• Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.

• If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.

• A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.

EU’s Strategic Approach

Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.

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Possible Scenarios

1. If a framework agreement is reached

   • A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.

   • A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.

2. If talks fail

   • The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.

   • The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.

In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.

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Trump remarked Tuesday that the 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods were “very high” and would “come down substantially.” “They won’t go to zero, but they’ll be much lower,” he added.

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The comments calmed global markets that had been rattled by Trump’s hardline trade stance, and China responded by reaffirming its openness to dialogue. “There are no winners in trade wars,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun. “The door for talks is wide open.”

However, on Thursday, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that no trade talks had taken place yet and labeled reports of ongoing negotiations as “groundless and without factual basis.”

Other Key Developments:

• President Xi Jinping warned that trade wars “harm the global economic order.”
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated in a closed-door meeting that a de-escalation was likely.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “The U.S. is doing very well on a potential deal with China.”
• Japan is reportedly preparing to send a second envoy to Washington as part of tariff discussions.

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