading below max pain, indicating limited short-term upside potential.

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Crypto markets have lost about $215 billion this week. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.5–3.75%, well above the 2% target, adding pressure to markets. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also reignited, increasing investor anxiety.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s large Bitcoin options batch shows a 0.54 put/call ratio, meaning calls (longs) exceed puts (shorts). According to Coinglass, the “max pain” level is around $90,000, above current spot prices, leaving many contracts out of the money at expiry.

The highest open interest (OI) is at $100,000, with roughly $1.9 billion of options on Deribit. Additionally, over $1 billion in OI exists at $75,000, $80,000, and $85,000, showing growing bearish bets.

Options Expiry Alert

At 8:00 UTC tomorrow, over $9.5B in crypto options are set to expire.$BTC: $8.27B notional | Put/Call: 0.54 | Max Pain: $90K$ETH: $1.27B notional | Put/Call: 0.74 | Max Pain: $3.1K

BTC is trading sideways just under $90K going into expiry, while… pic.twitter.com/vEXRIaIreO

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) January 29, 2026

Total Bitcoin options OI across all exchanges has been rising since the start of the year, reaching $58 billion. Deribit warns that “expiry could amplify moves around key max pain zones,” which aligns with recent spot market declines. Ethereum also faces 440,000 expiring contracts, valued at $1.3 billion, max pain at $3,100, and a 0.74 put/call ratio. Total ETH options OI across exchanges is around $35 billion.

In total, crypto options expiries this week reach $9.6 billion in notional value.

Spot Market Outlook

Crypto markets tumbled during Friday morning’s Asia session, with total capitalization dropping below $3 trillion, the lowest since mid-December. Bitcoin broke support, falling 8% to $81,300, the lowest since April, while Ether dropped 9% to around $2,700. Altcoins saw double-digit losses, confirming a bear market trend.

Analysts note that the options expiry could increase volatility in spot markets, especially near max pain levels, potentially triggering sharp sell-offs.

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Bullish Trend and Institutional Positions in Bitcoin

Bitcoin options dominate the market with a total value of approximately $1.87 billion. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,972, just above the max pain level of $88,000. Open interest shows 14,194 call contracts versus 6,806 put contracts, totaling 21,001 contracts and a put-call ratio of 0.48.

Institutional activity in block trades accounts for 36.4% of call contracts and 24.9% of puts. This indicates that the market is positioned more for upward expectations rather than short-term hedging. Option volume is particularly concentrated in the March and June 2026 maturities.

Cautious Optimism in Ethereum

Ethereum options have a total notional value of approximately $395.7 million. ETH is trading around $3,023, slightly above the max pain level of $2,950. Open interest includes 80,957 calls versus 49,998 puts, totaling 130,955 contracts with a put-call ratio of 0.62.

In addition, call contracts account for 73.7% of Ethereum block trade volume. This suggests that investors are taking strategic, longer-term positions rather than short-term speculative bets. Options remain active across quarterly maturities throughout the year, signaling an expectation of broader upward movement.

Expiry Risks and Volatility Outlook

Option expiries typically trigger market fluctuations. As contracts close, investors must either exercise positions or let them lapse, which often aligns prices near max pain levels and reduces payout obligations for option sellers.

High concentration of expiring contracts can weaken price stability. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices stray from key levels, volatility may rise. Bullish momentum appears strong. However, as investors roll positions and reassess risk, short-term pressure may occur. Bitcoin’s high call contracts and Ethereum’s heavy block trade calls suggest that upward movement could gain speed.

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BTC Options 

• Expiry: August 22, 2025 
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.66 
• Max Pain Level: $118,000 
• Notional Value: $3.82 billion 
• Expired Contracts: 34,000 

BTC’s short-term implied volatility (IV) rose above 35%, showing a strong recovery. This indicates high market expectations for price fluctuations. 

ETH Options 

• Expiry: August 22, 2025 
• PCR: 0.46 
• Max Pain Level: $4,250 
• Notional Value: $950 million 
• Expired Contracts: 220,000 

ETH’s main-term IV stayed below 70%, while short-term IV rose above 80%, reflecting increased volatility expectations. 

BTC and ETH traded near historical highs this week, with a market theme of price correction. Investor sentiment remained relatively optimistic. Additionally, recent block trades occurred in both bullish and bearish positions, creating clear divergence in the options market. 

BTC Options Scenarios and Macro Impacts 

According to Deribit price trends, five BTC price ranges show option imbalances: 

• $105,000–$110,000: Call options $210M, put options $2.66B. Accordingly, put options hold a $2.45B advantage. 
• $110,100–$114,000: Call $420M, put $1.94B. In this range, puts are $1.5B more favorable. 
• $114,100–$116,000: Call $795M, put $1.15B. As a result, puts have a $360M advantage. 
• $116,100–$118,000: Call $1.3B, put $830M. Accordingly, calls hold a $460M advantage. 
• $118,100–$120,000: Call $1.7B, put $560M. In this case, calls are $1.1B more favorable. 

For bullish strategies to gain momentum, BTC must surpass $116,000 by August 29. However, the most critical level is $114,000, where bears are highly motivated to push prices down. 

Macro Factors and Market Pressure 

FED decisions and technology stock pressures will play a key role in BTC’s direction. Morgan Stanley warned that large tech companies may have limited capacity for share buybacks. Meanwhile, cautious equity markets increase investor concerns. Worries about the AI sector, combined with options market activity, could affect BTC’s short-term performance. 

BTC options expirations and macro pressures from the tech sector will determine whether the bull run has truly ended. At the same time, this situation may only represent a temporary pause. 

The options market continues to price future volatility strongly. Additionally, max pain levels and PCR ratios remain crucial indicators for short- and mid-term strategies. 

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