McGlone suggests that Bitcoin, which has historically been one of the best-performing assets, could experience a downward correction if a market bubble bursts. He attributes this to the potential for risk-off sentiment to prevail in such a scenario.

McGlone’s observations include:

The Fed funds rate being around 2% above the Consumer Price Index (CPI), compared to the 20-year average of negative 1%, is considered restrictive.

However, he notes that rising fiscal deficits seem unstoppable, which supports his view that gold could continue its upward trend against most commodities and possibly equities in the second quarter of the year.

Bitcoin risks, which topped McGlone’s annual performance scorecard at the end of the first half, and the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ total return index, which was at the bottom, could both experience some mean reversion in the second half.

If commodities follow a normal path towards low pricing and risk assets rise slightly, there could be a trend towards deflation worthy of inflation reaching 2022 highs.

As of this writing, Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is on track to close the week with a loss of approximately 3.49%.

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McGlone suggests that Bitcoin might also experience a downturn by the year’s end, viewing $30,000 as the critical resistance level for Bitcoin. Analysts believe that, in the event of a possible pullback, BTC could drop back to $10,000.

Cryptos Might Be Leaning Into Recession – The biggest risk for #cryptos may be the pressure of an ebbing tide should the #stockmarket have a typical drawdown for a #recession.@BBGintelligence pic.twitter.com/Fxyzf3GEN5

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 2, 2023

According to the Bloomberg analyst, the biggest threat to the crypto market could be the pressure caused by a possible decline in the stock market. McGlone believes that the low volume trades seen in the third quarter indicate either an upward explosion or stagnation. He suggests the next step may be downwards, expecting a decrease in risk appetite in 2023.

According to the analyst, given signals of weakness in US and European economies and deflationary effects of China’s real estate crisis, it is no surprise monetary tightening by central banks.

According to McGlone, the risk of recession for developed countries is still on the table. He believes that the US could technically enter a recession in the last quarter of the year. He predicts that this situation could negatively impact stock markets and the sales could reflect on the crypto market. McGlone thinks that Bitcoin could lose 60% of its current value, falling back to around $10,000.

According to the above analysis, the course of the cryptocurrency market could largely depend on developments in the stock market. As McGlone points out, a decrease in risk appetite is expected in the upcoming period, which may increase the possibility of losses in crypto assets. Particularly, signals in US and European economies suggests the approach of economic difficulties. In this scenario, there might be a possibility of Bitcoin going into a decline, falling back to levels around $10,000.

The Latest Situation in Bitcoin

Bitcoin began the week with a drop, currently starting to move laterally in the range of $27,500 – $28,000, after finding support at levels of $27,200 yesterday. For a more detailed Bitcoin analysis, click here.

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