RSI Divergence and Historical Examples

The classic RSI divergence between February 15 and March 1 allowed Ethereum to rise 15% and reach a peak near $2,200. The current movement follows a similar technical pattern. However, on-chain accumulation and exchange outflows that supported the previous rise are not as strong this time.

Exchange Flows: Rising Inflows and Selling Pressure

On March 9, the exchange net position change turned positive, with inflows reaching 146,709 ETH. Rising inflows typically indicate that investors are moving coins onto exchanges, increasing the likelihood of selling pressure. Facing selling pressure immediately after this divergence is not a positive sign for bullish hopes.

Whale behavior has also shifted. Large investors reduced their holdings from 113.70M ETH on March 7 to approximately 113.61M ETH on March 10, a decrease of around 90,000 ETH. This combination shows that the current recovery lacks the accumulation support that fueled the previous 15% ETH price rise.

On-Chain Cost Data and Resistance Levels

URPD data shows that over 4% of Ethereum’s supply is concentrated between $2,030 and $2,180. These areas act as resistance where investors may sell near their cost basis.

• $2,130: The first critical level that must be breached for a strong move.

• $2,200: Psychological resistance that capped the March rise; 8-hour close here is important.

• $2,270: Next major supply cluster; must be overcome for sustained bullish momentum.

A drop below $2,000 could weaken the recovery thesis, and a further decline toward $1,910 would reinforce the overall downtrend. Ethereum must first surpass $2,130 to maintain bullish hopes. The next key hurdle is the psychological $2,200 level, which limited the previous March rise. A confirmed 8-hour close above $2,200 would indicate absorption of nearby supply clusters and open the path toward $2,270.

Short-Term Perspective

The current recovery appears technically valid. However, on-chain data, whale activity, and dense supply clusters suggest that the rally may face stronger resistance than the previous attempt. Can Ethereum overcome these barriers, or will selling pressure return?

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While this figure alone may seem modest, the two-week trend tells a different story. During this period, total new investments flowing into spot BTC ETFs have reached around $1.47 billion.

The market is closely monitoring whether institutional demand is showing a clear recovery after a weak start to the year.

ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin Prices

BTC has shown renewed upward momentum in recent days. The fresh capital flowing into spot ETFs appears to have a supportive effect on prices after weeks of stagnation.

According to SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $1.47 billion in new allocations over the past two weeks.

Data from Bloomberg Intelligence over a broader timeframe indicate a similar trend. Investors have directed around $1.7 billion into U.S. spot BTC ETFs since February 24, signaling that institutional players may feel the market has bottomed, at least in the short term.

ETF Flows Don’t Always Impact Spot Prices Immediately

Not all market participants share the same optimism.

Bitfinex analysts note that ETF inflows do not always translate directly into immediate buying pressure in the spot market. Authorized participants can sometimes create ETF shares and short sell before acquiring underlying Bitcoin, meaning the actual impact on prices may be delayed.

Bitcoin Seen as a Geopolitical Hedge

Nevertheless, some market observers see a changing role for Bitcoin. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng suggests BTC is increasingly considered a geopolitical hedge, rather than purely a speculative risk asset.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin trades 24/7 and can move across borders instantly, allowing capital to react quickly during periods of geopolitical tension. For some investors, this makes Bitcoin a potential safe haven in global crises.

On-Chain Data Suggest Caution

Blockchain data indicate a more cautious picture.

Glassnode reports that buying momentum has significantly weakened, and realized profits have sharply declined. The 30-day moving average of realized gains has fallen approximately 63% since early February.

Only 57% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit

Another key metric is the portion of Bitcoin supply in profit.

At current levels, only about 57% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit, a level historically associated with the early stages of bear markets.

Glassnode also highlights the short-term investors’ cost basis, estimated near $70,000. This suggests that approaching this level may trigger exits from break-even positions, potentially converting upward moves into distribution zones.

Critical Price Range

Overall, the picture for BTC is complex.

On one hand, institutional capital via ETFs signals renewed market stability. On the other, on-chain data suggest investor behavior could remain fragile.

Many analysts view the $70,000–$72,000 range as a key zone that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Current Bitcoin Metrics

• Bitcoin price: ~$72,500

• ETF net inflows (latest day): $155 million

• Two-week ETF inflows: ~$1.47 billion

• Total inflows since Feb 24: ~$1.7 billion

• Bitcoin supply in profit: ~57%

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Fear Index at Historic Lows

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 5/100, signaling “extreme fear.” This level has only been seen three times since 2018: August 2019, June 2022, and early February 2026. Panic is present, but so is potential opportunity.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin reached $68,600 but is now stuck near the bottom of its range. According to CoinGlass, over 136,000 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling $458 million, with 92% coming from leveraged long positions. This highlights that short-term risk appetite remains limited.

Weekly Realized Losses

Glassnode reports show that investors who bought Bitcoin at the beginning of February were experiencing roughly $1.24 billion in daily losses. This figure has now fallen to $480 million, meaning new investors are still enduring significant daily losses. Panic has eased but bottoming processes continue. Short-term traders are still selling at a loss, which is typical during consolidation periods rather than during strong uptrends.

Whales and On-Chain Dynamics

Large whales holding 100,000–1,000,000 BTC accumulated roughly 13,460 BTC, a cautious buy signal.
Mid-size whales with 10,000–100,000 BTC sold about 10,000 BTC in the same period.

CryptoQuant data shows that nearly two-thirds of all BTC moving to exchanges comes from the top 10 wallets, with an all-time high exchange whale ratio of 0.64. Average daily deposits on altcoin exchanges rose to around 49,000 in 2026, up from 40,000 in Q4 2025—aligning with higher volatility and lower risk appetite.

Stablecoin inflows have sharply contracted: from a one-year peak of $616 million in November to just $27 million currently. This indicates limited short-term buying power.

Why Is Bitcoin Falling?

The recent drop is not only technical; macro risks play a major role. Tensions along the Washington–Tehran line are rising, while Trump’s tariff decisions add uncertainty. The critical 48-hour period in Geneva appears to have pushed investors away from risky assets, increasing demand for gold and silver. Meanwhile, Trump’s decision to raise tariffs to 15% caused expectations of global supply chain disruption. Despite a weakening dollar, Bitcoin remains pressured; Nasdaq is down 0.9%, and stablecoin inflows are historically low. Technical support is intact, but macro risks continue to weigh on the price.

Technical Support and Resistance

Bitcoin’s $65,000 support level is now a critical pivot. The 72,600–73,200 resistance zone contains approximately 149,000 BTC. As the price approaches, investors at breakeven may close positions. Whale accumulation might not fully absorb this supply.

Beyond technicals, psychological resistance matters as well. If $72,000 is not breached, selling pressure may continue, limiting upward attempts.

Sharpe Ratio and Risk Analysis

Notably, Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio fell to -38.4, indicating how severely its risk-adjusted performance underperformed. Historically, such deep negative levels in early 2015, early 2019, and late 2022 marked “Low Risk” accumulation zones. Interestingly, each occurrence preceded major bull runs, suggesting potential long-term opportunities.

Macro and Market Waves

US stock index futures are down; Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%. Precious metals surged sharply: gold +2%, silver +5.6%.

Bitcoin’s 12-hour price swings, Polymarket forecasts, whale movements, and on-chain data collectively show the market remains under pressure. Short-term traders continue to sell at a loss, while large investors maintain cautious accumulation. Recent data reflects the immediate state of the market; short-term flows and whale activity confirm the trend remains cautious.

Note: This content does not constitute investment advice and is based on recent on-chain data, market trends, and analysis.

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Let’s break down Hayes’ wallet activity, the market impact, and the surrounding information noise.

Hayes’ Wallet Activity and Sale Details

Massive token transfers over the past 15–20 minutes have been interpreted by the market as sales. Movements from Hayes’ known wallets to addresses such as Binance, Wintermute, and FalconX indicate a possible liquidation.

Lookonchain data further clarifies the situation:

Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) is selling DeFi tokens.
In the past 15 minutes, he moved approximately 8.57M $ENA ($1.06), 2.04M $ETHFI ($954K), and 950K $PENDLE ($1.14M) out of his wallet — likely to sell.

Key sales are as follows:

• ENA (Ethena): 8,570,000 tokens at $0.123 per token, total value $1,060,900

• PENDLE: 950,022 tokens at $1.19–$1.20 per token, total value $1,137,350

• ETHFI (Ether.fi): 2,043,142 tokens at $0.466 per token, total value $953,410

These numbers are being interpreted as significant selling pressure by the market.

$10.37 Million Loss Claim

Some reports suggest Hayes suffered a $10.37 million loss, but current verified data indicates a smaller loss. On-chain analyst Yujin reports that Hayes’ total loss on accumulated DeFi tokens since December is approximately $3.15 million.

Therefore, the $10 million figure cannot yet be confirmed without cost-basis and transaction-level verification. Hayes’ own statement reflects the uncertainty:

“I had to take it all back… I promise, I’ll never take profit again.”

While phrased sarcastically, this remark may indicate a reduced risk appetite.

Market Conditions and Strategic Retreat

CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $68,500, with a weekly loss of about 16%. Such market conditions tend to make the movements of large wallets closely scrutinized.

Hayes’ $3.15–$3.48 million sales alone are sufficient to create short-term price pressure. However, without a transparent cost table, any interpretation remains somewhat speculative.

The data relies on Arkham-labeled wallets. Sending crypto to exchanges does not always equate to immediate sales; past actions provide a reference for possible liquidation strategies.

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Bitcoin has dropped 22.5% over the past month, briefly hitting its lowest levels in over a year before rebounding. This move has intensified discussions around market cycles, technical indicators, and on-chain signals. Amid rising uncertainty, many analysts are now focusing on key price areas below $40,000.

What Do Historical Cycles and Fibonacci Suggest?

On February 6, Bitcoin fell to $60,000 before rebounding to $70,354. 10x Research emphasized that although market sentiment and technical indicators were approaching extreme levels, the overall downward trend continues. Historical bear markets show that Bitcoin tends to follow certain mathematical ratios.

Analyst Ardi examined Fibonacci retracement levels linked to past cycle lows. Bitcoin bottomed at the 78.6% Fibonacci level during the 2022 bear market, currently around $39,176. Analyst Nehal highlighted historical drops: 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022. Applying this model to the current cycle suggests a potential bottom around $38,000.

On-chain data also provides insights. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that when prices fall roughly 15% below the average cost for long-term holders, cycle lows typically occur. With the realized price around $40,300, this model suggests a potential bottom near $34,500—though Pillows personally doubts it will drop that low.

On-Chain Signals and the $50,000 Threshold

Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s bottom may already have formed, making a deeper bear market less likely. One analyst noted that past cycle bottoms often occurred just below all-time highs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional involvement are cited as factors that make drops below $50,000 increasingly unlikely:

“Volatility and sharp pullbacks can happen. But structurally, falling below $50,000 would require a breakdown. Institutional infrastructure and large capital are unlikely to allow this.”

Analyst Darkfost added that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has reached levels historically associated with the final stages of bear markets. While this signals potential market reversal zones, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the bear market. Prices could drop further over the next few months, with intermittent rallies along the way, as the risk-reward profile becomes increasingly extreme.

Technical Outlook and Support Levels

Our Coinmühendisi analyst noted that Bitcoin is in a downtrend across all timeframes, with a weekly close below $74,000 confirming a bearish bias. The next major support level is expected around $52,500, and retracements toward this zone should be considered normal.

The analyst also highlighted the possibility of market manipulation. Following the weekly confirmation, some traders may continue short positions. However, a break above this level could trigger upward momentum. Short-term rallies are inevitable, but weekly confirmation and trend structure should not be ignored.

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The pullback unfolded while prices were already under pressure. ERC-20 stablecoin supply fell from around $162 billion to $155 billion, marking the first sharp weekly contraction during the current market cycle. This was not a routine fluctuation. It reflected a broader hesitation to keep capital deployed on-chain.

Liquidity Leaves as Exchanges Grow Lighter

When stablecoin supply shrinks, the implication is usually straightforward. Capital is moving back into fiat. Issuers respond by burning excess tokens, and the market loses part of its immediate liquidity cushion. As that cushion thins, price moves tend to rely more on gaps than on demand.

Exchange data reinforced the picture. Binance recorded over $6 billion in net outflows across major assets during the same week. Bitcoin accounted for nearly $2 billion, Ethereum roughly $1.3 billion, and ERC-20 USDT more than $3 billion. In practical terms, this looked less like internal rotation and more like capital stepping aside.

Not all stablecoin flows pointed in the same direction. USDT on the Tron network saw inflows of about $900 million, suggesting that some investors were repositioning rather than fully exiting. Still, the broader signal leaned defensive rather than constructive.

Risk Assets and Stablecoins Retreat Together

Periods when both risk assets and stablecoins leave exchanges rarely produce clear price direction. Instead, they tend to coincide with higher volatility and weaker conviction. For now, the data suggests that buyers are cautious and liquidity is no longer doing the heavy lifting.

Bitcoin slipped below $88,000 during the same window, pushing weekly losses beyond 5%. The decline mattered less than what accompanied it. As prices softened, stablecoin supply failed to expand, reducing the likelihood of aggressive dip-buying.

Macro Liquidity Adds to the Strain

The pressure was not limited to crypto-native flows. Binance’s USDT reserves dropped from about $9.2 billion in early January to $4.6 billion by the 24th. At the same time, Bitcoin inflows picked up, a pattern more consistent with profit-taking than renewed risk appetite.

Beyond crypto, system-wide liquidity tightened as well. U.S. Federal Reserve net liquidity declined by roughly $90 billion over several days, driven by shifts in Treasury and reverse repo balances. Historically, such contractions have weighed on risk assets, digital currencies included.

Why It Matters

Stablecoins function as the crypto market’s working capital. Their presence is often invisible, but their absence is felt quickly. When supply contracts, recoveries tend to stall and rallies struggle to sustain momentum.

Longer-term narratives around stablecoins as global payment infrastructure remain intact. In the near term, however, on-chain data paints a different picture. Capital is pulling back, liquidity support is fading, and the market is being forced to move without its usual buffer.

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This picture is supported not only by price movements but also by the flow of realized profits and losses. Particularly, losses accumulated since the end of December align with early bear market behaviors observed in previous cycles.

Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?

According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, Bitcoin holders have realized net losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December 23. This marks the first 30-day period in which network participants posted net losses. For the first time since October 2023, investors moved from profits to selling at a loss. In other words, holders closed positions at prices lower than their purchase.

However, this shift did not happen overnight. On-chain data shows that realized profits have gradually declined since March 2024. As price momentum weakened, the bull phase ended, and holders began realizing lower profits.

The critical point is that profits are falling even while prices remain relatively high, signaling a structural shift in investor behavior.

Crypto Market “Extreme Fear”: Bitcoin Under Pressure

Dangerous Similarities With the 2021–2022 Cycle

Analysts highlight that the current structure bears striking resemblance to the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition. Back then, net realized profits peaked in January 2021, followed by lower local tops in February and November. The network then entered a net loss phase.

Notably, investors realized lower net profits at higher prices, indicating that the market could no longer absorb gains and had entered a distribution phase.

Today’s pattern is following a similar trajectory. Net realized profits peaked in January 2024, then fell to lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, margins have turned fully negative.

Early Bear Market Signals

Looking deeper at the data, Bitcoin’s annual net realized profits dropped from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today, a level last seen in March 2024. More importantly, this pace and level of decline nearly mirrors the start of the last bear market in March 2022.

Even more striking is the net loss behavior. Current loss patterns almost exactly replicate the first bear phase in March 2022, when price momentum had already weakened and the market was sustained by “correction” narratives. On-chain data, however, had already signaled danger well in advance.

A similar investor sentiment gap is forming today.

Why Is Demand Not Reacting?

CryptoQuant and other on-chain sources indicate no significant demand increase from ETFs or spot markets. Even though short-lived improvements occurred, total demand has contracted again over the past 30 days.

This suggests a lack of natural buyers to push prices higher. Rising realized losses imply that investors are increasingly moving toward exits rather than waiting.

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At the same time, weakening global risk appetite, sharp geopolitical signals, and deteriorating on-chain behavior have converged. This overlap has notably reduced short-term investors’ willingness to add exposure, tightening market reflexes across the board.

Charts Are Telling Different Stories

Veteran trader Peter Brandt argues that a pattern historically associated with sharp sell-offs is re-emerging on Bitcoin’s daily chart. According to Brandt, the $58,000–$62,000 range represents a technically significant zone that cannot be ignored. This area also sits just above realized price levels and the 200-week moving average, reinforcing its importance.

Other analysts echo a similar view on lower timeframes, pointing to a clear bear flag breakdown on the four-hour chart. Within this structure, the $90,400 level stands out as a critical support. A decisive move below it could accelerate downside pressure. That said, the market is not fully aligned; opposing voices remind that such patterns often fail during periods of elevated volatility.

CryptoQuant data adds another layer to the concern. For the first time in roughly 15 months, Bitcoin investors have shifted into a “realized net loss” position. In other words, the conversation is no longer about profit-taking, but about panic-driven exits and loss realization.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Warning Signs

Behind the price action, the signals grow more uncomfortable. Bitcoin’s 30-day Realized Net Profit/Loss metric has dropped into negative territory for the first time since October 2023. This confirms that sellers are locking in losses rather than gains.

Short-term holders and large wallets appear to be trimming exposure after BTC failed to sustain levels above $97,000. Recent rebound attempts have been fueled largely by derivatives-driven short liquidations, not by consistent spot demand. This dynamic raises doubts about the durability of any near-term recovery.

Why does this matter? Because once realized losses resurface, market psychology becomes fragile. In such phases, price behavior is often dictated less by technical levels and more by investor sentiment and reflexive selling.

Whales Begin to Shift Positioning

On-chain monitoring platforms indicate that some large players have started opening fresh short positions. One notable whale, previously known for aggressive long exposure, has fully exited BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE positions, crystallizing multi-million-dollar losses in the process.

While individual moves do not define trend direction, they do highlight a growing defensive posture at the top end of the market. In periods of thinning liquidity, these shifts can exert outsized influence on price dynamics.

Consolidation or a Deeper Test Ahead?

Not all data points to an outright collapse. Certain on-chain assessments suggest Bitcoin is losing momentum in the low-$90,000 range but remains above neutral territory. From this perspective, the market may be entering a time-buying consolidation rather than an immediate breakdown.

Options traders continue to price in elevated uncertainty, while spot and futures indicators show pockets of cautious optimism. ETF inflows, meanwhile, imply that institutional interest has not vanished entirely.

Still, metrics tracking new investors reveal that short-term holders have remained in unrealized loss territory since November 2025. This leaves the door open to renewed panic selling if prices slip further.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $90,800 and $93,300. How this range resolves in the coming days will determine whether the $62,000 scenario remains a fear-driven headline or evolves into a genuine roadmap. For now, the market has yet to make its choice.

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At first glance, the concentration appears extreme. Nearly half of all ETH sits behind a single contract. But this balance is not a discretionary wallet. It is the foundation of Ethereum’s security model, holding ETH that validators have deliberately locked to secure the network through staking.

Why This Is Not a Whale Wallet

Market intelligence platform Santiment highlighted the milestone over the weekend, noting that the deposit contract is often misunderstood as a potential “whale wallet.” The concern resurfaces periodically on social media, especially during volatile price periods.

In practice, the contract cannot move funds freely, nor can it send ETH directly to exchanges. The Ethereum held there is bound by protocol rules that prioritize network stability over liquidity speed.

Exits Are Designed to Be Slow by Default

Ethereum’s architecture is built to prevent sudden exits. Validator withdrawals are strictly rate-limited at the protocol level. According to ValidatorQueue data, exits are capped at 256 ETH per epoch, translating to roughly 57,600 ETH per day under optimal conditions.

Validators requesting to exit must also wait in a queue, which can stretch into weeks during periods of heavy demand. As of early January 2026, only 288 ETH is waiting to be withdrawn, implying an average delay of roughly seven minutes. The system currently favors inflows, not exits.

Security Over Speed, Even During Stress

This staged withdrawal mechanism acts as a stabilizer. It reduces the risk of validators flooding exchanges during market stress and helps preserve network security during transitional phases.

The design choice is deliberate. Ethereum trades faster exits for resilience, especially when price volatility accelerates.

Staking Participation Keeps Rising Despite Price Pressure

Why this matters becomes clearer when staking participation is examined more closely. Actively staked ETH has reached a record 35.9 million tokens, accounting for 29.6% of circulating supply.

At the same time, the entry queue continues to grow. Roughly 1.32 million ETH is currently waiting to be staked, comfortably outpacing exit demand. This persistence stands out given that ETH still trades roughly 30% below its August 2024 highs near $4,000.

Institutional Weight Is Becoming Harder to Ignore

Institutional involvement is quietly reinforcing the trend. Firms such as BitMine have staked more than 342,000 ETH in recent weeks, while large asset managers are embedding staking into exchange-traded products.

As validator participation scales, influence naturally concentrates. This dynamic keeps decentralization debates alive, even as network security metrics improve.

Where the Market Still Disagrees

Bullish observers interpret the locked supply as a sign of long-term trust. Nearly half of ETH is effectively removed from immediate circulation by participants willing to accept delayed liquidity.

Skeptics focus on a different risk. In the event of a sharp and sustained price decline, a surge in validator exit requests could extend withdrawal queues and delay ETH’s return to liquid markets. Protocol limits soften this risk, but they do not eliminate it.

For now, the data suggests patience rather than panic. Ethereum’s staking contract continues to grow, not drain.

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Weekly NFT sales climbed from $65.58 million to $88.29 million. This rise was not limited to volume alone. The number of buyers increased by %22.90 to 342,044, while sellers grew by %24.17 to 242,004. Total transactions also expanded by %10.54, reaching 937,495. The data suggests a broader participation recovery rather than isolated activity.

As Capital Shifts Toward Bitcoin, Market Balance Changes

The most striking development of the week was Bitcoin overtaking Ethereum in NFT sales volume. Bitcoin-based NFT transactions reached $29.95 million, marking a sharp %144.41 increase week over week. Buyer participation on the network also rose by %25.29, indicating that the move was not driven by a single outlier alone.

Ethereum continued to grow, with sales volume rising by %39.08 to $27.57 million. However, this increase lagged behind Bitcoin’s acceleration. From a timing perspective, the divergence points to a short-term shift in risk preference among NFT participants.

$X@AI BRC-20 NFTs Redefined the Weekly Narrative

Bitcoin-based $X@AI BRC-20 NFTs became the dominant force behind the surge. The collection generated $23.14 million in weekly sales, reflecting an extraordinary %1,099.81 increase. Yet this figure masks a highly concentrated structure.

Only 12 transactions occurred, involving 12 buyers and 12 sellers. A single sale worth $17.13 million, completed four days ago, stood out as the largest NFT transaction of the week. This concentration raises questions about whether the spike reflects sustainable demand or a temporary liquidity event.

Established Collections Hold Ground but Lose Momentum

DMarket on the Mythos chain ranked second with $6.04 million in volume. Despite strong buyer and transaction counts, its growth pace remained limited. On BNB Chain, YES BOND climbed to $2.72 million, securing a top-three position, though activity was driven by just two sellers.

Ethereum-based CryptoPunks recorded $2.69 million in sales, while Pudgy Penguins returned to the top five with a %52 increase. In contrast, Polygon’s Courtyard collection fell sharply, posting a %56 decline and losing momentum.

Why It Matters

At first glance, the weekly jump suggests a renewed NFT market recovery. However, the distribution of activity tells a more cautious story. Bitcoin’s dominance was largely fueled by a small number of high-value trades, pointing to selective capital deployment rather than a broad-based bull phase.

Whether this concentration evolves into sustained demand or fades as a short-lived spike will become clearer in the coming weeks. For now, volume has risen—but the market’s true direction remains unresolved.

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