Seasonal Pattern or Market Myth?

There is a recurring narrative that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market sometimes experience weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year. The reasoning behind this theory suggests that Asia-based investors may reduce exposure before the holiday to increase cash holdings, creating short-term selling pressure. In certain past cycles, BTC did post pullbacks in the days leading up to the holiday period.

However, this pattern has not been consistent. In several instances, Bitcoin prices moved higher shortly after the celebrations concluded. Moreover, today’s crypto market structure is far more globally diversified than in earlier years. With capital flows distributed across multiple regions, it is increasingly unlikely that a single regional holiday alone can dictate overall price direction.

At the same time, retail investor behavior presents a contrasting dynamic. Recent data indicates that February balances for BTC and ETH are equal to or higher than December levels, suggesting that many individual investors are continuing to accumulate during dips rather than exiting positions. If this accumulation trend persists, it could help absorb any temporary seasonal selling pressure.

What the Technical Picture Reveals for Bitcoin

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day simple moving average near $83,900, confirming that the short-term trend is still tilted to the downside. Since peaking in the mid-$90,000 range in January, price action has formed a sequence of lower highs, reinforcing the technically weak structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 35, having rebounded from deeply oversold levels near 20 earlier this month. While this recovery signals that selling momentum has cooled, it does not yet confirm a definitive trend reversal.

Immediate support sits near $65,000, with a stronger demand zone between $60,000 and $62,000. On the upside, resistance is seen around $72,000, followed by a heavier supply area between $76,000 and $80,000. A break below $65,000 could open the door to further downside toward $60,000, whereas a sustained move above $72,000 would indicate that bullish momentum is regaining traction—regardless of seasonal narratives.

This content is not investment advice.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Will The Chinese New Year Trigger a Sell-Off in Bitcoin? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

McGlone’s projections extend beyond digital assets, offering a broader perspective on how macroeconomic pressures could reshape multiple asset classes over the coming years.

Warning Signs for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory

According to McGlone, Bitcoin could face substantial downside risk in 2026. Under his base-case scenario, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may retreat to the $50,000 level. In a more adverse global environment, however, he suggests that losses could deepen significantly, with prices potentially revisiting the $10,000 range—implying a drawdown of up to 90% from higher levels.

This bearish outlook is not driven solely by macroeconomic headwinds. McGlone emphasizes that Bitcoin’s internal competitive landscape has changed dramatically. While Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency when it launched in 2009, it now competes with millions of digital assets, which may dilute its long-term value proposition.

Bitcoin Versus Gold: A Structural Comparison

A key element of McGlone’s analysis involves comparing Bitcoin to gold as a store of value. He points out that gold faces only a limited number of direct competitors—primarily silver, platinum, and palladium. This relatively narrow competitive field has helped gold maintain its status as a stable reserve asset over time.

Bitcoin, by contrast, operates in a rapidly expanding digital ecosystem, where constant innovation and token proliferation may apply sustained pressure on its dominance in the years ahead.

A Brighter Outlook for Gold

While his Bitcoin outlook remains cautious, McGlone is notably more optimistic about gold. He projects that gold prices could rise by approximately 10% by 2026, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce.

He also suggests that gold’s relative strength may serve as an early indicator of stress in risk assets. Historically, periods of strong gold performance have coincided with corrections in equity markets.

A Challenging Year Across Asset Classes

Looking beyond Bitcoin and gold, McGlone believes 2026 could be a difficult year for most asset classes. He warns of potential corrections in U.S. equities and expects continued pressure on commodities such as oil, copper, silver, and other risk-sensitive assets.

Taken together, these projections highlight the importance of disciplined risk management as markets approach a potentially volatile phase.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post A Striking Bitcoin Scenario for 2026 From a Renowned Analyst appeared first on Coin Engineer.