Global investors are now monitoring two key factors simultaneously: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and growing energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz. At this point, market behavior is sitting on a particularly sensitive equilibrium.

Why Gold Prices Remain Stable

Gold has remained resilient despite waning expectations for rate cuts, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields. These factors offset inflationary pressure from high energy prices, keeping gold above $5,000.

Earlier on Monday, gold experienced a roughly 1% drop. However, losses were quickly recovered as the dollar weakened. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,020 per ounce.

Meanwhile, April U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $5,024 per ounce, showing that the market is still searching for direction. The key driver here is actually a threefold balance: the dollar, Treasury yields, and energy prices.

When the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand.

Additionally, falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields provide support for gold, as non-yielding assets like gold and silver become more attractive when yields decline.

Oil Remains Above $100

The Middle East conflict is directly affecting energy markets. As tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran enter the third week, oil remains above $100 per barrel.

This situation not only impacts energy markets but also affects global inflation expectations. High oil prices increase transportation and production costs, thereby strengthening inflationary pressure.

Gold is generally seen as a hedge against inflation. However, if inflation rises and central banks are forced to maintain high rates, real yields could increase, limiting gold’s upside.

According to OCBC strategist Christopher Wong, high energy prices may make the Fed more cautious about rate cuts. Essentially, the market is caught between two forces: geopolitical and inflation risks on one side, and the possibility of higher rates on the other.

Market Waiting Ahead of Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.

The market expects policy rates to remain unchanged, but investors are watching the Fed’s messaging closely.

If Fed officials signal that energy-driven inflation remains a concern, expectations for rate cuts could be further delayed.

Even if rates remain unchanged, changes in communication could swiftly shift market balance.

Meanwhile, the interplay of Treasury yields, the dollar index, and commodity prices is currently delicate. Small announcements can trigger significant price movements.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Energy Diplomacy

Geopolitical tensions remain high. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz are critical for global energy security.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration has held talks with seven countries to secure the Strait.

This move is not only military but also a signal of new energy diplomacy in the Gulf. Trump also threatened increased attacks on Iran’s main oil export terminal at Kharg Island, while stating that no peace agreement is currently on the table.

He emphasized that countries heavily reliant on Gulf oil bear responsibility for protecting the Strait.

This underscores that global energy supply is both an economic and security matter.

Other Precious Metals Gain

The cautious balance in gold has also extended to other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $80.62 per ounce. Platinum increased 1.8% to $2,060, while palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,576 per ounce.

Currently, the market is pricing three risk factors simultaneously: energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy.

The coming days will reveal which direction this threefold equation pushes gold prices, as global market balance—risk premiums and real yields—is being recalculated in real time.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) doesn’t track the dollar against a single currency—it measures it collectively against six major currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. So when DXY tops 99.00, it shows the dollar’s overall strength on a global scale, not just against one currency.

DXY Breakout and Technical Dynamics

The index measures the dollar against six major currency pairs. In morning trading, it crossed 99.00. Volumes spiked. Truthfully, this came after a few months of consolidation—a sharp move. The euro and pound fell, yen also dropped. In other words, there’s a coordinated risk-off sentiment.

For instance, historically, geopolitical crises and dollar strength are tightly linked. Actually, in 2022, during the first days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, similar patterns appeared. Back then, markets also quickly moved toward safe-haven assets.

Currently, staying above 99.00 could put the 100.00 level in sight. But uncertainty still dominates the market.

Middle East Conflict: Driving Safe-Haven Demand

Why is the dollar rising? Simply put: escalating military tensions in the Middle East and threats to global energy supply. Investors are fleeing riskier assets, turning to the US dollar as a safe haven. This perception of geopolitical risk is the main force pushing DXY above 99.00.

The intensifying military activity isn’t just a security issue—it also threatens the global energy supply chain. Conflicts are complex, involving many actors. Oil prices have risen—currently around $97.75 per barrel—but the dollar is moving faster. Some traders are focusing more on liquidity than commodities. In the short term, this risk-off sentiment strongly supports the dollar.

Currency Pairs and Corporate Impacts

When the dollar strengthens, winners and losers emerge. Emerging market currencies are particularly vulnerable. Debt is often in dollars, making repayments more expensive. The euro has hit lows in recent weeks. The Japanese yen is falling due to loose monetary policy, while the Fed’s hawkish stance pushes USD/JPY up. Could this conflict influence Fed interest rate decisions? Potentially, yes. Rising risks blur the economic outlook; if energy costs rise or growth slows, the Fed may postpone plans, directly affecting the dollar’s trajectory.

For companies, the impact is twofold. Overseas earnings shrink when converted to dollars, while importers benefit from stronger purchasing power. Historical examples show safe-haven moves start quickly, then slow. There’s currently no coordinated global intervention. So the dollar could remain strong in the near term.

Key Currency Pair Moves

• EUR/USD: Down 1.2% due to regional risk and energy concerns.

• USD/JPY: Up 1.5% from Fed-BoJ policy divergence.

• GBP/USD: Down 0.8% amid general risk-off sentiment.

Market Watch

• Fed Communication: Any change in interest rate guidance?

• Geopolitical Developments: Diplomacy progress or rising tensions?

• Commodity Prices: How are oil and gold moving?

• Capital Flows: Are funds moving into US assets?

Conclusion: DXY surpassing 99.00 highlights market concern. Escalating Middle East tensions triggered classic safe-haven demand. The move impacts currency pairs, corporate strategies, and global finance outlooks. In the short term, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Ultimately, the trajectory depends on geopolitical developments and central bank responses. Still, the dollar remains the world’s primary safe-haven asset.

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Gold prices started Thursday with a limited decline. Spot gold traded at $5,153.79 per ounce, falling about 0.4%. At the same time, U.S. gold futures for April delivery also dropped 0.4% to $5,159.20.

Several factors are driving this move. The most notable is the strengthening U.S. dollar. The dollar index rose around 0.2%, making dollar-denominated assets such as gold and silver more expensive for investors holding other currencies. The market’s familiar reaction followed: as the dollar gained strength, gold stepped back slightly.

Oil prices climb above $100 again

The energy market is telling a very different story. Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp price movements in oil markets. With Iran increasing attacks across the region, oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel.

Tehran has also warned that the world should prepare for a potential $200 per barrel oil scenario. Such statements have created a psychological impact on markets, pushing the geopolitical risk premium higher.

The situation is not limited to rhetoric. According to sources, Iran is believed to have placed roughly a dozen naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a critical route for global oil and LNG shipments, and tanker traffic there has nearly come to a halt.

Some tankers have reportedly been stranded for more than a week, and storage capacities are approaching their limits. As a result, certain producers have temporarily paused production. In other words, the recent rise in oil prices is not driven solely by geopolitical messaging but also by logistical disruptions.

IEA moves to release reserves

In an effort to limit the shock in energy markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has taken a significant step. The agency approved the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.

This is considered one of the largest coordinated reserve releases in the oil market in decades. However, analysts suggest it may not be enough to push prices down in a lasting way. The issue now extends beyond supply levels; geopolitical risk and transportation security have become central to market pricing.

Fed rate cut expectations pushed back

Rising energy prices are also reviving inflation concerns. Higher oil costs could increase global price pressures in the months ahead.

Because of this, some financial institutions are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate timeline. Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for Fed rate cuts, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The bank now expects two quarter-point rate cuts in September and December.

Macroeconomic data has been relatively balanced so far. According to the latest figures, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in February, matching expectations. In January, the monthly increase had been 0.2%.

On a yearly basis, inflation reached 2.4%, again in line with forecasts. However, the renewed rise in energy prices could complicate this balance in the coming months.

Markets await the PCE inflation report

Investors are now focused on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicators. The data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

If the PCE figure comes in stronger than expected, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed further into the future. Such a scenario may continue to create short-term pressure on gold prices.

Silver, platinum and palladium prices

The precious metals market showed mixed movements beyond gold.

• Spot silver: down 0.5% to $85.33

• Spot platinum: down 0.3% to $2,162.24

• Palladium: up 0.3% to $1,642.05

Overall, the market is not moving in a single direction. Energy prices are rising while precious metals are experiencing cautious pullbacks. On one side lies geopolitical risk; on the other, shifting interest-rate expectations. Markets appear to be pricing in two competing narratives at the same time.

In short, the surge in oil prices is indirectly affecting the gold market through inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks. Over the coming days, developments in energy markets and upcoming U.S. economic data could play a decisive role in shaping the direction of precious metals.

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Spot gold gained 0.2% to $5,202.10 per ounce. April-delivery US gold futures fell 0.6% to $5,211. Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel. Gold has gained more than 20% this year amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaching consecutive record levels.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on March 18 but still anticipate at least two rate cuts this year.

Fluctuations in Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, while palladium gained 0.9% to $1,669.82.

Investors are unsettled by uncertainty over the future of the Iran conflict. The dollar has shown volatility. Global markets are pricing in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the conflict soon. At the same time, Trump continues to threaten harsh penalties against Iran over attempts to block energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Short-Term Reactions in the Currency Market

• The euro rebounded slightly by 0.18% to $1.163175 from Monday’s three-month low. The pound rose 0.25% to $1.3449.
• The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell to 98.773, near Monday’s three-month high.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Investors on Edge

On the 12th day of the war, the US and Israel conducted reciprocal airstrikes against Iranian forces across the Middle East. The besieged Tehran government warned that state security forces are “on alert with fingers ready” if anti-government protests flare up again.

Rapidly developing events are forcing investors to price risk carefully. Another key focus is the February US inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% for the month, while overall prices increase by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves. This development contributed to the drop in oil prices.

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This figure was around 20% just a few months ago—risk perception has clearly shifted.

Interestingly, despite this environment, the crypto market—especially its largest asset—remains relatively stable.

Bitcoin Holds Around $67K

In the first trading hours of the week, the leading cryptocurrency traded at approximately $67,378.

This reflects a 1.1% increase in the past 24 hours, while weekly movements remain largely in the same range.

Other major crypto assets also saw limited gains:

• Ethereum (ETH) rose roughly 2.3% to $1,981, just below the $2,000 psychological level

• BNB reached $624, up 1.4%

• Dogecoin traded at $0.09, up 1.8%

• Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% weekly

• XRP remained steady at $1.35, down about 1% weekly

Crypto markets are showing relative calm, contrasting sharply with global equities.

Global Markets Under Pressure

In Asian trading hours, S&P 500 futures fell more than 2%.

The VIX volatility index, a key risk gauge, has surged to its highest level since the April tariff crisis.

Oil remaining above $100 further complicates the picture. Rising energy costs not only impact business expenses but also push inflation expectations higher, which in turn pressures central banks.

Fed Caught Between Two Fires

Ed Yardeni points out that the US economy is stuck between two pressures:

• The risk of renewed inflation triggered by rising oil prices

• The threat of higher unemployment due to economic slowdown

This scenario limits the Federal Reserve’s policy maneuvering. Yardeni raises the market collapse probability to 35%, while assigning only a 5% chance for a strong bullish scenario.

Bitcoin Correlation with Stocks

Although Bitcoin has recently moved in parallel with tech stocks, new data suggest the correlation is limited.

According to research by NYDIG, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movement can be explained by US equities. The remaining 75% stems from crypto-specific factors.

NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro explains that recent parallels with US software stocks reflect shared macro exposure rather than structural convergence.

What Happens If Risk Aversion Surges?

Historically, during major market stress periods since 2020, investors have tended to move from volatile assets to cash, US dollars, or government bonds.

Bitcoin has not been immune to these sell-offs. Therefore, if global risk-aversion spikes, cryptocurrencies may not remain fully insulated.

Currently, however, crypto markets appear comparatively resilient.

US Markets’ Cushion Is Shrinking

Until recently, US markets were more resilient than other regions, partly due to energy self-sufficiency.

However, the 2% drop in Monday futures signals that even this buffer is weakening.

If global risk appetite continues to decline, US markets—and by extension crypto—may also face pressure. For now, Bitcoin remains relatively stable.

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As geopolitical risks increase in global markets, investors are closely watching gold prices. Movements in gram gold, spot gold and oil prices have become more pronounced amid rising war risks and concerns about potential disruptions in global energy supply.

Middle East Crisis Deepens

The flow of news indicating an expansion of the conflict played a decisive role in financial markets. Developments on Wednesday suggested that tensions are beginning to stretch beyond regional boundaries.

A U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people. On the same day, NATO air defense systems reportedly intercepted and destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

And the geopolitical picture does not end there.

The son of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emerged as one of the leading figures to potentially succeed him. This development strengthens expectations that Tehran may not easily back down from the confrontation. The military campaign launched by the United States and Israel five days ago has already killed hundreds of people and triggered volatility across global markets.

As a result, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a prolonged geopolitical crisis rather than a short-lived escalation.

Volatility in Gold Prices May Continue

Market analysts believe two different dynamics are currently influencing gold prices. The first is the classic safe-haven demand that typically emerges during geopolitical crises. The second is the heightened volatility driven by uncertainty surrounding the conflict.

According to analysts, the ongoing crisis could support gold prices over the longer term. However, until there are clear signals that the conflict is de-escalating, price movements are expected to remain sharp and volatile.

Gold has already delivered a remarkable performance since the beginning of the year. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the precious metal has gained about 20% since the start of 2026, repeatedly hitting new record highs.

Oil Prices Also Surge

Energy markets also reacted quickly to geopolitical developments.

Concerns that oil and natural gas supplies in the Middle East could be disrupted pushed energy prices higher. Brent crude rose 3.26% to $83.99 per barrel on Thursday morning, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 3.70% to $77.42 per barrel.

The main scenario currently being discussed in energy markets is straightforward: if the conflict expands further, global oil supply chains could come under serious pressure.

A New Fed Chair Candidate

Alongside geopolitical developments, there is also notable news on the monetary policy front.

U.S. President Donald Trump officially nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. central bank.

Warsh is widely viewed by markets as a policymaker who may be more open to interest-rate cuts, a factor that has already sparked renewed debate about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

However, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18 meeting.

Investors are now focusing on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data. Weekly jobless claims due later in the day and the February employment report scheduled for Friday are seen as key indicators for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

How Much Is Gram Gold Now?

Sharp movements in global gold prices have also affected the Turkish market.

Gram gold, which started the week above 8,000 TL in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, quickly retreated to around 7,400 TL before partially recovering and stabilizing near 7,500 TL.

Earlier in the week, spot gram gold had tested 7,661 TL. On Tuesday, prices fell sharply and dropped to 7,066 TL. By the third trading day of the week, however, the market began to recover, pushing gram gold back above 7,300 TL.

In short, the main factor determining the direction of gold prices is no longer limited to inflation or interest rates.

Latest Gold and Oil Prices

Current market levels are as follows:

• Spot Gold: $5,177

• Gram Gold: 7,500 TL

• Brent Crude: $83.99

• WTI Crude: $77.42

As global markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, investors are debating whether gold prices could reach new highs if tensions continue to escalate.

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With geopolitical risks rising, S&P 500 losses remaining below 1% have surprised even the major bank.

Solomon noted that market reactions were calmer than expected:

“Looking at market responses… given the magnitude, I expected a stronger reaction.”

How Are Markets Reacting Now?

Energy prices are rising sharply. Expanding conflict has triggered supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have shifted from riskier assets to safe havens, strengthening the dollar while global stock indexes saw modest declines. Losses on Wall Street were relatively mild; the S&P 500 recovered early-day losses over two sessions, ending with a drop below 1%.

Solomon emphasized that this calm reflects how geopolitical events usually do not directly affect economic growth. However, cumulative effects may emerge later:

“We haven’t seen the cumulative effect yet. There’s still a lot unknown, so predictions are difficult.”

What Is the US Economy’s Condition?

Solomon stated that strong macroeconomic fundamentals make the US economy resilient. Looser monetary policy and regulatory relief have helped support growth.

According to the CEO, the US economy may “overheat slightly” this year, potentially pushing inflation above expectations. Private credit portfolios remain healthy, but during long credit cycles, slower growth could expose weaker lending standards:

“Competition in capital allocation is putting pressure on lending standards. If a slowdown or recession occurs, weak spots will become more evident.”

Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping White-Collar Work

Goldman Sachs is using AI to automate processes. While headcount remains largely stable, productivity is increasing and employees are being redirected to different roles. Short-term effects are beginning to be felt, but no long-term labor shortage is expected.

The CEO’s remarks are critical for understanding market risk perception and workforce planning in banking. Solomon described AI’s effects as “complex,” noting that short- and medium-term impacts are not yet fully clear.

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In short, the market is no longer driven by traditional data flows but is directly pricing in geopolitical risk.

Why Did Oil Rise?

Long-dominant drivers like inventory data, economic indicators, or OPEC statements have been temporarily overshadowed. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, the price action is currently determined by something simpler: military developments in the Middle East.

Sachdeva identifies four key factors investors are closely monitoring in the near term:

• Physical oil exports from Gulf countries

• Verified tanker incidents

• US naval activity in the region

• Iran’s diplomatic and military statements

Any of these could trigger rapid price movements. Tanker security, in particular, is increasingly critical. The recent movements in energy markets are not limited to oil. European gas prices have surged in recent days, while refineries in Asia are seeking alternative supplies. These rapid changes suggest a new price equilibrium may be forming in global markets.

Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Energy Flow

Israeli and US forces struck targets across Iran on Tuesday, prompting retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic. This region accounts for roughly one-third of global oil production.

Crucially, about 20% of global oil and LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively closed to tanker traffic. US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of the US Navy escorting oil tankers through the Strait if necessary, alongside political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf.

Markets remain cautious, as war risk insurance is rapidly being canceled and new mechanisms will take time to implement.

Iraq Production at Risk: 3 Million Barrel Exposure

The impact on oil supply extends beyond Iran. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has cut production by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage limits and export disruptions.

If exports do not resume soon, Iraq could halt roughly 3 million barrels per day, potentially triggering another surge in global oil prices.

Rising Energy Prices Push Dollar Up, Euro Down

The rapid rise in energy prices is affecting not only oil but also global currency markets. The US dollar traded near a three-month high on Wednesday in Asia, while the euro fell 0.2% to $1.1590, extending a three-day losing streak.

George Saravelos, global head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank, explains: the impact boils down to energy. Rising energy costs are effectively a dollar-denominated tax for European consumers, potentially putting pressure on the European Central Bank and sparking discussions about possible rate hikes.

Market Snapshot

• Brent Crude: $82.57
• WTI Crude: $75.28
• Euro/Dollar: 1.1590
• US Dollar Index: 99.2

How the Energy Crisis is Affecting Global Markets

Rising energy prices are forcing countries to look for alternative sources:

• India and Indonesia are exploring new energy supplies

• Chinese refineries are accelerating maintenance schedules

• Tanker traffic in the Gulf has slowed dramatically

• European natural gas prices surged nearly 70% in a few days

Such price shocks rarely affect a single market, impacting inflation, bond markets, currency, and equities simultaneously. The current period reflects exactly that chain reaction.

US Oil Inventories Rise Above Expectations

Despite geopolitical tensions, US inventory data provides a different signal. According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels last week, well above the 2.3 million barrel expectation. Official figures from the US Department of Energy are expected later.

Normally, such a large inventory increase would push prices lower. But in the current environment, markets are focusing more on military developments in the Middle East.

Investors Eye Three Key Factors

Short-term oil price direction depends on:

• Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens

• US naval escort plans

• Potential halt in Iraqi production

These combined could trigger another surge in oil prices—or the opposite. Geopolitical risks can rise and fall rapidly, and markets are aware. Prices rise… but caution remains.

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Oil Shock and Inflation Pressure

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased the risk of a rapid surge in oil prices. Disruption to a substantial portion of global supply could push not only crude oil prices but also logistics, production, and transportation costs higher. Rising energy costs can feed through to consumer prices, potentially pushing inflation expectations upward. If oil prices remain persistently high, inflation could accelerate, leading the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay rate cuts or maintain tight monetary policy longer. A “prolonged high interest rate” environment restricts liquidity and puts pressure on risk assets. In this context, the cryptocurrency market could be negatively affected due to higher financing costs and reduced risk appetite.

Why the Crypto Market Is Under Pressure

Although Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are theoretically considered “alternative stores of value,” in practice they are still priced as risky assets. During periods of global uncertainty like an energy shock, investors’ first reaction is usually risk reduction.

In such periods:

• Leveraged positions are liquidated
• Liquidity is preserved
• There is a shift toward traditional “safe-haven” assets

Recent liquidations show that the market’s initial reaction is not a clear directional move but rather volatility and deleveraging.

The Fed Factor: The Key Determinant

The primary risk for the crypto market is not the war or oil news themselves but how these developments affect Fed policy. Persistent increases in oil prices could drive inflation higher, delaying rate cuts and postponing expected monetary easing.

A “prolonged high interest rate” scenario:

• Restricts liquidity: Less money enters the market, and credit conditions remain tight.
• Reduces demand for risky assets: Investors prefer safer, interest-bearing instruments.
• Could delay Bitcoin and altcoin rallies: With limited new capital inflows, upward movements may be constrained.

Some institutional trading desks consider the $58,000–$60,000 range as critical support for Bitcoin. Whether this holds depends largely on whether the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance. Persistent inflation pressure could prompt retests of this support.

Could Stablecoin Demand Rise?

In crisis regions, local currency depreciation may increase demand for stablecoins. Dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT can serve as fast tools for preserving value and transferring capital. In situations where banking access is limited or local currencies lose value quickly, stablecoins can act as a “digital escape hatch.” However, historical data shows that such individual capital flows often fail to offset large-scale institutional outflows during periods of macro tightening.

Liquidity tightening and a global risk-off trend could hit the altcoin market harder. Bitcoin is generally seen as the more resilient asset, while Ethereum and the broader altcoin segment rely more on fresh capital inflows. Strong, sustainable rallies require new liquidity. In an energy crisis and high interest rate scenario, tighter financial conditions could hinder this liquidity, increasing volatility and downward pressure on altcoins.

Conclusion

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could indirectly pressure the crypto market by affecting inflation and interest rate expectations via global energy supply. Short-term volatility seems likely, while medium-term outcomes will depend on Fed actions. For the crypto market to enter a strong upward trend again, it will require not only reduced geopolitical tension but also improved liquidity conditions. In this process, oil prices and central bank policies will remain the most critical macro indicators for Bitcoin and altcoins.

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Risk perception across global markets has clearly intensified in recent days. During Asian trading hours, spot gold climbed 0.7 percent to $5,368 per ounce. Prices had already reached their highest level in more than four weeks in the previous session and maintained upward momentum into the new trading day. Meanwhile, U.S. April gold futures rose 1.5 percent to around $5,391.90 per ounce.

How Much Is Gram Gold Today?

The rise in international gold prices has also affected domestic markets in Türkiye. Combined with exchange-rate effects, gold prices in the local market moved upward as well.

As of the morning of March 3, 2026, gram gold is trading around 7,590 Turkish lira, up approximately 0.7 percent. As long as geopolitical risk pricing continues in global markets, volatility in gram gold prices may also persist.

Market analysts note that safe-haven demand could strengthen further if the conflict expands. During periods of uncertainty, gold often becomes one of the first assets investors turn to.

Why Are Gold Prices Rising?

Several key factors are driving the latest surge in gold prices. First, escalating military tensions in the Middle East have significantly increased risk perception in global markets.

Second, investor demand for safe-haven assets has risen sharply. In times of uncertainty, portfolios often shift part of their allocation toward gold.

Another major factor comes from the energy market. Rising oil prices are bringing global inflation concerns back into focus. When inflation expectations increase, gold typically gains demand as a hedge.

Why Are Oil Prices Increasing?

The main driver behind the rise in oil prices is developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian media reports, a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the strait had been closed and warned that ships attempting to pass through the area could be targeted.

This statement triggered serious concerns in energy markets. Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through this strategic waterway.

While a full disruption has not yet occurred, markets often price potential risks rather than confirmed events. The upward pressure on oil prices reflects exactly this scenario.

What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

This is currently the most critical scenario discussed in energy markets. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly disrupt global oil supply.

According to experts, such a scenario could lead to rapid and sharp increases in oil prices, as this route is one of the most important transit points for global energy shipments.

For this reason, energy markets are closely watching not only the military developments but also potential disruptions in maritime trade.

Why Isn’t Gold Falling While the Dollar Is Strong?

Under normal market conditions, a stronger U.S. dollar tends to put pressure on gold prices. When the dollar gains value, gold becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

However, this relationship often shifts during geopolitical crises.

The U.S. dollar index has remained near a five-week high, while gold prices have continued to climb at the same time. This suggests a classic safe-haven reaction in financial markets. Investors are moving toward both the dollar and gold simultaneously.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that gold’s rise despite the strong dollar highlights the level of geopolitical risk currently priced into markets. According to him, higher oil prices and potential disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push global inflation concerns back to the forefront.

Trump Signals New Wave of Attacks

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran would continue “for as long as necessary.” He also warned that a new and larger wave of attacks could occur soon, although he did not provide specific operational details.

The conflict is already affecting more than just military dynamics. Civilian casualties have been reported in Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. Global air travel has faced disruptions, and maritime trade in the region has slowed significantly. Shipping activity near the Strait of Hormuz has declined notably.

Other Precious Metals Also Move Higher

Rising geopolitical tensions have not only affected gold but also other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 1.4 percent to $90.67 per ounce, reaching its highest level in four weeks.

Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $2,316.50, while palladium gained 1.6 percent to $1,795.08.

Global markets will likely focus on three major developments in the coming days: whether the conflict in the Middle East expands, the status of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of energy prices on global inflation.

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