Today, February 27, 2026, approximately 115,500 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, with a notional value around $7.8 billion. This is unusually large due to the month-end close. Spot markets may see movement, but panic is unlikely.

What Are Options? Explained with Crypto

Options give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price in the future.

For example, Bitcoin is currently $67,000. You buy an option saying, “I want the right to purchase Bitcoin at $70,000 in one month,” paying a small premium for this right.

Scenario A (Price rises): Bitcoin reaches $75,000. You exercise your option and buy at $70,000, making a profit.

Scenario B (Price falls): Bitcoin drops to $65,000. You don’t exercise the option. You only lose the premium, avoiding a higher purchase price.

• Call option: Right to buy BTC or ETH at a set price.

• Put option: Right to sell BTC or ETH at a set price.

This mechanism helps investors hedge against price swings and allows analysts to gauge market risk and volatility.

Bitcoin Options

Bitcoin’s put/call ratio is 0.76, meaning more call contracts than puts. Coinglass reports a max pain level near $75,000, indicating many contracts may expire worthless.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated at $60,000 with $1.5B and $50,000 with $1.1B on Deribit. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges reached $37B this month. Deribit analysts note, “In the current downtrend, protective and bearish strategies are expected.”

According to Greeks Live, call OI dominates, and Bitcoin carries the largest notional weight into expiry. Options expiring account for about 20% of total OI, with BTC nearing a multi-year high share.

$9 Billion Expiry – How Will Bitcoin React?

BTC is trading well below the $75,000 max pain level. As a result, market makers may apply upward pressure on spot prices to reduce losses. However, the lack of fresh capital and continued bearish sentiment suggest that even after expiry, volatility may decrease while prices remain suppressed around $67,000.

Ethereum Options

Ethereum also faces significant expiry, with 477,000 contracts worth $963M. Max pain is $2,200, and the put/call ratio is 0.77. Total ETH OI across exchanges is around $6.6B, bringing the total crypto options expiry to roughly $9B.

Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $8.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: ~$7.8B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K $ETH: ~$961M notional | Put/Call: 0.77 | Max Pain: $2,200

Call OI dominates across both assets, with BTC carrying… pic.twitter.com/5r8MjeQtJ9

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 26, 2026

Spot Market Outlook

Currently, markets are red. Total capitalization has dropped below $2.4 trillion. Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,000, dipping to $67,000 in early Asian trading. Ethereum hovers around $2,000, with the risk of dropping below.

Bitcoin shows 66,300 call contracts vs. 48,405 puts, and Ethereum 268,642 calls vs. 210,350 puts. Calls dominate in both, which could amplify spot market reactions if hedging flows intensify.

Recently, the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH moved from -30 to around -8/-9, showing reduced demand for panic protection. However, skew remains negative; the market is still in bear mode. Implied volatility rose over the last two days (BTC 47%, ETH 65%), but overall confidence remains low.

Analysts highlight that the crypto market lacks fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, while pessimistic sentiment dominates social media. Spot prices are trading below max pain, indicating limited short-term upside potential.

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Centralized exchanges remained the primary venue for price discovery and risk management across major crypto assets. At the same time, market structure continued to narrow, with liquidity and leverage increasingly concentrated among a small number of dominant platforms. This shift aligns with the partial easing of global liquidity conditions in the second half of the year, which reignited demand for leveraged trading strategies.

Derivatives Trading Concentrated Among Four Major Exchanges

More than 60% of total derivatives volume in 2025 was executed on just four platforms. Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget emerged as the core drivers of liquidity, leverage, and user asset concentration across the market.

Binance alone accounted for $25.09 trillion in annual derivatives volume, representing over 29% of global market share. Behind Binance, second-tier competition remained relatively balanced. OKX, Bybit, and Bitget recorded annual trading volumes ranging between $8.2 trillion and $10.8 trillion, with average daily volumes between $25 billion and $33 billion. Together with Binance, these platforms controlled approximately 62.3% of total market activity.

OKX ranked second with a 12.5% market share, followed by Bybit at 11%, and Bitget at roughly 9.5%.

Why It Matters

This level of concentration indicates that pricing power in the crypto derivatives market is increasingly controlled by a limited number of exchanges. While deeper liquidity benefits large platforms during high-volatility periods, smaller exchanges face a greater risk of price dislocations and thin order books.

High-volume trading days consistently exceeded annual averages throughout the year. On October 10, single-day derivatives volume peaked at approximately $748 billion, far above normal levels. Monthly averages hovered near $200 billion in the first quarter before accelerating in the second half, surpassing $300 billion during July–August and October.

Open Interest Hits Record Highs Before Q4 Shakeout

Open interest (OI) data highlighted the fragility of the market’s high-leverage structure. Aggressive deleveraging in the first quarter pushed total OI down to $87 billion. This was followed by a rapid rebuild in leverage, with OI reaching an all-time high of $235.9 billion in early October.

During the fourth quarter, roughly $70 billion in positions were wiped out. Despite this drawdown, year-end open interest still closed 17% higher than at the start of the year. Binance continued to dominate leverage concentration, holding nearly 28% of daily average OI, while the top five exchanges controlled more than 80% overall.

Liquidity and Custody Power Centralized

Liquidity depth data confirmed that dominance extended beyond raw volume. Binance’s Bitcoin order book depth far exceeded all competitors, while OKX ranked a clear second, particularly for institutional-sized trades.

Custodial concentration proved even more pronounced. Binance held over 72% of total custodial assets, pushing the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to 5,352, a level signaling extreme oligopoly conditions. Other platforms shared a significantly smaller portion of user-held assets.

Liquidations and Systemic Risk Peak in October

Total liquidations in 2025 approached $150 billion, most of which reflected routine market activity. However, systemic stress was heavily concentrated around October 10–11.

Following a major macro shock linked to new U.S. tariffs on China, combined liquidations exceeded $19 billion in a single day. Elevated leverage, crowded long positioning, and strained liquidation mechanisms amplified volatility, particularly across altcoins. While Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced relatively contained drawdowns, many smaller assets suffered sharp collapses.

Outlook

The 2025 data confirms that growth in crypto derivatives continues, but with risk increasingly centralized across a handful of platforms. As liquidity, custody, and leverage concentrate further, the potential for cascading effects during macro or regulatory shocks rises. If this structure persists, 2026 may bring heightened regulatory scrutiny and more frequent platform-level stress testing.

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Bitcoin open positions fall as market reduces risk

Bitcoin open interest has undergone a significant cleansing process amid recent volatility. Futures trading volume has slowed considerably, while liquidations have cleared the market of excessively risky positions. Additionally, traders are reducing leverage, indicating that aggressive appetite in the derivatives market has temporarily diminished. Historically, such periods often preceded strong market bottoms.

“Historically, these cleansing phases have often been essential to forming a solid bottom and setting the stage for a renewed bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closures of overly optimistic positions, and a gradual decline in speculative exposure help rebalance the market.”

Darkfost noted that the last time Bitcoin open interest fell so quickly over 30 days was during the 2022 bear market, highlighting the significance of the current market cleanup.

Why the market entered a cleansing phase

BTC’s pullback is not only a technical correction but also reflects weakening global risk appetite. Slower ETF flows and panic among short-term traders have accelerated this process. On-chain data shows an increase in large wallet movements, suggesting that mid- and long-term investors are viewing the retracement as a buying opportunity. This dynamic could help restore market balance.

Critical price ranges: Where could the rally be triggered?

Bitcoin’s price can quickly shift market sentiment at certain thresholds, laying the groundwork for new trends.

• $88,000–$90,000: Key buying zone
• Above $94,000: Breakout area where momentum strengthens
• $82,000–$84,000: Support band for reactionary purchases

In addition, rising volatility makes volume distribution in these zones increasingly decisive. With derivatives market activity weakening, spot demand may dominate, leading to sharper price reactions.

Could a new Bitcoin rally happen?

Experts believe that the rapid unwinding of open positions indicates the market has shed overheated leverage levels. If spot buyers regain strength, Bitcoin could quickly gain upward momentum. Furthermore, liquidity accumulated around psychological price levels may accelerate upward moves, allowing BTC to approach key breakout zones again.

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Leveraged Positions Increase Ahead of Fed

Investors are ramping up positions ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, where officials are expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. This anticipation may further fuel gains in digital assets.

• Open interest rose 14% weekly, approaching $40 billion

• Prediction markets price a 92.6% chance of a rate cut

• Spot Bitcoin climbed 7.8% from $107,600 to $116,000

Analysts note that the rally is driven by slowing inflation and expectations of a gradual Fed rate cut. However, increased leverage also raises market volatility risks.

Leverage and Market Risk

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen commented, “Rising leverage signals renewed confidence, but Bitcoin could see a correction toward $108,000 if it fails to hold above $112,000.” Leveraged trades amplify potential gains but also increase liquidation risks during price drops.

Key Risks:

• Rapid liquidations if Bitcoin falls below support levels

• Rising volatility and sudden price corrections

• Increasing speculative risk appetite

Fed Policies and Crypto Market Impact

Data from prediction platform Myriad shows investors strongly pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate cut. Analysts say higher liquidity may boost crypto momentum. Conversely, cautious Fed messaging could trigger short-term volatility.

This activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets tests global liquidity and serves as a barometer of investor confidence. ETF inflows and easing trade tensions continue to support market momentum.

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Glassnode reports show that investors continue to favor high-risk positions despite rising inflation concerns in the U.S. While BTC-ETH open interest is converging, leveraged traders are showing strong preference for ETH. Bitcoin’s spot dominance stands at 59.42%, while Ethereum is at 13.62%. However, in open interest, the gap narrows: Bitcoin holds 56.7%, ETH 43.3%. This indicates Ethereum’s growing prominence among risk-seeking investors. 

ETH’s Market Position and Trading Volume 

The surge in Ethereum’s futures volume reflects strong investor interest in the altcoin sector. Additionally, ETH’s share of perpetual futures hit a record high, proving investors are willing to take more risks. This trend could translate into short-term price performance for Ethereum. 

Glassnode notes that although Bitcoin recently reached all-time highs, Ethereum largely guided market direction. As a result, ETH’s open interest dominance increased, and investors maintained a bullish outlook. Furthermore, Fed decisions on interest rates directly influence ETH’s potential to outperform BTC. If Jerome Powell signals a move toward rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, Ethereum is expected to rise faster. 

In conclusion, ETH’s record open interest in futures demonstrates growing investor attention and hints at a potential altcoin season. Moreover, current market trends position Ethereum as a key focus for crypto traders in the near term. 

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Sharp Decline in Binance Open Interest 

Binance’s Open Interest (OI) data clearly shows the shift in market sentiment. As Bitcoin dropped from $124,000 to $118,000, Open Interest on Binance fell by nearly 5%. This sharp decline indicates that traders either exited the market or closed their positions. In uncertain conditions, investors tend to remain cautious. Such declines often occur after significant price moves, highlighting that market participants are steering away from risk. 

Additionally, Binance’s cumulative net taker volume decreased by $1.89 billion. This sharp decline signals the presence of strong selling pressure. Historically, similar drops have coincided with short-term market bottoms. This suggests that the selling pressure might have peaked, potentially signaling a dip-buying opportunity. 

Binance’s Cumulative Net Taker Volume Hits Rock Bottom 

The latest data indicates that late long positions were largely closed. Traders who opened longs just before Bitcoin peaked are now exiting at a loss. This directly contributes to the drop in Open Interest and net taker volume, reflecting a “long squeeze” in the market. A long squeeze happens when falling prices trigger the liquidation of leveraged long positions, creating a domino effect that accelerates the decline. 

Liquidation analysis confirms this scenario. Net liquidations surged by $130 million within just 8 hours, showing mass long wipeouts. Meanwhile, Binance’s funding rate dropped to 0.006. Low funding rates signal weakened bullish appetite in leveraged positions, paving the way for liquidation cascades. Ultimately, all this data suggests a market reset, with overly leveraged positions being flushed out. 

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A Jump Triggered by Whale Activity

A high-volume purchase on August 9 had an immediate impact on price. A single whale wallet bought approximately 5 million dollars’ worth of PEPE, pushing the price up by 9.5 percent in one day to 0,0000123 dollars.

You may also find this article interesting: Two Lenses on Crypto This Week | Caution and Hope

Ethereum’s Strength Flows Into PEPE

Another factor behind the rise was the strong performance on the Ethereum front. Thanks to institutional interest and growing demand, ETH climbed back above the 4,000-dollar level after eight months. This activity in Ethereum positively reflected on memecoins in its ecosystem, supporting PEPE’s momentum.

The picture is also striking in the derivatives market. Futures data shows open interest reached 720 million dollars, hitting the highest level of August. The continuation of positive funding rates indicates that investors believe prices could move higher in the near term.

The technical outlook supports this advance. The rising trendline maintained since March remains intact. Price continues to hold above the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day moving average. Among analysts’ short-term targets is the 0,000014-dollar level, and if this threshold is surpassed, the year-to-date high of 0,00001625 dollars is likely to be retested.

Given the inherently high volatility of memecoins, investors should act with caution. Even so, the current data set points to a landscape where whale interest persists, the technical trend remains unbroken, and the market tailwind generated by Ethereum creates a positive near-term backdrop for PEPE.

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Trade Talks and Futures Fuel the Rally 

The rally was supported by positive sentiment surrounding ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China in London. Expectations of reduced tariffs hold the potential to ease global trade tensions. Such developments boost capital flows into riskier assets, positively impacting assets like Bitcoin. A 90-day temporary trade agreement between the U.S. and China in May similarly drove BTC prices upward. 

On the other hand, markets are not anticipating a rate cut at the FOMC meeting on June 18. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is 99.9%. Therefore, the likelihood of a rate cut is largely dismissed. Positive trade outcomes could offset inflation pressures from upcoming CPI data, potentially reducing concerns about tighter Fed policies impacting crypto markets. 

Futures Market Sees Strong Interest: Open Interest Hits Record High 

Bitcoin’s climb past $110,000 was driven by growing investor interest in the futures market. According to CoinGlass data, total open interest (OI) reached $77 billion on June 10, marking the highest level in the past two weeks. This increase highlights strong demand for long BTC positions. 

Over the past 24 hours, BTC open interest surged by 8%, signaling a shift toward leveraged trading. On the same day, the CME Bitcoin futures market hit a record with 151,915 BTC in open interest, valued at $16.6 billion. Derivatives trading volume also saw significant growth, rising 112% to $114.3 billion in the last 24 hours. This indicates strong market-wide support for the upward momentum. 

Liquidations of short BTC positions further reinforced the price increase. As of June 10, $195 million in short positions were liquidated, while long position liquidations amounted to only $9.3 million. These figures underscore the strong bullish momentum in the market. 

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Following a strong rally in April, BTC price entered its first significant correction phase. The asset fell from its all-time high of approximately $111,970 to below $105,000. This decline was notably influenced by increasing open positions in derivative markets. Bitfinex analysts reported that the liquidation of many long positions pressured prices downward. 

Bitcoin Options Open Interest Signals Rising Volatility

The recent two-week pullback has revealed a notable acceleration in short-term profit-taking in the crypto market. Market participants remain cautious about whether Bitcoin will resume its upward trend. Rising volatility has intensified uncertainties about the market’s direction. 

Moreover, open positions in Bitcoin perpetual futures have also increased rapidly, indicating investors’ preference for actively positioning against price movements. According to Bitfinex analysts, this concentration suggests deeper institutional participation and heightened market sensitivity to volatility. 

Bitfinex analysts stated: 

“The key point here is that the significant increase in derivative activities signals expanding institutional involvement. Coming after Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs, it shows market participants positioning themselves for increased volatility.” 

After the options expiry on May 29, open interest dropped to $39 billion but remains well above historical averages. High open interest especially highlights institutional investors turning to hedging strategies. 

Macro Factors and Profit Taking 

Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and developments in trade policies triggered a broader risk-off sentiment in crypto markets. Pressure on Bitcoin intensified alongside these macro winds, with aggressive profit-taking accelerating the price drop. 

However, the Relative Unrealized Profit metric shows that investors on the network still hold above-average paper profits. This indicates that selling pressure is not yet exhausted and short-term volatility may continue. 

In summary, these data suggest that although the market structure remains strong, short-term turbulence potential is increasing. The sustainability of demand will be a critical factor in determining the price movement direction. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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• As of May 2025, the Bitcoin options market has reached $42.5 billion in open interest. 

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $110,000 level in May 2025, reaching one of its all-time highs. According to Glassnode data, the “Accumulation Trend Score” metric rose to 1.0. This indicates that investors are in a buying trend. Both large and small wallet groups are accumulating BTC. This metric evaluates purchases within the last 15 days, excluding exchange and miner wallets. 

The rise in Bitcoin’s price is also supported by stablecoin regulations in the U.S. and institutional purchases. For example, MicroStrategy’s $765 million BTC investment shows continued institutional interest. Additionally, global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns are driving investors toward Bitcoin. In May, inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) accelerated. This week, there was over $2.5 billion in fund flows in markets where traders use excessive leverage. This development demonstrates institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin while also providing balance against market volatility. 

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) surpassed $80 billion as of May 23. This represents about a 30% increase since early May. This increase indicates that derivative traders are taking positions with leverage, expecting BTC prices to rise further. 

According to Deribit data, open interest in the Bitcoin options market reached $42.5 billion as of May 22. This is a record high for the options market. The highest open interests are in the call options expiring on June 27 with strike prices of $110,000, $120,000, and $300,000. The upward expectation is clear in the options markets as well. Demand for June call options at $200,000 and $300,000 strike prices is notable. This indicates that traders expect further BTC price increases. 

May Bitcoin options expire on May 30, while June options expire on June 27. On these dates, contracts will close, increasing market volume and price volatility. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE  

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