The platform’s key advantage is speed: while traditional markets close on weekends, anyone with a crypto wallet can trade on regime change, US strikes, or ceasefire dates in real time. Investors are not only betting on whether the conflict escalates but also on weekly end dates, who replaces Khamenei, and whether US ground forces will enter Iran.

Market Movements and Insider Trading Questions

Onchain analysis identified six wallets that correctly predicted the February 28 US strike on Iran, netting about $1.2 million. Most were funded within 24 hours of the attack, bought “yes” shares on the specific date, and profited hours before the military operation. The largest wallet turned $61,000 into $493,000, while another gained $120,000 from $30,000.

Ceasefire markets price short-term resolutions: March 2 at 4%, March 6 at 15%, March 31 at 61%, and April 30 at 78%. “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” trades at 54%, up from the low-20s for months. Ground invasion contracts also show significant volume: “Will the US enter Iran before 2027?” at 19% with $207,000, and “US forces enter Iran by March 7?” at 28% with $2 million.

Trader stories highlight market intensity: “Curseaaaaaaa” earned $757,000 on Khamenei’s death contract. Four other traders made six-figure profits. Prices hovered 25–50% in Jan–Feb, then jumped to 100% after confirmation.

Polymarket’s Difference and Future Outlook

The largest resolved contract was Khamenei’s death, which resolved at 100%. The US strike contract reached $529 million, making it the largest in the “World” and “Geopolitics” categories and fourth in overall politics behind 2024 Trump election contracts.

Polymarket provides speed traditional markets cannot: weekend trading, real-time crowd pricing, and immediate settlement. US-Iran bets saw record weekly volumes, traders price both regime change and strike timing. Bitcoin’s $68,000 jump reflects parallel short-term expectations.

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Why Axiom Is Facing Insider Trading Allegations

Axiom, founded in 2024 by Mist and Cal and part of Y Combinator’s Winter 2025 batch, quickly became one of the most profitable crypto trading platforms. According to ZachXBT, the company has generated over $390 million in revenue. Internal access controls, however, were reportedly unusually lax. Employees could view extensive wallet and transaction data via internal dashboards (a serious issue for any trading platform).

Broox, a senior business development employee based in New York, is highlighted in the report. According to ZachXBT, Broox could track users by referral code, wallet address, or user ID. Records reportedly show him saying, “I’m tracking certain addresses, moving completely unnoticed.” Screenshots from internal dashboards were shared with colleagues and confirmed by multiple users. Broox and associates allegedly discussed plans to help another Axiom team member profit $200,000 by abusing internal tools. ZachXBT identified Broox’s primary wallet and linked addresses but noted confirming specific insider trades would require access to Axiom’s internal logs.

What are the Axiom insider trading allegations?

Axiom employees allegedly used internal customer support dashboards to secretly monitor crypto influencers’ wallets and share this data for potential trading profits. The company acknowledged misuse of internal access tools and launched an internal investigation.

1/ Meet @WheresBroox (Broox Bauer), one of the multiple @AxiomExchange employees allegedly abusing the lack of access controls for internal tools to lookup sensitive user details to insider trade by tracking private wallet activity since early 2025. pic.twitter.com/KwICQMJL1q

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) February 26, 2026

Statements from Axiom Management

The company responded: “We were surprised and disappointed to learn that someone on our team misused internal support tools to query user wallets. We have removed access to these tools and will continue the investigation, holding responsible parties accountable.” They added, “This does not represent us as a team; we have always prioritized users. We will provide updates via our Twitter account as we learn more.”

ZachXBT contacted Axiom before publishing and noted the lax internal access controls, allowing employees to view extensive wallet and transaction data. Considering the employees’ location, the case may fall under U.S. jurisdiction.

Polymarket Bets and Legal Implications

The investigation sparked intense speculation on prediction markets after ZachXBT teased the probe earlier in the week. A Polymarket contract titled “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” saw roughly $27.6 million in trading volume prior to publication. Investors placed bets on Axiom, Meteora, Pump.fun, and several other companies.

Onchain analysts observed unusual trading activity. Lookonchain reported that one anonymous trader wagered over $50,000 on Axiom being named while odds were low, closing the position for a $39,000 profit in a single day. This raises potential legal and regulatory considerations in the U.S., adding further scrutiny to the case.

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