According to Kalshi, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have jumped to 61%, nearly double from March 20. The platform defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, using official data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Similarly, traders on Polymarket now price the probability of a 2025 US recession at around 60%.

Market Chaos and Recession Fears

Trump’s move sparked a sharp sell-off in capital markets, wiping over $5 trillion in shareholder value within days. Market analysts now warn of a prolonged bear market affecting global markets and depressing prices across risk assets — including cryptocurrencies.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Despite this, Trump insists the tariffs will ultimately benefit the US economy. On April 3, he said, “The markets are going to boom,” describing the sell-off as an expected part of the process.

Rates Under Pressure

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano speculated that Trump may be intentionally crashing the markets to influence interest rates. He pointed to the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields from 4.66% in January to 4.00% on April 5.

In an April 4 Truth Social post, Trump called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to take action: “This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.”

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Kalshi Predicts Over 61% Chance of US Recession in 2025! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

“This shouldn’t be a surprise — as the price of Bitcoin rises, some percentage of holders are willing to sell their assets to take profit off the table,” Pompliano wrote.

Pompliano Argues BTC Sell-Off Signals A Bull Market Kick-Off

“A small percentage of bitcoin (< 5%) that was previously dormant is now on the move,” he added. “The 60% year-to-date increase in price, and the 140% increase over the last 12-months, has convinced some holders to part with their Bitcoin.”

The data shows that Bitcoin holders “began to sell their Bitcoin as the bull market got kicked off” in 2013, 2017, and 2019, respectively, with the selling of Bitcoin continuing to “accelerate” as the market prices increased over time.

“So a big takeaway from this metric is that the bull market has definitely begun,” Pompliano claimed.

Determining The Clearing Price

Pompliano’s predictions follow a brief drop in BTC’s price over the weekend, dipping to $65,000 after reaching its all-time high of over $73,000 last week.

Despite the recent sell-off, a majority of Bitcoin holders are hanging onto their investment ahead of April’s quadrennial halving event, which could see the token’s price increase much more.

“They either sold because they needed to or they felt that the current offering price was more than sufficient,” Pompliano reported. “Most of the Bitcoin holders, especially those who have been holding for at least 1 year, are not yet convinced that Bitcoin’s price is high enough to part with their digital currency.”

“Just as in past cycles, this will change in the coming months or years,” he continued. “But in order to find out where that clearing price is, Bitcoin’s price will have to continue to appreciate.”

A Significant Year For BTC’s Value

In a Monday note to clients, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, raised his prediction of Bitcoin’s year-end value from $100,000 to $150,000. Moreover, Kendrick claimed that the cryptocurrency could reach a cycle high of $250,000 next year.

Similarly, CoinShares reported on Monday that spot Bitcoin ETFs reached record inflows totaling $2.9 billion this week, surpassing last week’s record of $2.7 billion. The latest data brings the investment vehicle’s year-to-date total inflows to an estimated $13.2 billion, with the U.S. receiving $2.95 billion in inflows alone.

How soon Bitcoin will return to its high of $73,000 last week is unclear, but market attitudes seems to be bullish.

At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $67,000.

Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube  and Twitter for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Sell-Off by Long-Term Holders Seen as Bullish Sign, Pompliano Says appeared first on Coin Engineer.