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Analysts say that the ongoing lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple, as well as the lack of an approved XRP futures ETF product, would seriously damage the chances of a spot XRP ETF approval.

Townsend Lansing, product director at CoinShares, said that an XRP ETF would not be possible unless or until the SEC is forced to or agrees that XRP is not a security.

In a July ruling in the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple, the judge found that XRP was not a security but could be sold to institutional buyers. However, the fight between the two is ongoing, and the next hearing is scheduled for April 23.

Scott Johnsson, partner at Van Buren Capital, also sees the likelihood as “very slim” and thinks it’s likely that the SEC will prevail again and win.

CoinShares research analyst Max Shannon (XRP ETF)

Others, such as CoinShares research analyst Max Shannon, have pointed out that it took more than a decade for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In early January, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed little confidence in an upcoming XRP ETF. In an interview with Tony Edward of Thinking Crypto on January 11, Seyffart said that the ETF was a “distant possibility” and would not happen this year given the ongoing lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple.

Seyffart also noted that, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are no currently approved XRP futures ETFs in the US.

In regard to this, Johnsson said that even if a major financial exchange like the CME listed XRP futures tomorrow, there would still need to be years of a process between XRP futures and spot markets before the SEC would approve a spot ETF, to make sure that surveillance sharing agreements are “sufficient to detect fraud.”

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