As geopolitical risks increase in global markets, investors are closely watching gold prices. Movements in gram gold, spot gold and oil prices have become more pronounced amid rising war risks and concerns about potential disruptions in global energy supply.

Middle East Crisis Deepens

The flow of news indicating an expansion of the conflict played a decisive role in financial markets. Developments on Wednesday suggested that tensions are beginning to stretch beyond regional boundaries.

A U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people. On the same day, NATO air defense systems reportedly intercepted and destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

And the geopolitical picture does not end there.

The son of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emerged as one of the leading figures to potentially succeed him. This development strengthens expectations that Tehran may not easily back down from the confrontation. The military campaign launched by the United States and Israel five days ago has already killed hundreds of people and triggered volatility across global markets.

As a result, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a prolonged geopolitical crisis rather than a short-lived escalation.

Volatility in Gold Prices May Continue

Market analysts believe two different dynamics are currently influencing gold prices. The first is the classic safe-haven demand that typically emerges during geopolitical crises. The second is the heightened volatility driven by uncertainty surrounding the conflict.

According to analysts, the ongoing crisis could support gold prices over the longer term. However, until there are clear signals that the conflict is de-escalating, price movements are expected to remain sharp and volatile.

Gold has already delivered a remarkable performance since the beginning of the year. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the precious metal has gained about 20% since the start of 2026, repeatedly hitting new record highs.

Oil Prices Also Surge

Energy markets also reacted quickly to geopolitical developments.

Concerns that oil and natural gas supplies in the Middle East could be disrupted pushed energy prices higher. Brent crude rose 3.26% to $83.99 per barrel on Thursday morning, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 3.70% to $77.42 per barrel.

The main scenario currently being discussed in energy markets is straightforward: if the conflict expands further, global oil supply chains could come under serious pressure.

A New Fed Chair Candidate

Alongside geopolitical developments, there is also notable news on the monetary policy front.

U.S. President Donald Trump officially nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. central bank.

Warsh is widely viewed by markets as a policymaker who may be more open to interest-rate cuts, a factor that has already sparked renewed debate about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

However, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18 meeting.

Investors are now focusing on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data. Weekly jobless claims due later in the day and the February employment report scheduled for Friday are seen as key indicators for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

How Much Is Gram Gold Now?

Sharp movements in global gold prices have also affected the Turkish market.

Gram gold, which started the week above 8,000 TL in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, quickly retreated to around 7,400 TL before partially recovering and stabilizing near 7,500 TL.

Earlier in the week, spot gram gold had tested 7,661 TL. On Tuesday, prices fell sharply and dropped to 7,066 TL. By the third trading day of the week, however, the market began to recover, pushing gram gold back above 7,300 TL.

In short, the main factor determining the direction of gold prices is no longer limited to inflation or interest rates.

Latest Gold and Oil Prices

Current market levels are as follows:

• Spot Gold: $5,177

• Gram Gold: 7,500 TL

• Brent Crude: $83.99

• WTI Crude: $77.42

As global markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, investors are debating whether gold prices could reach new highs if tensions continue to escalate.

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With geopolitical risks rising, S&P 500 losses remaining below 1% have surprised even the major bank.

Solomon noted that market reactions were calmer than expected:

“Looking at market responses… given the magnitude, I expected a stronger reaction.”

How Are Markets Reacting Now?

Energy prices are rising sharply. Expanding conflict has triggered supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have shifted from riskier assets to safe havens, strengthening the dollar while global stock indexes saw modest declines. Losses on Wall Street were relatively mild; the S&P 500 recovered early-day losses over two sessions, ending with a drop below 1%.

Solomon emphasized that this calm reflects how geopolitical events usually do not directly affect economic growth. However, cumulative effects may emerge later:

“We haven’t seen the cumulative effect yet. There’s still a lot unknown, so predictions are difficult.”

What Is the US Economy’s Condition?

Solomon stated that strong macroeconomic fundamentals make the US economy resilient. Looser monetary policy and regulatory relief have helped support growth.

According to the CEO, the US economy may “overheat slightly” this year, potentially pushing inflation above expectations. Private credit portfolios remain healthy, but during long credit cycles, slower growth could expose weaker lending standards:

“Competition in capital allocation is putting pressure on lending standards. If a slowdown or recession occurs, weak spots will become more evident.”

Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping White-Collar Work

Goldman Sachs is using AI to automate processes. While headcount remains largely stable, productivity is increasing and employees are being redirected to different roles. Short-term effects are beginning to be felt, but no long-term labor shortage is expected.

The CEO’s remarks are critical for understanding market risk perception and workforce planning in banking. Solomon described AI’s effects as “complex,” noting that short- and medium-term impacts are not yet fully clear.

Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Iran–US Tensions Shake Markets: Goldman Sachs Warns appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Although US stock markets opened with declines, losses were quickly recovered. Oil and gold prices initially rose but then fell back. The global MSCI index only dropped by 0.12%. Safe-haven assets showed mixed performance: the Japanese yen lost 0.64% against the dollar, while gold prices slightly decreased. Experts attribute the market calmness to expectations that the military intervention will not be prolonged. The Trump administration is keeping its military actions against Iran limited and deterrent. The prevailing belief is that the regional conflict will not escalate. 

Geopolitical Risks Are Controlled by Markets 

According to Dan Ives from Wedbush, the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat is positive for the market. At this stage, the possibility of the Iran-Israel conflict turning into a regional war is considered low. Therefore, markets are not panicking. 

Peter Boockvar, investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, states that market stability will be maintained if Iran ends its military nuclear program. Iran is not expected to take actions that would disrupt global oil supply. Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, says Trump does not want gas prices to remain above $4. It is also predicted that Trump will continue to pressure Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. 

Iran’s Countermeasures and the Strait of Hormuz Risk 

Despite Iran’s parliament deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns remain limited. Experts emphasize that the likelihood of Iran implementing this threat is low. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy says Iran’s countermeasures will be limited. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices would surge above $100, panic would ensue in markets, and stocks could fall more than 10%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely. 

In the past, Iran has made similar threats but did not close the strait. Papic notes that Iran is aware of the heavy retaliation that would come from the US. 

Three Possible Scenarios for Oil Prices According to Analysts 

• Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats outlines three scenarios shaping oil prices: 
• Oil flow continues uninterrupted, Brent crude falls to around $60. 
• Iran’s oil exports decline significantly, eliminating global oversupply, prices hover between $75-80. 
• Expanded conflict threatens Gulf oil exports, prices could rise to $140 as in 2022. 
• Whether price movements are temporary or permanent is critical. Recently, WTI oil prices rose by 10%, Brent crude by 18%. 

Long-Term Positive Outlook for US Stocks 

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, states that geopolitical developments will not change the long-term upward trend of US stock markets. Trump’s limited military intervention increases market confidence. Yardeni suggests the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites could create structural changes in the Middle East. Short-term uncertainty and volatility are possible, but market confidence could strengthen over time. 

The expectation that Iran will respond limitedly and that the conflict can be controlled keeps investors cautiously optimistic. 

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The post What Will Happen to Oil and Markets After Trump’s Attack on Iran?  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

While Beijing initially issued strong messages of support for Iran, its tone has since grown more cautious. Direct involvement in the conflict could harm China’s strategic global interests — but a controlled crisis could also create opportunities for Beijing.

China’s Silent Advantage: Who Gets Burned if Hormuz Closes?

A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect nearly 20% of global oil flows. Ironically, this scenario may pose more of an advantage than a threat for China. Compared to the U.S. and the European Union, Beijing is better positioned to handle an energy squeeze. In fact, it continues importing Iranian oil relabeled through Malaysia, bypassing sanctions.

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Energy analysts suggest that China could weather a spike in oil prices with minimal damage, while Washington and Brussels may face heavier economic pressure.

Geopolitical Chess: China Adjusts Its Calculations

Despite signing a 25-year strategic agreement with Iran in 2021 and participating in joint military drills, China refrains from openly opposing Israel.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Israel’s attacks as “unacceptable” during a recent call with his Israeli counterpart, but deliberately avoided stronger language like “condemnation.” This signals Beijing’s desire to avoid taking sides too openly.

What Lies Behind China’s Quiet Diplomacy?

In a recent statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that “stability in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters is in the shared interest of the international community.” Compared to previous assertive messaging, this represents a notable softening.

According to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, China is “staying diplomatically aligned with Iran without directly condemning Israel.”

Experts suggest Beijing is trying to preserve its strategic ties with Iran while maintaining an image as a peaceful global actor. How long this balancing act can last, however, remains uncertain.

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Following the announcement of the attacks, new predictions about Iran’s likelihood of retaliation rapidly surged on the platform. Polymarket data calculated only a 12% chance that the conflict would de-escalate by the following Friday (June 20, 2025). Even more striking were the bets on Iran declaring war on Israel within the same time frame, which had reached a notably high level of 55% by early Friday. 

And indeed, the events matched the predictions exactly. Israeli warplanes struck numerous military targets inside Iran, including nuclear facilities such as the Natanz nuclear site. Approximately 100 targets were hit using at least 330 munitions, and several high-ranking Iranian commanders were killed. However, methodological limitations (information access, volume, manipulation) should not be ignored. Founded in 2020, the platform creates “Yes/No” markets on many topics including political events, wars, and the economy. Users trade on these markets using USDC. 

Polymarket: A Barometer for Global Events 

• Conflict de-escalation chance 12%: The market views the likelihood of tension easing next week as low. 
• Iran’s war declaration risk down to 33%: Although the risk rose in the initial critical hours, the market now sees a large military move by Iran in the short term as unlikely. 
• Israel’s war declaration chance 25%: This indicates the market considers Israel’s imminent war declaration possible but with low probability. 

Prediction markets like Polymarket serve as an interesting barometer reflecting collective expectations about global events’ outcomes. Betting trends in the Israel-Iran tension not only mirror potential military actions but also reveal perceptions about the impact of such events on international relations and regional stability. 

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Oil Prices Surge: Inflation Concerns Mount 

News of the strikes quickly pushed crude oil prices up. WTI crude oil prices jumped over 13%, reaching $77 per barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, traded between $74 and $77. Investors adjusted their positions against the possibility of Iran disrupting regional oil supply, creating upward pressure on energy prices. JPMorgan analysts warn that if war risks persist, oil prices could climb to $120. This potential increase could reignite energy-driven inflation pressures in many countries, especially the U.S. 

Gold Breaks Records 

Investors flocked to gold in search of safety. Spot gold gained $24 per ounce in early Asian trading, climbing above $3,410. This brought it to its highest levels in recent years. Gold’s sharp rally clearly indicates investors are turning to safe havens in uncertain times. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to fluctuate based on global risk appetite and Fed policies. Furthermore, a weakening dollar acts as a positive catalyst for XAUUSD. In summary, with the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East, XAUUSD crossed the critical threshold of $2,000, entering a lasting upward trend. Since the conflict began, gold has been investors’ top choice for hedging against uncertainty and risk. Every new tension headline creates upward pressure on gold prices. 

Bitcoin Loses Value: Digital Gold Debate Reignites 

In contrast to gold’s sharp rise, Bitcoin’s price fell below $104,500. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called this “proof that Bitcoin is not digital gold.” According to Schiff, Bitcoin can’t gain value against gold and is trading more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. 

Peter Schiff: “In response to Israel’s airstrike on Iran, the market pushed gold up another $24 in early Asian trading, reaching over $3,410. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fell below $104,500. Bitcoin priced in gold is now more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. Bitcoin’s inability to rise against gold is strong evidence that the bubble has topped.” 

U.S. Economy: Inflation and Fed’s Rate Decision Under Scrutiny 

Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures for the U.S. economy. JPMorgan stated that increasing energy costs could push U.S. CPI data up to 5%. This implies the Fed might delay its planned interest rate cuts. Therefore, investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data to be released this week. 

Upcoming data and regional developments will determine market direction in the coming days. 

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