Recovery After a Volatile Week

The past week was marked by sharp declines and heavy selling pressure in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s sudden drops triggered two massive liquidation events, leaving many investors concerned about exhaustion in the rally.

However, Monday’s bounce restored some optimism. Bitcoin reached a 24-hour high of $112,293 during early trading before stabilizing near $111,835 at the time of writing.

XWIN Research: “The Bull Market Is Not Over”

Japan-based investment firm XWIN Research suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact despite recent volatility. In its latest analysis, the firm highlighted on-chain data as evidence that the market still shows strength beneath the surface.

Central to this outlook is Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which currently stands at 2. According to XWIN, this level indicates that the market is neither in panic nor in euphoric territory. Historically, Bitcoin has often entered periods of strong expansion after consolidating around these levels.

The firm also noted that profit-taking by long-term holders has declined, effectively reducing available supply. This dynamic could set the stage for renewed demand and higher prices, supporting the idea that the cycle has not yet reached its final phase.

Billions in Liquidations Rock the Market

The recent recovery followed two waves of significant liquidations. On September 22, Bitcoin’s 3% drop below $112,000 wiped out nearly $3 billion in long positions across the crypto market.

Just a few days later, on September 26, another $1 billion in long positions was liquidated as Bitcoin briefly dipped to $109,000.

Data shows that Bitcoin accounted for the majority of liquidations on September 22, totaling $726 million, while Ethereum long positions led the losses on September 26 with $413 million liquidated.

Market Sentiment Turns Neutral

Alongside Bitcoin’s rebound, investor sentiment has improved. The widely followed Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed back to “Neutral” territory on Monday, hitting a score of 50 out of 100.

This marks a significant recovery from Friday, when the index dropped to 28 — its lowest reading since mid-April, when Bitcoin traded near $80,000. The steady improvement over the past three days suggests that confidence is slowly returning to the market.

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The post Bitcoin Surges Above $112,000 – Is the Bull Market Still Alive? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

What’s Happening with Toncoin?

According to data from Santiment, Toncoin’s 7-day and 30-day MVRV ratios stand at -5.71% and -9.10%, respectively. The MVRV metric compares an asset’s current market price to the average price of its circulating tokens. A negative MVRV ratio indicates that the asset is undervalued, meaning it is trading below the average acquisition cost of the tokens in circulation.

Historically, a negative MVRV ratio has been seen as a buying opportunity, allowing market participants to purchase assets at a lower price with the expectation of selling them later at a higher value. Additionally, TON’s futures market has shown resilience despite recent challenges.

The rising open interest in futures contracts and the positive funding rates across exchanges reflect a steady confidence among investors. Since Durov’s arrest, TON’s futures open interest has surged by 46%, reaching $345 million. Open interest measures the number of ongoing contracts, and an increase suggests growing participation from investors opening new positions.

However, spot investors in TON have become increasingly bearish since Durov’s arrest. The token’s technical indicators highlight an increase in selling pressure, overshadowing buying activity. For instance, TON’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows the positive directional indicator (+DI) below the negative directional indicator (-DI), pointing to a strong downtrend and intensified selling pressure.

Moreover, the token’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) emphasizes the downward momentum. Since Durov’s detention, TON’s RSI has fallen from a neutral 50 to 36.98, approaching the oversold territory, which indicates increased selling activity. If this selling pressure persists, TON’s value could drop further to $4.73. On the other hand, a bullish reversal might push the price up to $5.47.

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ADA Coin price made a quick comeback. However, what we are used to here is the fact that investors quickly convert these small gains to cash out of greed. ADA Coin has been stuck in a tight range for a long time for this reason. On the other hand, MVRV data gives another sell signal. The Market Value/Realized Value (MVRV) ratio reflects investor profitability.

The 30-day MVRV is at 11% for ADA Coin, and this shows that many investors are in an attractive position to sell profits at current levels. Therefore, investors may start a new process where they cash out their gains and increase selling pressure while doing so.

According to historical data, when the MVRV ratio is between 10% and 20% for ADA Coin, a price correction is usually seen. These levels, known as the danger zone, are accepted as a bearish signal in the market. On the other hand, this situation is similar to MVRV giving historical bottom signals in negative values, and it does not necessarily require the price to move in the direction it clearly shows.

ADA Coin Comment

Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA made a sale of $52.6 million. These recent sales may be another leading signal of the pressure we mentioned in the first part. On the other hand, with BTC prices closing above $60,200, MVRV can be expected to rise to 20% for higher levels.

As of the time of writing the article, the main resistance point that has not yet been broken is at $0.44. If the price wants to stay above $0.42, it should overcome the resistance and move towards higher levels. In a bearish scenario, closing prices below $0.40 may mean the end of the recent rally.

0.45 and 0.46 dollar targets are possible with a jump from 0.42 dollars. BTC is hovering above $60,000 as of the time of writing.

The post Can Cardano (ADA) Price Break Out or Will It Face Selling Pressure? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

MVRV is the abbreviation of Market Value/Realized Value ratio. This is an indicator that shows whether a cryptocurrency is currently overvalued or undervalued. According to Santiment, the recent declines have brought many altcoins to a “cheap” position.

The Santiment side, which suggests that all the declines and the following fear atmosphere could be the right signals to buy, implied that such opportunities will not arise much in a bull market:

“According to our model, the medium-term gains and losses of average wallets indicate heavy losses occurring in most altcoin-based wallets. When calculating the collective returns of wallets in 1, 3 and 6 month cycles relative to the market value of its realized value (MVRV), over 85% of the assets we follow are in a historic opportunity zone. Buying may be justified as a growing fear seeps from the crowd after all these market value declines.”

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