Bitcoin’s Technical Breakdown

According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin dropped below its 365-day moving average at $101,564. Moreno stated on X, “This was the final confirmation of the 2022 bear market,” adding that prices need to rebound above this level quickly. Coinbase data showed BTC briefly hitting a low of $98,900 before slightly recovering to around $101,800.

The 365-day moving average tracks the average price of Bitcoin over the past year and serves as a key technical indicator. Market observers consider this metric critical for gauging investor sentiment. When BTC drops below this average, it is often seen as a strong bearish signal. Analyst Decode noted that Bitcoin also briefly fell below this level in April.

Correction or Bear Market?

Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima commented that Tuesday’s drop technically indicates a bear market. BTC has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October. However, Adziima emphasized that this is the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle—a routine market cleanup rather than the start of a long bearish period. Historical data shows that in bull markets, a 20% drop often leads to a 40% recovery within 60 days.

Tom Cohen, Head of Investment and Trading at Algoz Technology, added, “For Bitcoin to enter a true bear market, it would have had to breach the $100,000 level earlier.” Cohen also highlighted that macroeconomic developments, political moves by former President Trump, and the upcoming U.S. interest rate decision in December will heavily influence the market.

Bull Market Perspective

Although falling below the 365-day moving average caused short-term panic, experts view it as a normal correction within a bull cycle. Historical trends suggest that BTC can recover quickly from such dips. Market watchers note that if support holds, a strong year-end rally, commonly called a “Santa Claus rally,” is still possible.

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il Capo following this upsurge, he took to Twitter to share his thoughts, stating that the $65.500 resistance level has been decisively broken and the next target is $67.000. Despite his prior bearish stance, il Capo believes the bull run is not over for Bitcoin in this cycle.

Some analysts, however, remain cautious, suggesting that this sudden rally could be a short-lived move and the price may retrace to $65,000 again.

Bitcoin’s daily and weekly moving averages are currently trending upwards, indicating increasing buying pressure. Indicators are also flashing bullish signals. Notably, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are both in buying territory.

Bitcoin price has been on a roller coaster ride lately. The recent surge suggests that buyers are re-entering the market. However,

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The evaluation made by Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, the founders of the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, from the Negentropic account they jointly use on X, shows that Bitcoin could also exceed the $80,000 level in a short time.

Stating that Bitcoin is about to break an upward flag formation, the analysts said the following:

“Bitcoin is currently about to break the upward flag trend with its 50-day simple moving average… When the $65-66,000 level is broken, the next stop will be $73.5,000. If $76.5,000 is also exceeded, $85.2,000 may come before the summer.”

A day earlier, the two analysts had also written that the downward movements continued, but that this situation had also “cooled down” due to the liquidation of long positions that came over the weekend.

Glassnode founders, in an analysis in February, also stated that they expected Bitcoin to experience a sharp rise, and they were right in their predictions. Bitcoin, which was at the level of $40,000 in early February, reached $73,000 by mid-March.

The two analysts had also stated that they expect the largest cryptocurrency to reach $120,000 in July.

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