Capitulation as a Setup for Opportunity

Nick Ruck, Research Director at LVRG, believes the market’s recent washout offers a strategic opportunity. According to Ruck, the sustained downside pressure has effectively removed excessive leverage and flushed out weaker, unsustainable projects. This cleansing effect, he notes, can create a more favorable environment for investors looking to build long-term exposure.

Throughout November, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 16.9%, trading around the 91,500-dollar level. Data from CoinGlass shows that this decline is approaching the 17.3% drop seen in November 2019. Bitcoin’s worst November on record occurred in 2018, when the cryptocurrency shed roughly 36.5% of its value.

Have Bitcoin’s Historical Patterns Shifted?

Crypto educator Sumit Kapoor highlights that November typically delivers strong returns for Bitcoin. However, subdued price action and lower trading activity during the Thanksgiving period contributed to the weakest November since 2018. Kapoor adds that historically, red Novembers are often followed by similarly negative performances in December.

On the other hand, Justin d’Anethan, Head of Research at Arctic Digital, points to a structural shift in market dynamics. He notes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States earlier in 2024 pulled forward the traditional four-year cycle. With institutional players now a dominant part of the market, d’Anethan argues that the familiar rhythm of past cycles may no longer apply, suggesting that “this time could indeed be different.”

Key Levels Ahead of the Monthly Close

Technical analysts are watching a few crucial price levels as the month draws to a close. Many emphasize that a close above 93,000 dollars would be a constructive signal. Analyst CrediBull Crypto identifies 93,401 dollars and 102,437 dollars as the primary resistance zones for this timeframe. Holding above 93,000 dollars would be considered positive, while a move beyond 102,000 dollars would signal a significantly stronger market structure. However, analysts also caution that reaching the upper threshold may not happen until the following month.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around 91,600 dollars, struggling to break above resistance near 92,000 dollars.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

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The post Bitcoin Faces Its Worst November in Seven Years: What Could 2026 Bring? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Seasonal Trends Fail to Hold This Quarter

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s most impressive month, delivering average returns above 40% according to CoinGlass data. This year, however, the market is departing from its traditional playbook. October, which normally posts close to 20% average gains, ended with a 3.69% decline instead, raising doubts about whether seasonality still provides reliable guidance.

Bitfinex analysts highlight that the current quarter has defied historical trends almost entirely. Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 20% from the start of November, signaling a clear break from its typical performance pattern.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $87,300.

Short-Term Holders Are Adding Pressure

According to Bitfinex, a major factor behind the recent downside move is the excessive buying activity that took place between $106,000 and $118,000. Many of the investors who entered the market at these levels are now selling at a loss, creating additional downward pressure.

The analysts also point out that Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holders’ cost basis for only the third time since early 2024. CoinGlass estimates that short-term holders — those who have held BTC for less than 155 days — have an average realized price of approximately $86,787.

Whale Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

Despite the overall weakness, certain metrics indicate that accumulation may be picking up again among larger investors. Data shared by Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has increased by 0.47% since November 11, suggesting that whale interest is once more gaining momentum.

What to Expect in December?

Even if seasonal patterns have been unreliable this year, historical data still portrays December as a relatively calmer month for Bitcoin, with average returns of about 4.75% since 2013.

From this point forward, the market appears to be narrowing toward two possible scenarios: a resurgence in demand that stabilizes prices or an extended accumulation phase that could deepen before a broader recovery. Either way, the coming weeks are likely to be pivotal for market sentiment.

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The post Bitcoin Struggles in November: Could Demand Be Ready to Rebound? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

November: Historically Bitcoin’s Most Bullish Month

According to Markus Thielen from 10x Research, seasonal trends should be considered in combination with broader economic factors:
“Seasonal charts certainly matter, but they must be evaluated alongside macroeconomic developments,” Thielen noted.

Expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China are contributing to a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing tariff policies continue to cast a shadow over economic stability.

U.S.–China Trade Tensions Begin to Ease

A recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was viewed as a step forward in reducing trade frictions. Trump described the talks in South Korea as “excellent.”

As part of the discussions, Trump agreed to scale back certain tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing taking stronger action against fentanyl trade, resuming soybean imports from the U.S., and suspending rare earth export restrictions for a year.

These developments come after the severe $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 11, which triggered a sharp market decline. Still, Georgetown University professor Dennis Wilder warned that the meeting merely represented “a pause” in the trade war rather than a lasting resolution.

Fed Rate Cuts and End of Quantitative Tightening

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials approved another quarter-point rate cut, lowering borrowing costs to their lowest level in three years. According to CME’s FedWatch data, traders currently assign a 63% probability to another rate cut at the December 10 meeting.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another reduction is “not a foregone conclusion,” the central bank’s decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1 is seen as bullish for risk assets. Ending QT effectively halts liquidity withdrawal from the economy — a move that historically benefits markets like Bitcoin.

Government Shutdown Impacting Crypto Regulation

The U.S. government shutdown has now stretched into its fifth week, nearing record territory as political gridlock continues. President Trump has blamed the Senate’s filibuster rule for the stalemate and urged Republicans to remove it, calling it “the nuclear option.”

Analysts note that resolving the shutdown is crucial not only for the broader economy but also for the crypto sector. The reopening of the government is seen as a key step toward finalizing several Bitcoin ETF approvals and advancing the CLARITY Act — a major bill aimed at establishing clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

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The post Bitcoin Ends October in Red, but November Could Be Its Strongest Month Yet appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Key Intraday Levels for Bitcoin

The BTC/USDT pair gained 0.36% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $98,627. If Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trend, it may face resistance at the all-time high (ATH) level. Our support levels are at $97,800 and $94,800, respectively.

Ethereum (ETH):
The ETH/USDT pair has gained 0.59% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $3,429. Resistance levels for ETH are at $3,380 initially, followed by $3,500. Support levels are located at $3,220 and $3,140.

Pendle (PENDLE):
The PENDLE/USDT pair has increased by 0.49% over the past 24 hours and is now trading at $5.54. Resistance levels for PENDLE are at $5.56, followed by $6.40. Support zones are at $5.22, with $4.95 acting as a further support level if the decline deepens.

Bonk (BONK):
The BONK/USDT pair has risen by 3.46% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $0.000047. Resistance levels for BONK are at $0.000048, followed by $0.000053. Support levels are at $0.000042 and $0.000035 if the decline intensifies.

Solana (SOL):
The SOL/USDT pair has gained 0.16% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $256. Resistance levels for SOL are at $254, followed by $264. Support zones are at $244, with $222 acting as a further support level in case of a deeper decline.

Trending Coins

In the last 24 hours, the most trending coins in the crypto market include Gigachad (GIGA), KANGO (KANGO), and StrikeX (STRX). Among the top gainers are Just a Chill Guy (CHILLGUY), aelf (ELF), and Sologenic (SOLO). On the other hand, the biggest losers include XDC Network (XDC), IoTeX (IOTX), and Kusama (KSM).

Bitcoin Liquidation Map

Looking at Bitcoin’s 12-hour liquidation map, a prominent liquidation level on the upper side stands at $99,289 with a value of $30 million. On the lower side, a significant liquidation zone is at $97,200, holding a value of $35 million.

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The post Latest Situation in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: November 25 appeared first on Coin Engineer.