What is the Jackson Hole Meeting?

The Jackson Hole meeting is a highly anticipated event in the global financial world, where central bankers, leading economists, and policymakers come together. Key topics such as monetary policy, global economic balance, and market expectations are discussed during the conference.

In particular, signals regarding interest rate decisions and liquidity policies make the meeting highly significant for investors. That’s why Jackson Hole is considered a guide not only for the U.S. but also for global markets.

Powell’s Speech This Year

Powell’s speech is scheduled for Friday, August 22, around at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Investors are especially focused on whether Powell will give a clear signal about an upcoming rate cut ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting.

This year’s speech carries extra weight for Powell personally, as his term ends next year—meaning this could be one of his last major appearances at Jackson Hole. Markets are eager to see how he will balance signs of a weakening labor market with persistent inflation pressures.

Weakness in the Labor Market

Recent data show signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Non-farm payrolls came in well below expectations, and previous months’ numbers were revised downward. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while weekly jobless claims climbed to their highest level since 2021.

This situation raises concerns regarding the Fed’s “full employment” mandate. As a result, markets are closely watching whether Powell will highlight this weakness and signal a stronger possibility of a rate cut.

Inflation Risks Still Persist

On the other hand, the inflation picture remains challenging. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reached a three-year high, and while CPI came in line with expectations, core inflation continues to trend upward. This makes Powell’s job more complicated, as it limits the Fed’s room to cut rates aggressively.

Possible Scenarios

Analysts point out three potential scenarios for Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks:

1. Signal a rate cut: He may cite labor market weakness as justification, boosting expectations for a September cut.

2. Stress inflation risks: Powell could dampen market expectations by emphasizing, “We are not yet aligned with our inflation target.”

3. Stay data-dependent: He may refrain from strong guidance, instead highlighting that upcoming labor and inflation data will shape the Fed’s decisions.

Rate Cut Expectations

Market expectations have already become clear. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, 83.1% of investors expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting. The probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 16.9%, while a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is currently priced at 0%.

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An Interesting Turn from Selling to Buying

Onchain data shows Hayes sold 2,373 Ether, worth about $8.32 million, when the token was trading near $3,507. This sale locked in profits before Ethereum’s recent rally.

However, last Saturday, Hayes moved out $10.5 million in USDC across multiple transactions to buy back ETH at prices above $4,150 — significantly higher than his previous exit point.

He tweeted, “Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me @fundstrat?” tagging Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat. Hayes added, “I pinky swear, I’ll never take profit again.”

Had to buy it all back, do you forgive me @fundstrat ?

I pinky swear, I'll never take profit again.

pic.twitter.com/jRWfaCEPE6

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 9, 2025

Hayes Issues Crypto Market Warning

As CIO of Maelstrom Fund, Hayes warned last week that mounting macroeconomic pressures could pull Bitcoin back toward $100,000.

Citing renewed tariff fears following weak July Non-Farm Payrolls showing only 73,000 new US jobs, Hayes noted that sluggish credit growth in major economies could weigh on nominal GDP and push Bitcoin and Ethereum lower toward $100,000 and $3,000, respectively.

In anticipation, Hayes sold over $13 million worth of crypto, including $8.32 million in ETH, $4.62 million in Ethena, and $414,700 in Pepe tokens.

Institutions Accumulate $4.17 Billion in ETH

Since July 10, unknown whales and institutions have accumulated approximately 1.035 million ETH — valued around $4.17 billion — through exchanges and institutional trading platforms, according to data gathered by EmberCN.

This buying surge coincided with Ethereum’s strong price rally, climbing from $2,600 to $4,000 within the month — a 45% increase.

EmberCN noted that most of the ETH held by these addresses likely belongs to institutions or US public companies building ETH reserves. This excludes publicly known entities like SBET. The average acquisition price for these holdings is estimated at roughly $3,546.

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US Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Below Expectations at 73K

The US Non-Farm Payrolls data came in at 73,000. This figure is well below the market expectation of 106,000. Last month’s figure was recorded at 147,000. Signs of a slowdown in the labor market have become more evident with this data.

Unemployment Rate Remained Stable

The US Unemployment Rate was announced at 4.2%, in line with expectations. Having been at 4.1% in the previous month, the unemployment rate showed a slight increase to 4.2% this month. This rate may align with the Federal Reserve’s expectation of a cooling labor market.

How Will Markets React?

The weaker-than-expected employment data could increase pressure on the Fed’s interest rate policy. Risk assets such as Bitcoin, altcoins, and the general crypto market may be affected by such economic indicators. If the Fed adopts a more cautious stance and moves toward potential rate cuts, long-biased movements could be seen in the markets.

This content is not intended as investment advice. Markets carry high risks, and it is important to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, Unemployment Rate Rises

According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, significantly surpassing market expectations of 137,000. The previous month’s figure was 151,000.

This strong job growth indicates that the labor market is still performing well. However, the slight rise in the unemployment rate has drawn attention. The unemployment rate reached 4.2%, exceeding market expectations of 4.1%.

Market Impact of the Data

These figures are crucial for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decisions. The stronger-than-expected job data could signal that the Fed may take a more cautious approach in its rate-cutting process. However, the rise in unemployment suggests that certain risks in the labor market persist.

Stock and currency markets may experience volatility following the data release. Strong job growth could lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, while the increase in unemployment might influence investor sentiment.

The U.S. labor market remains resilient. However, the rise in unemployment and the Fed’s upcoming actions in its fight against inflation will be key factors shaping market sentiment in the coming period. Investors should closely monitor statements from Fed officials next week and upcoming inflation data.

This content is not investment advice. Financial markets carry high risks, and it is important to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Non-Farm Payrolls Data: What Was the Result?

The US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls data for March was released at 77K, significantly below the market expectation of 141K. This decline raises concerns about economic activity. The weak data may signal a potential slowdown in the labor market.

The much lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls result could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions in the coming periods. Especially considering the potential for interest rate hikes to combat inflation, weak employment data could increase the pressure on economic growth.

This outcome may indicate a loosening in the labor market, with employers becoming more cautious about creating jobs. This could point to a potential accelerating slowdown in the US economy.

How Could This Data Affect the Crypto Markets?

The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls data falling short of expectations could impact the crypto markets in several ways. Weak employment data suggests a slowing US economy, and investors may shift towards safer assets, reducing demand for cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, weak data could prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach to interest rate hikes. This could provide liquidity to the markets, increasing interest in cryptocurrencies. Additionally, a decline in the value of the USD may drive investors towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Non-Farm Payrolls Fell Short of Expectations

The Non-Farm Payrolls data in the US was reported at 143K, significantly below the economists’ forecast of 169K. This may indicate a slowdown in the labor market.

Unemployment Rate Declined

The US Unemployment Rate came in at 4.0%, compared to the expected 4.1%. The lower-than-expected unemployment rate suggests a resilient labor market.

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Average Hourly Earnings Increased

Workers’ Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% expectation. This increase in wages could intensify inflationary pressures and impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

How Will Markets React?

• Bitcoin and crypto markets may experience volatility following the employment data.
• Lower job growth signals economic cooling, while rising wages bring inflation risks into focus.
• These figures are crucial for the FED’s rate decision in the coming months.

Market fluctuations will be closely monitored in the days ahead.

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Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase and indicating a stronger-than-anticipated rise in workers’ income. This follows a previous rise of 0.3%, signaling a recovery trend that aligns with economists’ expectations.

Non-Farm Payrolls reported an addition of just 12,000 new jobs in October, falling significantly short of the projected 223,000. This shortfall may signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Experts suggest that these numbers could increase the likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a pause in the labor market’s recovery and highlighting potential weaknesses in the U.S. economy. Analysts note that this steadiness in the unemployment rate, coupled with moderate wage growth, could increase pressure on the Fed to consider easing its monetary policy. These figures present a challenging economic picture, one that needs careful balance between inflation pressures and labor demand.

Given this data, the U.S. is expected to take a cautious approach in its future monetary policy decisions. The ongoing fluctuations in the dollar market may drive increased interest in safe-haven assets such as gold, as investors assess these developments.

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