It is still early to see concrete impacts of AI on the labor market, but the report will be closely monitored for weak job growth or unexpected job losses.

Market-Moving Events on Friday

Besides today’s payroll data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Daly, Paulson, Collins, and Hammack will be key for markets. Rising bond yields are pressuring Fed rate cut expectations, while risk assets are recovering from movements in oil prices. Bitcoin and global equities have stabilized after the early-week sell-off triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions.

Bonds remain cautious; rising yields are bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Strong economic data from the US and ongoing energy-driven price shocks are keeping investors on edge.

Bitcoin and Equities

Bitcoin traded above $70,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 10% since the start of the week. Prices had dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend due to US-Israel-Iran tensions, then briefly climbed to $74,000 on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures also rebounded; contracts that fell to 6,718 on Tuesday have climbed to about 6,840 at the time of writing.

Oil and Geopolitical Risks

Reports that Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered initial risk-off moves. The US quickly responded, providing escort for tankers and political risk coverage, bringing short-term stability to markets. Brent crude is trading around $85.47.

The bond market remains cautious. According to CME Fed Funds futures, investors now see less than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates twice by 25 basis points this year, down from around 80% before the conflict. Attention is now on today’s job data and wage growth figures.

Labor Data and Fed Expectations

Last month, US labor data exceeded expectations: 130,000 new jobs were created in January, unemployment dropped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Expectations for February are more moderate, suggesting a return to the “low hiring, low firing” pattern seen over the past year.

Jerome Powell’s April meeting will be particularly critical for Fed policy. Higher-than-expected employment or wage growth could weaken rate cut expectations and trigger new market volatility.

Market Notes and Micro Data

• BTC: $70,642 (approx. 10% gain since start of week)
• S&P 500 Futures: 6,840
• Bond yields: rising, Fed cut expectations decreasing
• Oil: brief spike after Hormuz Strait news, now stable

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Gold has once again settled above the psychological $5,000 threshold. Moves in silver were even more aggressive. Spot silver surged 4.6% to $81.54. After sliding toward the $60 zone last week, this rebound suggests that short-term panic selling has largely been absorbed. Platinum did not share the same momentum, falling 2.3% to around $2,068.

The market is still searching for a clear narrative — and frankly, it’s struggling to find one.

Eyes on US Data: Dollar Under Pressure

Investors are focusing on US nonfarm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. Both releases could provide fresh clues about the Fed’s interest-rate path. The delay of January’s labor report until Wednesday limited short-term volatility, giving gold some breathing room.

The US dollar has slipped to its lowest levels since February 4, making dollar-priced metals more attractive to global investors. Analysts highlight a strong intraday correlation between gold, silver, and the dollar.

KCM Chief Analyst Tim Waterer summarizes the current setup:

“Opportunistic buying is pushing gold back above the psychological $5,000 level.”

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened after weekend elections, adding further pressure to the dollar index.

Fed Uncertainty at the Center of Pricing

Last week saw sharp whipsaw moves across precious metals markets. The catalyst was a brief dollar rebound after President Donald Trump floated Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair candidate, triggering profit-taking in gold and silver.

The narrative quickly shifted. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not fully rule out potential legal scrutiny related to Warsh, raising institutional confidence concerns. Growing fears over Fed independence pushed the dollar lower again. As the dollar weakened, gold responded naturally to the upside.

Markets are now pricing at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially arriving in June. Gold, which offers no yield, historically performs better in low-rate environments.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that one or two additional rate cuts may be needed to offset labor-market weakness.

According to Waterer, softer employment data could further support gold — though unless there’s a significant deterioration, the Fed is unlikely to act decisively before mid-year.

Turkey Market: Gram Gold Near 7,500 TRY

Global gains spilled into Turkey as well. In the Grand Bazaar, gram gold traded around 7,518 TRY, while quarter gold climbed toward 12,262 TRY. Physical buying interest remains steady, with prices reflecting both on-shore FX moves and international gold performance.

For local investors, the picture is clear: global uncertainty continues to amplify domestic price sensitivity.

China Factor: Quiet but Persistent

One of the strongest medium-to-long-term supports for gold comes from China.

In January, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 74.19 million ounces. The move is widely interpreted as strategic diversification away from dollar-based reserves. China already leads global gold consumption, and continued central-bank demand provides a solid floor for prices.

Silver Approaches Key Resistance

Silver’s technical structure looks more aggressive. After nearly a 10% jump on Friday, momentum has carried into the new week — but analysts urge caution.

Kelvin Wong identifies $92.24 as a critical resistance level. Until that zone is cleared, medium-term bullish scenarios remain tentative. Notably, silver hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29. Volatility has increased sharply since then.

2026 Performance Remains Positive

Despite recent turbulence, gold is up roughly 15% year-to-date, while silver holds about a 5% gain. The sharp correction from early-February highs flushed out some speculative positions, leaving a more balanced — yet still fragile — market structure.

In short: gold is holding above $5,000, silver has staged a powerful rebound. Direction, however, remains uncertain. Fed ambiguity, dollar movements, and central-bank demand are all colliding in the same pricing mix. This week’s US data will be decisive for short-term momentum.

The market isn’t comfortable yet — but it’s not fully defensive either.

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Wednesday, July 30 – The Most Important Day of the Week 

2:00 PM ET – FED Interest Rate Decision 
The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for July. The expectation is that rates will remain unchanged. However, the guidance and economic assessments in the statement will be highly significant. 

2:30 PM ET – FED Chair Powell’s Press Conference 
Powell’s comments could be decisive for market pricing. Messages such as “higher rates for longer” or “economic softening” may cause sharp moves in the crypto market. 

The White House will also release its cryptocurrency policy report. 

Other Key Data Releases 

Tuesday, July 29 
10:00 AM ET – U.S. Consumer Confidence (July)
Expectation: 96.0 | Previous: 93.0
An increase in consumer confidence could signal economic vitality and impact risk assets. 

Wednesday, July 30
8:15 AM ET – ADP Private Sector Employment (July)
Expectation: 80K | Previous: -33,000
Labor market recovery may influence FED policies. 

8:30 AM ET – U.S. GDP (Q2) 
Expectation: 2.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Positive growth data may support risk assets, including crypto. 

Thursday, July 31 
8:30 AM ET – Core PCE (June)
Annual Expectation: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
PCE is a key inflation gauge for the FED and will influence monetary policy outlook. 

• Friday, August 1 
  8:30 AM ET – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (July)
  Expectation: 109,000 | Previous: 147,000 
• 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (July)
  Expectation: 4.2% | Previous: 4.1% 
• 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (July)
  Expectation: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
  Weakening labor market data could alter expectations for future FED rate moves. 
• Trump administration’s country-specific tariffs will officially take effect on August 1. 

With growth, inflation, and employment data alongside the FED decision, this week could set the direction for crypto markets. High volatility is especially expected on Wednesday. Investors should carefully adjust their positions based on announcements.

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Following the release of these economic figures, there was notable movement in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp rise, jumping from $89,000 to $90,200. This sudden surge is linked to investors reassessing the economic data and viewing Bitcoin as a potential store of value. The release of these figures has led to an increase in risk appetite in the markets, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

This surge in Bitcoin is indicative of the ongoing “safe haven” demand among investors and showcases how the crypto market reacts to traditional financial data. However, the break of the $90,200 level could trigger further bullish momentum, but there may also be selling pressure at these levels.

With volatility still prevailing in the markets, investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s new support and resistance levels. The question remains whether Bitcoin will hold above these levels or experience further fluctuations in the coming days.

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