At the same time, rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions are raising new concerns about inflation. These developments are not only important for traditional markets but could also have a significant impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

A Busy Interest Rate Calendar Awaits Markets

The upcoming economic calendar is filled with key policy announcements that may shape the near-term outlook for global markets. The schedule is expected to unfold as follows:

• March 17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

• March 18: Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed)

• March 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB)

With several major monetary authorities delivering decisions within just a few days, investors are preparing for potential volatility across global financial markets.

Rising Oil Prices Are Reviving Inflation Concerns

One of the main factors forcing investors to rethink their interest rate expectations is the recent surge in energy prices.

The conflict that began on February 28, following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, has expanded through retaliatory actions across the region. These developments have disrupted energy shipments in parts of the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher.

The increase in energy costs has raised fears that global inflation could accelerate again, complicating the policy outlook for central banks.

If energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may need to delay planned rate cuts or maintain a more cautious stance toward monetary easing.

Rate Cut Expectations Are Being Reconsidered

Until recently, many market participants expected central banks—led by the Federal Reserve—to begin gradually lowering interest rates throughout 2026.

This expectation was partly supported by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence technologies, which some analysts believe could increase productivity and exert disinflationary pressure on the economy. A lower-rate environment typically provides strong support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

However, the recent spike in oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have introduced new uncertainty into that outlook. If rising energy costs push inflation higher, central banks could adopt a more hawkish policy stance.

Hawkish Signals Could Pressure Bitcoin

Any indication that policymakers may keep interest rates higher for longer could create turbulence in financial markets. Higher borrowing costs often reduce investor appetite for risk assets, which may lead to downward pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, if central banks maintain a wait-and-see approach or signal that inflation risks remain manageable, risk assets could regain upward momentum.

How the Fed Typically Reacts to Oil Shocks

Economist and Fed watcher Ethan Harris notes that central banks tend to react cautiously when oil prices spike.

According to Harris, this hesitation stems from two key factors. First, oil shocks tend to slow economic growth while simultaneously increasing inflation, making it difficult for policymakers to determine which risk is more pressing.

Second, many oil price shocks prove to be temporary. As a result, central banks often avoid adjusting interest rates immediately to prevent the need for rapid policy reversals shortly afterward.

Fed and BOJ Decisions May Be Most Influential for Bitcoin

Historically, the Federal Reserve has had the strongest influence on Bitcoin’s price dynamics due to its impact on global liquidity conditions.

The Bank of Japan can also play an important role at times, particularly because of Japan’s position in global capital flows.

With rising energy costs already placing pressure on Japan’s economy, the upcoming BOJ policy decision could attract significant attention from both domestic investors and global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.

Markets are Preparing For Interest Rate Decisions

The upcoming round of central bank announcements is expected to provide important insights into the direction of global monetary policy. The way policymakers respond to rising energy prices and inflation risks may shape financial market trends in the weeks ahead.

For this reason, investors are closely monitoring next week’s decisions, as signals from central banks could influence not only traditional assets but also the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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Recent increases in geopolitical risks and their potential impact on inflation are causing expectations about monetary policy to be reconsidered.

Inflation Concerns Back on the Agenda! Rate Cut Cancelled?

Ongoing conflicts between the US and Iran have reignited discussions about inflation risks in global markets. Possible effects on energy prices and global supply chains are strengthening concerns that price pressures could increase.

These developments may lead the FED to adopt a more cautious stance on interest rate policy. Analysts note that if geopolitical risks create upward pressure on inflation, monetary policy could remain tighter.

JPMorgan: The Rate Cut Cycle May Have Ended

According to a report in South Korea-based Maeil Business Newspaper, JPMorgan has updated its expectations regarding the FED’s interest rate policy. Based on evaluations included in a report published by the New York office of the Bank of Korea, the bank believes that the US rate-cutting cycle may have ended in December.

JPMorgan had previously raised the possibility of limited rate cuts in 2026. However, following recent developments, the bank now states that it does not expect any rate cuts this year.

Interest Rates Expected to Remain Unchanged

According to the new projection shared by the bank, the FED’s policy rate is expected to remain steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range throughout 2026. JPMorgan believes there is a possibility that inflation will remain above the FED’s target level in the foreseeable future.

For this reason, a rapid easing of monetary policy is not anticipated. On the contrary, if inflation remains persistently high, a different policy path could come into focus.

Rate Hike Scenario for 2027

Another striking point in JPMorgan’s assessment is the potential for a future rate increase. The bank forecasts that the FED’s next move could be a rate hike in 2027, potentially pushing the policy rate back up to the 4% level.

This scenario indicates that a prolonged tight policy stance could continue.

Differing Expectations in the Market

Meanwhile, there are also varying views in financial markets regarding the FED’s interest rate path. While institutions such as Citi and TD Cowen expect three rate cuts this year, Barclays, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and Wells Fargo forecast two rate cuts. Deutsche Bank believes there could be only a single rate cut during the year.

These differing forecasts show that uncertainties in the global economy and the inflation outlook remain contentious in terms of their impact on monetary policy. Data and economic indicators to be released by the FED in the coming period will play a critical role in determining the direction of interest rate policy.

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Geopolitical Shock, Swift Stabilization

Over the weekend, headlines from the Middle East briefly pushed Bitcoin toward the lower boundary of $60,000. However, the move proved short-lived. Buyers stepped in quickly, returning price action to its recent consolidation zone. Ethereum and several major altcoins mirrored this pattern, reflecting a broader stabilization across digital assets.

According to QCP Capital, approximately $300 million in long positions were liquidated during the initial decline. Despite this flush, the deleveraging event was relatively modest compared to the more disorderly episodes seen earlier in the year and at the start of 2025. This suggests that market participants had already reduced leverage ahead of the latest bout of volatility.

“Sell the News” Dynamics in Derivatives

In derivatives markets, a familiar “sell the news” pattern appeared to unfold. Laser Digital noted that U.S. equities rebounded from intraday lows, while both the dollar and oil retraced their initial spikes. Bitcoin followed a similar trajectory, recovering much of its early losses. The absence of a sustained disruption to energy supply chains appears to have limited broader macroeconomic fallout.

Short-term implied volatility in crypto options rose alongside the news flow, yet the broader volatility structure struggled to maintain elevated levels. QCP Capital also observed continued upside positioning into late March, with some investors anticipating a rebound after a weak monthly performance.

Fed Uncertainty and Inflation Risks

XS.com Senior Market Analyst Linh Tran stated that Bitcoin has been trading cautiously within the $66,000–$67,000 range. Investors are reassessing how quickly the Federal Reserve might move toward rate cuts, keeping the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets elevated.

Meanwhile, 21Shares Macro Strategy Director Stephen Coltman highlighted that wars have historically been inflationary, driving commodity prices higher and widening fiscal deficits. While risk assets may initially fluctuate, the longer-term interest rate outlook could become more complex.

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Market Pricing Signals a Pause

Current market-based expectations suggest that investors overwhelmingly anticipate no change in policy rates this month. According to pricing data from prediction platforms, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged stands at 96%. This near-consensus view indicates that market participants see little immediate justification for a shift in monetary policy.

The strong bias toward a pause reflects broader uncertainty around inflation trends and economic resilience. Rather than positioning for an imminent easing cycle, investors appear to be bracing for continuity.

Rate Cut and Hike Scenarios

While a hold is the dominant expectation, alternative outcomes are still being priced in—albeit at very low probabilities. A 50 basis point or larger rate cut is currently assigned just a 1% likelihood. Meanwhile, a more modest 25 basis point reduction carries a 2% implied probability.

On the tightening side, the outlook is similarly muted. The chance of a 25 basis point or greater rate hike is also estimated at 1%. In other words, markets see very limited risk of a surprise move in either direction at this meeting.

Fed Officials Emphasize Inflation Progress

Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials reinforce the cautious stance reflected in market pricing. Voting member Austan Goolsbee has stated that it would be premature to lower interest rates without clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving lower.

In prepared remarks dated February 24 for the National Association for Business Economics annual conference, Goolsbee indicated that additional rate cuts later this year could be possible—provided there is concrete and sustained progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Taken together, current pricing and central bank commentary point to a high likelihood that rates will remain unchanged in March. Going forward, incoming inflation data and broader economic indicators will play a decisive role in shaping the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead.

This content is not investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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Fed: Keep Interest Rates Unchanged, But the Door is Open

Nearly all participants supported the decision to leave rates steady at the January meeting. This consensus underscores the Fed’s preference to maintain its current stance while assessing incoming economic data.

However, the minutes also indicate that some officials believe additional rate cuts could become appropriate if inflation continues to decline in line with expectations. This suggests that the door to policy easing remains open, contingent on further progress in price stability.

At the same time, a few participants signaled that rate hikes could be warranted if inflation proves more persistent than anticipated. These members supported maintaining two-sided guidance for future rate decisions, reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent and flexible approach.

Inflation Path: Slower and Less Predictable?

A key takeaway from the minutes is the concern that inflation’s journey back to the 2% target may be slower and more uneven than previously expected. Many participants warned that the risk of inflation remaining above target for an extended period remains significant.

Updated internal projections reflect a somewhat stronger outlook for economic activity compared to December. Even so, inflation forecasts were revised slightly higher. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to gradually decline beginning in 2026, pointing to resilience in the labor market over the medium term.

Labor Market Stability and Growth Outlook

The labor market continues to show signs of stabilization. Most participants agreed that downside risks to employment conditions have diminished. With appropriate monetary policy, officials expect the labor market to stabilize this year and gradually improve thereafter.

Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, according to the discussion. Growth is projected to remain robust through 2026, suggesting that the broader economy retains forward momentum despite elevated interest rates.

In summary, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is maintaining a cautious posture. While rates remain on hold, policymakers are prepared to adjust in either direction depending on inflation dynamics and economic performance. Upcoming data releases will play a critical role in shaping the next phase of monetary policy.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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Hawkish Fed Expectations Pressure Prices

The recent decline in gold prices has been largely driven by speculation surrounding the future leadership of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Markets have grown increasingly cautious following signals that a more hawkish figure could be appointed to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Reports suggesting that former Fed official Kevin Warsh may be considered for the role have reignited expectations of tighter monetary policy. This scenario has strengthened the U.S. dollar in the short term, creating headwinds for gold, which typically struggles when yields and the dollar move higher.

Gold: Record Highs Followed by a Rapid Correction

Spot gold experienced a sharp intraday sell-off, falling more than 5% at its worst before stabilizing around $5,177 per ounce, marking a decline of roughly 3.5%. The move came just one day after gold reached an all-time high near $5,594, underscoring the speed at which sentiment shifted.

Futures markets reflected a similar trend. February gold contracts in the U.S. slipped by approximately 1.8%, trading near $5,225 per ounce as traders adjusted positions amid the changing policy outlook.

Domestic Gold Prices React to Global Moves

The turbulence in global markets was also felt domestically. In Turkey’s Grand Bazaar, gram gold prices hovered around 7,691 Turkish lira, while quarter gold was trading near 12,548 lira. These levels reflect the combined impact of global price movements and currency dynamics.

Strong Monthly Performance Remains Intact

Despite the recent pullback, gold’s broader performance remains notable. The metal has gained more than 20% over the course of January and is on track for its sixth consecutive monthly advance. This rally represents one of the strongest monthly performances seen since 1980, highlighting the resilience of safe-haven demand.

Other Precious Metals Also Retreat

Gold’s decline spilled over into the wider precious metals complex. Silver retreated nearly 4% to around $109 per ounce after recently posting record highs. Platinum fell roughly 3.7%, while palladium dropped about 4%.

Even so, silver continues to stand out on a monthly basis, maintaining an exceptional rally despite the short-term correction.

Outlook

Analysts note that uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term. However, as long as global economic and geopolitical risks persist, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver is expected to remain structurally strong.

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The Fed’s Core Message: Patience and Data First

The prevailing interpretation of the latest decision is that the Fed wants to observe the full impact of the three rate cuts implemented previously. Inflation has moderated but remains above target, while the labor market shows resilience without clear signs of deterioration. This backdrop supports a “wait-and-see” approach from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, signaling restraint rather than urgency.

Barclays and Bank of America: Cuts Expected, but Not Soon

Barclays anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts during 2026. According to the bank, these moves could materialize in June and December. Its outlook suggests that downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation are now more balanced, reducing the need for rapid easing.

Bank of America shares the 50-basis-point view but differs on timing. It expects cuts to arrive earlier, potentially in June and July. The bank also notes that current market pricing could leave room for a relatively dovish surprise from the Fed if incoming data softens.

Citigroup: A Normalization-Driven Path

Citigroup continues to project 50 basis points of easing, likely split between June and September. However, Citi frames these cuts as part of a gradual normalization process rather than a reaction to immediate economic stress. For this scenario to play out, clearer and more sustained progress on inflation would be required, alongside broader consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee.

JPMorgan: No Cuts on the Horizon

JPMorgan Chase stands out with the most conservative view. The bank does not expect any rate cuts in 2026. Its analysts argue that after three precautionary cuts, many policymakers may see a prolonged pause as the most prudent option. Powell is also expected to emphasize that the current policy stance is sufficient to manage risks tied to the Fed’s dual mandate.

Wells Fargo: Earlier, But Limited Easing

Wells Fargo takes a middle-ground approach, forecasting 50 basis points of cuts in March and June. The bank cautions that the longer the Fed waits, the higher the economic threshold becomes for justifying additional easing. While an early signal of accommodation is possible, Wells Fargo does not expect aggressive guidance.

A Divided Outlook, One Common Theme

Despite varying forecasts, a common thread runs through all projections: the Fed is unlikely to rush. Markets may be forced to remain patient, parsing each data release and policy signal carefully. Whether 2026 brings multiple rate cuts, a modest adjustment, or none at all, communication and tone will be just as influential as the decisions themselves.

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Key Takeaways from the FED’s Rate Decision

After cutting interest rates three times last year, the FED paused its easing cycle for the first time since July. Powell stated that the current policy stance is appropriate at this stage and emphasized that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis depending on incoming data. According to Powell, the fundamentals of the US economy remain strong, and the economy is entering 2026 on solid footing. Consumer spending continues to show strength, business investment remains on an upward trend, while activity in the housing sector remains weak.

The FED Chair noted that inflation is running slightly above target but that the overall outlook remains in line with expectations. Powell indicated that the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for December is expected to be around 3%, adding that elevated inflation is largely driven by the impact of tariffs imposed on goods.

Regarding the labor market, Powell said that job growth has slowed, but there are signs that the unemployment rate has stabilized. He also added that the slowdown in services-sector inflation appears to be continuing.

“Interest rates may currently be near the upper bound of the neutral range. However, in light of new data, it is difficult to say that policy is clearly restrictive. We will allow the data to guide us.”

What’s Next for the FED’s Interest Rate Policy?

Powell emphasized that there is no predetermined path regarding the timing or size of future rate cuts. He reiterated that FED decisions are driven entirely by economic data and noted that risks on both the inflation and employment fronts have declined recently. However, he stressed that if the economic outlook deviates from the FED’s targets, the central bank will not hesitate to take the necessary actions. Powell also highlighted the importance of the FED’s independence, underlining that monetary policy must remain free from political pressure and focused on objectivity and long-term economic stability.

FED Maintains a Cautious Stance

The FED’s January rate decision and Jerome Powell’s remarks clearly demonstrate the central bank’s continued commitment to a cautious, flexible, and data-dependent monetary policy approach. The gradual process of bringing inflation under control and the ongoing stability in the labor market will remain key factors in shaping future interest rate decisions. Experts believe the FED is well-positioned to closely monitor economic data and make swift policy adjustments when necessary, an approach aimed at limiting uncertainty in financial markets.

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When Is the Fed Meeting and Powell’s Press Conference?

The FOMC meeting takes place over January 27–28, with the policy statement scheduled for release on January 28 at 14.00 Eastern Time. Jerome Powell’s press conference will follow immediately after the announcement. Investors can watch both the decision and the Q&A session live via the Federal Reserve’s official website and YouTube channel.

For international market participants, timing remains an important detail. Outside the U.S., the announcement arrives late at night or early in the morning, depending on the region, which often coincides with thinner liquidity and heightened volatility.

Interest Rate Outlook: A Measured Pause

This meeting marks the Fed’s first scheduled policy decision of 2026. After delivering three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts toward the end of last year, the federal funds rate currently sits in the 3.5%–3.75% range. Market consensus strongly suggests that policymakers will keep rates unchanged at this meeting.

Despite ongoing political pressure to ease policy further, the Fed appears committed to a cautious stance. Analysts frame this pause not as a shift in direction, but as a deliberate pause to assess how previous easing measures are filtering through the broader economy.

Macro Backdrop: Progress, but No Clear Victory

Inflation has cooled from earlier peaks, yet it remains above the Fed’s long-term 2% target. Consumer spending continues to show resilience, while labor market conditions remain relatively tight. Financial conditions, meanwhile, have loosened modestly as investors anticipate future rate cuts.

Taken together, these dynamics support a wait-and-see approach. Policymakers are wary of moving too quickly and risk overstimulating markets or undermining progress on inflation.

Why Crypto Markets Are Watching Closely

With a rate hold largely priced in, attention has shifted to Powell’s tone and forward guidance. Subtle changes in language around future cuts or economic risks could influence risk appetite across markets. For crypto assets, which have remained rangebound in recent weeks, messaging matters more than the headline decision itself.

Bitcoin and other major digital assets are currently consolidating, but Powell’s remarks could shape expectations for liquidity conditions in the months ahead.

Communication May Matter More Than the Decision

In this meeting, the Fed’s message is likely to carry as much weight as the policy outcome. Investors across asset classes will be listening closely, as Powell’s words may set the narrative for the early months of 2026.

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U.S. Inflation Data Meets Expectations

The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed annual inflation holding steady at 2.7%, matching both market expectations and the previous reading. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.3%, while core inflation remained contained at 0.2%.

This outcome reinforced the perception that price pressures in the U.S. economy are not accelerating unexpectedly. As a result, the data did not introduce new justification for a more aggressive monetary tightening stance by the Federal Reserve. Instead, the consistency of the figures reduced concerns around a more hawkish policy shift.

Trump: “The Fed Should Lower Interest Rates!”

Following the inflation release, short-term U.S. interest rate futures moved higher, signaling that market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Predictable inflation dynamics tend to lower uncertainty around monetary policy, encouraging investors to reassess exposure to longer-duration and risk-sensitive assets.

For Bitcoin, lower interest rate expectations are particularly relevant. When rates are expected to decline, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases, improving Bitcoin’s relative appeal within diversified portfolios.

Rising Risk Appetite Supports Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s sharp reaction after the CPI announcement suggests that investors quickly interpreted the data as a green light for increased risk-taking. A stable inflation outlook supports broader market confidence, allowing assets such as Bitcoin to benefit from renewed inflows.

Additionally, expectations that interest rates may not remain elevated for an extended period have revived discussions around Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against monetary debasement, especially in an environment of accommodative policy expectations.

Political Pressure on the Fed

Adding another layer to the market narrative were remarks from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates when markets are rising and economic data remains favorable. While the Fed operates independently, such statements contribute to ongoing speculation that political pressure for looser monetary conditions could persist.

This combination of steady inflation, improving rate cut expectations, and supportive political rhetoric has helped create a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin’s latest upward move.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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