Spot gold fell after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session. As of 05:54 GMT+3, the metal was trading at $5,130.94 per ounce, down 0.8% on the day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery slipped 0.4% to $5,138.20.

The U.S. dollar climbed to its highest level in more than three months, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and limiting demand. At the same time, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest level in about a month, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Stronger Dollar and Rising Yields Pressure Gold

The strengthening dollar has been one of the main drivers behind the latest move in gold prices. When the U.S. currency gains value, commodities priced in dollars tend to become more expensive for international investors, which can reduce buying interest.

At the same time, higher Treasury yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to precious metals. Since gold does not provide yield, rising bond returns often lead investors to rebalance portfolios away from bullion.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift

Market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have also changed in recent days. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on March 18.

Interest-rate market pricing shows a notable shift in sentiment. The probability that rates will remain unchanged in June has climbed to above 51%, compared with below 43% just a week earlier.

Because precious metals do not generate income, they generally perform better in low-interest-rate environments. As expectations for near-term rate cuts fade, pressure on gold prices can increase.

Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions

Energy markets moved sharply higher as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. Concerns that the expanding conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could disrupt global energy supplies pushed crude prices significantly higher.

Fears of prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, have also intensified. Some major Middle Eastern producers have reportedly begun reducing supply amid growing uncertainty.

Oil prices surged roughly 20%, climbing above $110 per barrel during the session. Brent crude futures rose to around $119.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $119.48.

Analysts at ING noted in a research note that the situation appears to be worsening. According to the bank, production slowdowns have started and several producers are facing storage constraints. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly begun cutting output.

Iran Leadership Change Adds to Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical tensions intensified further after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei.

The leadership change is widely seen as a signal that hardline political control will remain in place. Analysts say the move could add to regional uncertainty at a time when global energy markets are already facing supply concerns.

Other Precious Metals See Volatility

Other precious metals also experienced volatility during the session.

Spot silver, after falling more than 5% earlier in the day, stabilized near $84.42 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.1% to $2,133.95, while palladium declined 0.9% to around $1,610.

The broader picture across global commodity markets highlights diverging forces. While oil prices surged due to supply concerns and geopolitical risks, the combination of a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continued to create short-term pressure on precious metals.

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U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sent Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 375 points, oil prices up 8%, and gold futures up 1.6%. Traders remain on edge amid geopolitical tensions and worries about potential supply disruptions.

Equity Futures Slip and Safe‑Haven Shift

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 375 points (‑0.77%), the S&P 500 fell 0.74%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.85%. Gold futures climbed 1.6% as investors sought safety.

Today, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $5,278/oz, while spot silver (XAG/USD) is near $95/oz. These moves reflect flight‑to‑safety demand as traders price in escalating risk.

Barclays strategist Ajay Rajadhyaksha sees the risk of a prolonged conflict higher than in 2024–2025, noting that habitual quick de‑escalation trading models may be premature for dip buying.

Oil Market Uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz Risk

U.S. crude prices jumped roughly 8% in early trading on fears that wider conflict could disrupt global supply. Iran remains the fourth‑largest OPEC producer, and leadership ambiguity persists.

A prolonged stoppage at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for crude flows, could reverberate through global energy markets and reignite inflation pressures. Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi‑Asset at Janus Henderson, said rising uncertainty dampens investor confidence and adds pressure on risk assets; extended uncertainty and higher oil could fuel inflation fears.

AI Sector Volatility Adds to Geopolitical Strain

The equity market was already fragile before the conflict. The S&P 500 closed February in the red, as investors questioned whether rapid AI adoption might disrupt traditional software business models. Rising automation and layoff concerns add to broader economic anxieties.

Citi strategists say short‑term impacts may be limited, but extended friction can’t be ruled out. The reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could amplify long‑term economic drag when coupled with AI‑driven business model shifts. The promise of efficiency takes a back seat under the shadow of geopolitical turmoil.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How did the U.S.–Iran clash affect equity futures?
A: Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures fell by roughly 0.7–0.85% as investors rotated into safe havens.

Q: Why did oil prices rise?
A: Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and Middle East uncertainty raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing oil up about 8%.

Q: How did gold react?
A: Gold futures rose 1.6% as traders sought safe‑haven assets amid risk aversion.

Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz significant?
A: The strait is a critical global oil transit point; long‑term disruptions could trigger broader energy market volatility and inflationary pressures.

Q: How does Hamaney’s death affect markets?
A: Beyond short‑term swings, coupled with AI‑linked economic shifts, it may heighten prolonged friction in markets.

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Trump told the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington that negotiations were “going well,” but demanded a “meaningful agreement” from Tehran. Recalling U.S. airstrikes in June, he added, “Their nuclear potential has been almost completely decimated. We may have to take it a step further—or maybe not.”

Later, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said, “I think 10–15 days is enough.” He refused to go into specifics but stressed that Iran would have to make a deal one way or another. Meanwhile, Tehran wrote to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, stating it would not start a war but would respond decisively and proportionately if subjected to military aggression. “All bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets,” the letter said, adding that the U.S. “would bear full responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences.”

Talks and Remaining Gaps

U.S. and Iranian delegations met last Tuesday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said they agreed on “guiding principles,” but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated some differences remain. Trump commented, “Good talks are being had,” adding that Iran would submit a written proposal to address U.S. concerns.

Trump called on Tehran to join the U.S. on the path to peace. “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. It’s very simple. There can be no peace in the Middle East otherwise,” he said. Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful and refuses to negotiate on its long-range missile program.

Military Moves and Regional Tensions

The U.S. has deployed aircraft carriers, warships, and jets to the region, raising the prospect of another strike on Iran. Last June, the U.S. and Israel targeted Iranian nuclear sites. Washington wants Iran to stop uranium enrichment entirely, abandon long-range ballistic missiles, cease supporting regional groups, and refrain from using force against domestic protests. Iran, however, insists it will only negotiate on nuclear matters, calling other demands a red line.

Satellite imagery shows Iran has been repairing and fortifying nuclear and missile sites since last summer, and preparing around U.S. bases over the past month. Joint naval exercises with Russia reflect growing tensions, with Iranian special forces deployed on ships and helicopters.

Global Reactions and Oil Prices

Trump’s threats pushed oil prices higher. Russia warned of “unprecedented escalation” and urged restraint. Poland advised citizens to leave Iran urgently; Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, “You may only have hours to evacuate.”

Trump has been ramping up threats since January, amid deadly crackdowns on nationwide protests in Iran that left thousands dead. The U.S. president has not yet decided on an attack. If authorized, a limited airstrike could occur within days, targeting military and government buildings.

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Gold also reached a new record high as investors sought safe-haven assets, with its price hitting $3,433. The crypto market showed signs of recovery with strong buying momentum after last week’s turbulence. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has started a new uptrend by holding above $104,400. As a result, investors continued to turn toward risk assets ahead of the critical FOMC decision. 

FOMC and BoJ Decisions to Shape Market Direction 

JPMorgan analysts reminded that Iran controls 3.5% of global oil supply. The potential for Brent oil to reach $130 per barrel has raised expectations of a new wave of inflation in the markets. If this level is reached, U.S. inflation could hit 5%, possibly delaying the Fed’s rate cut plans. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made cautious remarks about interest rate cuts. Powell refused to take hasty action, considering that Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher. Still, 40% of investors in the futures market expect two rate cuts by the end of the year. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering postponing its rate hike to Q1 2025 due to problems in the bond market. According to Reuters, BoJ plans to maintain tight monetary policy during this period. 

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and $130 Oil Scenario Shake the Markets 

Some analysts at JPMorgan reiterated Iran’s 3.5% share in global oil supply. Combined with geopolitical risks, they forecast oil prices could exceed $130 per barrel. Such an increase could push U.S. consumer inflation close to 5%. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that this scenario would significantly delay the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts. 

Experts also defined the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the most severe geopolitical scenario. Iran could use its dominance over the strait to disrupt global energy supply. 

Bitcoin continues to stay resilient amid all these developments. Investors are still in search of safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. BTC’s trading volume rose 14%, surpassing $40.5 billion, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity. 

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Michael Saylor, co-founder of the strategy firm, hinted that they would purchase more Bitcoin when traditional markets open on Monday. This statement drew attention especially amidst the tense geopolitical climate in the Middle East. Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran have caused unease in global financial markets, while Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its value during this time reinforces investor confidence. 

With the latest purchase on June 9, the firm acquired 1,045 BTC worth $110 million. This brings the total BTC holdings to 582,000. According to SaylorTracker data, the company has an unrealized capital gain exceeding 50%. This translates to a potential profit of approximately $20 billion. 

Bitcoin’s resilience around the $105,000 level makes it increasingly viewed by investors as a “safe haven” amid global market stress. Despite the weekend’s military developments, the price only dropped by 3% and quickly stabilized. 

Bitcoin Remains Strong Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions 

Experts warn that Iran’s potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious threat to global energy markets. This strategic passage accounts for about 20% of the world’s oil supply. Any closure could spike oil prices and rattle financial markets. Rising energy costs can trigger a ripple effect across economic activity. 

Nevertheless, institutional confidence in Bitcoin continues to grow. According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs saw capital inflows for the fifth consecutive day. The total weekly inflow exceeded $1.3 billion. 

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment, stands at 50. This level suggests a market dominated by “greed,” reinforcing belief in the bullish trend of digital assets. 

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Crypto Crash: Bitcoin Falls Below $103K, Ethereum Plunges Over 10%

Shortly after news broke of Israeli airstrikes targeting key sites in Iran, Bitcoin fell sharply, losing over 3% in 24 hours to trade at $103,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum saw a steeper decline, crashing over 10% to $2,450. Both BTC and ETH suffered as investors fled risky assets in favor of safer havens.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Reports from Al-Jazeera confirmed that explosions were heard in Tehran, following an Axios report about the Israeli operation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that his country targeted Iran’s nuclear program and that the strikes will continue until the threat is “completely removed.”

Global Markets in Turmoil

The impact of the attack isn’t limited to crypto:

• U.S. stock futures dropped around 1.5%.
• Gold jumped 0.75% to $3,428 per ounce.
• Crude oil soared 9% to $74 a barrel.
• Treasury yields declined, while safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc strengthened.

With Iran vowing retaliation and Israel calling up thousands of reserve troops, the situation remains tense. Analysts warn that if conflict escalates, further losses in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risk assets are likely.

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