PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top

PlanB, the analyst known for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, views the recent correction as a natural breather within a larger bull cycle. He highlights that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive months — a sign that the market has transitioned from treating this level as resistance to regarding it as a firm support zone.

Momentum indicators support this idea. With the RSI hovering near 66, Bitcoin is far from the euphoric 80+ readings typically seen at major market tops. Based on his model projections, PlanB suggests that the next major upward phase could lift prices into the $250,000–$500,000 range, assuming Bitcoin continues to diverge from its realized price — a common feature of strong bull markets.

Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming “Stealth QE”

Arthur Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s short-term weakness to contracting U.S. dollar liquidity. Since the summer’s debt ceiling resolution, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has expanded, pulling significant liquidity out of financial markets.

However, Hayes expects this trend to reverse once the government reopens and begins deploying funds more aggressively. This would reduce the TGA balance and inject liquidity back into the system. He argues that the Federal Reserve’s involvement — particularly through the Standing Repo Facility — will amount to balance-sheet expansion without being formally labeled quantitative easing. According to Hayes, this discreet liquidity boost could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin.

Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near

Macro strategist Raoul Pal points to the long-term uptrend in his Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index as evidence that the broader liquidity cycle remains intact. In his view, markets are currently in a “Window of Pain,” marked by tight conditions that challenge investor conviction.

Pal expects a decisive turnaround as U.S. Treasury spending injects an estimated $250–350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening winds down, and interest rate cuts begin. He notes that when global liquidity rises — across the U.S., China, Japan, and elsewhere — risk assets tend to move higher in unison.

Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that major Bitcoin holders — addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — accumulated roughly 29,600 BTC in the past week, an amount valued at about $3 billion. Their combined holdings have climbed to 3.504 million BTC, marking the first significant accumulation wave since September.

What makes this trend more notable is that it occurred during a period of sharp sentiment deterioration among retail investors and $2 billion in ETF outflows. Analysts interpret this divergence as evidence that institutional players are strengthening the support zone around $100,000, positioning for the next macro-driven expansion.

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PlanC: “The Q4 Peak Is a Statistical Misconception”

Crypto analyst PlanC recently criticized the idea that Bitcoin must top out in Q4, calling it statistically unsound.

“Assuming Bitcoin is guaranteed to peak at the end of this year goes against basic probability theory,” PlanC explained. He likened the logic to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also land tails. According to him, basing conclusions solely on three previous cycles does not constitute meaningful statistical evidence.

Are Bitcoin Halving Cycles Still Relevant?

PlanC also suggested that the traditional halving cycle model may no longer apply to Bitcoin’s trajectory. He pointed to new dynamics in the market, such as the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the billions of dollars flowing into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is no fundamental reason for a peak in Q4 2025 other than psychological momentum or a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.

Q4: Historically Bitcoin’s Strongest Quarter

Still, history shows that Q4 has often been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged an 85.42% return. But analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. In fact, if the halving cycle remains a factor, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Expert Opinions on Bitcoin

Market experts are far from united on Bitcoin’s year-end outlook:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates there’s a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches between $140,000 and $150,000 this year before a potential bear market in 2026.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes the bull cycle will last longer, stating, “I’d bet 2026 is an up year.”

• On the more bullish side, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) and Joe Burnett (Director of Research at Unchained) have both predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the end of 2025.

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