Over the past week, Bitcoin gained more than 4%, demonstrating resilience even as global uncertainty increased. Although the asset experienced a modest decline over the last 24 hours, it continues to trade above the levels seen before the latest escalation in the conflict.

Crypto Market Ends the Week in Positive Territory

Despite rising geopolitical risks, the broader cryptocurrency market posted gains throughout the week. Several major digital assets recorded notable increases during the same period.

Ether climbed roughly 5.5%, reaching around $2,090. Dogecoin advanced by about 5%, while Solana rose approximately 4% to trade near $88. BNB also recorded a weekly gain of around 4.5%, reaching roughly $655.

For Bitcoin, however, the key technical hurdle remains the resistance zone between $73,000 and $74,000. Over the past two weeks, the asset has tested this range multiple times but has yet to achieve a decisive breakout.

Markets Are Adapting to War-Related Headlines

In the early stages of the conflict, financial markets reacted sharply to each new development due to uncertainty surrounding potential risks. Over time, however, traders appear to have developed a clearer framework for pricing geopolitical events.

A pattern has gradually emerged: military escalation tends to push oil prices higher, leading to short-term volatility in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Yet after the initial reaction, markets have repeatedly stabilized.

This suggests that investors are increasingly treating war-related news as temporary shocks rather than long-term market disruptors.

Oil Supply Risks and the Strait of Hormuz

Another factor contributing to market uncertainty is the risk to global oil supply. The U.S. strike on Kharg Island has raised concerns about further disruptions in energy markets.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that oil infrastructure had been spared for the time being but warned that the situation could change if Iran attempted to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

Iran, in turn, warned that attacks on energy facilities could trigger retaliatory actions against U.S.-linked assets in the region. According to energy analysts, the current situation already represents one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern history.

Focus Shifts to the Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting

While geopolitical developments remain a key factor, financial markets are also closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for March 17–18.

Oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel, combined with ongoing global uncertainty, have revived concerns about stagflation. Market data currently indicates a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range.

However, the economic projections and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may prove more influential than the decision itself. Any indication that interest rate hikes could return to the policy agenda may put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain levels above $70,000 highlights the market’s resilience. Still, global developments continue to carry the potential to trigger new waves of volatility across the crypto sector.

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Weak economic data from the United States combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has pushed investors toward scarce assets. Bitcoin has been among the assets benefiting from this shift in market sentiment.

Weak Economic Data Boosts Demand for Bitcoin

Recent economic figures from the United States indicate a noticeable slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy expanded by only 0.7% during the final quarter of 2025, a figure that represents a significant downward revision from earlier estimates. The final report is expected to be released on April 9, but the weaker data has already fueled concerns about a potential recession in 2026.

These developments have influenced investor behavior in traditional markets. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.26%, reflecting higher return expectations from investors holding government bonds. In an environment marked by uncertainty and rising yields, some investors have turned to limited-supply assets such as Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, equity markets have shown relative resilience. The S&P 500 is currently trading roughly 5% below its all-time high, suggesting that risk appetite has not completely disappeared.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices Add Pressure

Another factor influencing global markets is the ongoing conflict in Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices. At one point, oil briefly spiked to $119.50 per barrel, creating additional volatility across financial markets.

The U.S. government’s temporary decision to allow the purchase of Russian oil that had been stranded at sea helped ease some of the immediate concerns. Following the announcement, oil prices pulled back slightly.

However, oil prices remain roughly $30 higher than levels seen before the conflict began. Elevated energy costs can contribute to inflationary pressure and reduce consumer spending, which may ultimately limit the amount of capital retail investors allocate to cryptocurrency markets.

Institutional Demand and ETF Flows

Institutional interest appears to be another driver behind Bitcoin’s recent strength. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded four consecutive days of net inflows totaling approximately $583 million.

In addition, estimates suggest that Strategy accumulated more than $900 million worth of Bitcoin through its yield-oriented STRC financial instrument. These developments indicate that institutional demand may be playing a role in supporting the current price momentum.

Has the Bear Market Actually Ended?

Despite the positive price action, analysts remain cautious about declaring the end of the broader correction that began after Bitcoin reached its $126,000 peak in October 2025.

Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 stands at around 84%, indicating that movements in technology stocks could still influence the cryptocurrency’s performance. Furthermore, Bitcoin has recently underperformed gold, suggesting that investors may not yet view it as a reliable hedge during periods of economic stress.

ETF flow patterns also highlight an important dynamic. Between late February and early March, about $2.14 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs, helping drive a 14% price rally. However, when those flows reversed, Bitcoin declined roughly 10% within a few days. This suggests ETF activity may be reacting to price movements rather than leading them.

While Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $64,000 support level and spent nearly five weeks consolidating, the market has yet to produce a clear breakout signal. As a result, whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above $70,000 could remain one of the key factors shaping short-term investor sentiment.

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In a statement, Aqua 1 said that its acquisition of $WLFI tokens aims to accelerate the development of a blockchain-based financial ecosystem built around stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets.

WLFI Token: Non-Transferable, but Offers Voting Rights

The $WLFI token is currently defined as a governance token. It cannot yet be traded on open markets, but holders are given the right to vote on proposed changes to the project’s underlying codebase. World Liberty confirmed it is “actively working” to make the token transferable in the near future.

Dave Lee, founding partner of Aqua 1, stated that WLFI and Aqua 1 will collaborate to identify and support high-potential blockchain projects. The foundation also revealed that its investment and compliance teams will support World Liberty’s expansion into South America, Europe, and Asia.

Limited Online Footprint for Aqua 1

Despite its high-profile investment, Aqua 1 has a minimal online presence. Its X (formerly Twitter) account has just three posts and about 1,120 followers. Domain data also shows that the foundation’s website was only registered on May 28.

New Fund to Launch in the Middle East

World Liberty has further plans to support the launch of a new Aqua 1 fund focused on accelerating digital economy transformation across the Middle East, leveraging both blockchain and artificial intelligence technologies.

While Aqua 1 did not respond to media inquiries, a World Liberty spokesperson also declined to offer additional comment.

WLFI: A Major Revenue Stream for the Trump Family

World Liberty was launched just two months before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and has since generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Trump family’s business interests. However, the platform has faced criticism from Democratic lawmakers and ethics watchdogs due to perceived conflicts of interest.

The Trump Organization maintains that the president’s assets and business operations are held in a trust managed by his children.

USD1 Stablecoin and Binance Partnership

World Liberty’s broader mission is to expand access to financial services via digital tokens, removing the need for intermediaries such as banks. As part of this vision, it developed the USD1 stablecoin, which gained momentum in May when an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm selected it for a $2 billion investment into major crypto exchange Binance.

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During the same period, continuing claims showed a notable increase. For the week ending June 14, claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021. Expectations were around 1.950 million.

Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.5% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2024. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% decline. This marks a sharp pullback compared to the 2.4% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak

Although initial jobless claims have decreased in the short term, broader data indicates an increase in layoffs. With the start of summer holidays and technical factors, non-teaching staff in some states are eligible to file for unemployment, contributing to the rise.

Economists also highlight that growing uncertainties and President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have made it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading many firms to take a cautious approach toward hiring.

Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, keeping the benchmark rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that they are waiting to see more clarity on external inflation pressures before considering any rate cuts. The likelihood of a rate cut this fall appears to be increasing.

Unemployment Rate May Rise

The rise in continuing claims suggests that the unemployment rate could climb from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June. A recent Conference Board survey showed the share of consumers who believe jobs are “plentiful” dropped to its lowest level in over four years.

Lou Crandall, Chief Economist at Wrightson ICAP, commented, “The rising volume of layoffs is likely to translate into an increase of at least one-tenth of a percent in the national jobless rate in the June employment report.”

U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher

Additionally,  U.S. stock markets in positive territory. The Dow Jones rose by 0.24%, the S&P 500 by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq by 0.45%. This uptick was supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and Powell’s dovish tone on potential interest rate cuts, which sparked short-term optimism in the markets.

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What’s the Situation with Spot ETFs?

The cryptocurrency markets were shaken by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel’s operations targeting Iran, particularly the strikes in Tehran, made global headlines. According to reports, the attacks targeted Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear facilities, prompting Iran to announce a “definite retaliation.” This has ushered in a new period of uncertainty, causing short-term volatility in both traditional markets and the crypto space.

Despite all this uncertainty, institutional interest in crypto continues unabated. The latest inflow-outflow data for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reveals just how strong this interest remains.

Risk Appetite Still Alive in Bitcoin ETFs!

• IBIT: +$239 million

• FBTC: +$25.2 million

• BITB: +$14.9 million

• HODL: +$6 million

• GBTC: +$9.1 million

• BTC: +$7.5 million

• Other funds: No movement

• Total Net Inflow: +$301.7 million

These figures show that institutional confidence in Bitcoin remains strong, and that investors are reinforcing their long-term positions despite price fluctuations. The $239 million inflow into the IBIT fund in particular suggests that “risk appetite is still alive” in the market.

Negative Outlook in Ethereum ETFs

• ETH: +$6.7 million

• FETH: -$8.8 million

• Other funds: No movement

• Total Net Inflow: -$2.1 million

On the Ethereum side, a more cautious picture emerges. Although a small net outflow of $2.1 million was recorded, some funds did see inflows. This suggests that while investors are more cautious about ETH in the short term, overall confidence still appears to be intact.

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According to industry leaders, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is positioning itself as a global hub for blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation, driven by key trends such as Shariah-compliant services, dirham-pegged stablecoins, and international talent migration.

At the recent Bitcoin MENA and Abu Dhabi Finance Week events held in the UAE, crypto professionals discussed the key trends shaping the future of the industry in the Middle East.

A “Springboard” for Crypto Adoption

Vranjes described the UAE as a launchpad for blockchain projects, highlighting its regulatory clarity compared to other jurisdictions.

Vranjes said:

“Our expectation for this market is that it’s going to move much faster.”

“This market’s going to leapfrog ahead in global rankings really quickly.”

Vranjes emphasized that the country has managed to attract the right talent, pointing out the influx of talent from London, India, and the Asia-Pacific region.

“When you get the right people, the right companies, and the right regulatory framework, this is the combination for success,” Vranjes added.

Shariah-Compliant Crypto Services

The demand for Shariah-compliant crypto services is another significant trend, particularly for decentralized finance (DeFi).

Islamic finance prohibits interest-based lending and focuses on profit-sharing agreements. Lenders and borrowers share investment risks, with both parties sharing their losses and profits.

Bendjemil stated that Shariah compliance is “one of the most important narratives for the Middle East right now,” not only for Bitcoin but also for DeFi.

The Core DAO executive noted that it opens up new opportunities for members of the Muslim community.

“Shariah compliance will unlock many possibilities for many people in the Islamic world and probably beyond, because projects will be ethically aligned.”

Bendjemil mentioned that this is a “recurring demand” in the Middle East, and many developers are already crafting solid strategies for complying with Shariah law.

In September, Bybit introduced a Shariah-compliant crypto account catering to investors seeking alignment with Islamic law.

Dirham Stablecoins and Making Bitcoin Legal Tender

Zurawinski highlighted the potential impact of dirham-pegged stablecoins, noting that they could strengthen the UAE’s local payment infrastructure.

On October 18, a stablecoin issuer received the first approval from the UAE Central Bank for a stablecoin pegged to the UAE dirham.

Zurawinski said, “This shows the emphasis on the local payment method, which is fundamentally the dirham, unlike the US dollar or Bitcoin being legal tender.”

Zurawinski noted that it might take some time for the country to adopt Bitcoin as a recognized means of payment. However, he added that this does not overlook the fact that the UAE is “setting an example of how innovation should look.”

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Gold prices jumped 1.4% to $2,665 per ounce, virtually matching its all-time high while crude oil climbed by as much as 7% and hit $72 per barrel. By contrast, Bitcoin dropped more than 3%, from $64,000 to a low of $60,315 then partially recovered to $61,800.

Conventional safe-haven assets are soaring as things between Israel and Iran turn dire. Targeting Israel with an airstrike on October 1, the market changed drastically as speculators sought US dollars, bonds, and gold. With around $521 million in liquidations noted, Bitcoin suffered considerable losses even if it was occasionally hailed as a digital safe-haven.

This behavior is not unprecedented. Bitcoin also dropped over 8% in April 2024 after another geopolitical event involving Iran and Israel. Jeroen Blokland of the Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund believes investors may be selling Bitcoin to buy gold. In contrast, analysts like Jesse Colombo argue that crypto’s volatility during crises confirms it is not a reliable safe-haven asset, likening its behavior to high-risk tech stocks.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed hope in Bitcoin’s potential capabilities as an inflation hedge even if he pointed out that the asset is still under development. Until it moves totally to this usage, Fink also noted that Bitcoin’s price would continue to fluctuate in response to economic conditions and liquidity cycles.

Precious metals remain the principal safe-haven asset; geopolitical issues are still very real and the debate on Bitcoin’s position during natural disasters is still under flux.

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