Bitcoin’s rebound from a recent low of $80,000 to above $85,000 over the weekend reflects renewed investor confidence. Trading volumes jumped nearly 50%, signaling increased market activity. Analysts attribute part of this surge to returning institutional participation. US spot ETFs saw inflows of about $238 million, helping to restore market confidence. Weekend trading typically drops by up to 25%, which can exaggerate price movements.

Investor sentiment also benefited from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a December reduction, boosting optimism. Additionally, BlackRock’s proposed staked Ethereum ETF, with an estimated 3–4% yield, further fueled market confidence.

US Economic Reports Could Drive Volatility

Investors are closely watching three key US reports this week: the Producer Price Index (PPI), weekly jobless claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE.

The PPI, scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 25, will reveal wholesale price trends. A higher-than-expected PPI could reduce rate-cut expectations, while softer data might support policy easing early next year.

Weekly jobless claims, due on Wednesday, November 26, could also influence market sentiment. Higher-than-expected unemployment claims typically reinforce the case for sooner rate cuts. Last week’s US job report exceeded projections, driving Bitcoin gains.

The PCE inflation report will likely be the key short-term market driver. By reflecting real consumer behavior, any upside surprise could trigger immediate volatility across Bitcoin and major altcoins.

Analysts Split on Market Sustainability

Analyst Oleg Kalmanovich notes that US retail sales and PCE data will determine if the recovery continues. Weak data could strengthen the case for a December rate cut, while stronger numbers may apply pressure on the market into early 2026.

CryptoQuant highlights that short-term holders have largely capitulated, suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, losing the $80,000 support level could trigger a prolonged correction.

According to QCP Asia, BTC is showing early recovery signs after a brutal 30% drop. Dovish Fed comments have pushed December rate-cut expectations to 75%. Derivatives positioning indicates traders are still betting on upside, with year-end call open interest outweighing puts. Negative funding rates also suggest long leverage has been flushed, reducing downside risk.

This week is pivotal for the crypto market. PPI, jobless claims, and PCE data, combined with positive ETF flows, could determine whether Bitcoin’s rebound above $87K is sustainable.

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U.S. Inflation Cools More Than Expected

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the market consensus of 0.4%. This lower-than-expected figure suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut interest rates without overheating the economy. Historically, such data tends to boost sentiment in risk markets like equities and bonds, as it indicates that inflation may be under control.

Liquidations Trigger a Short-Term Shakeout

The largest wave of liquidations occurred when Bitcoin failed to break through the $114,000 resistance level, leading to forced selling near $111,000. This sell-off initiated a short-term consolidation phase, which helped clear excessive leverage from the market. While painful in the short run, these shakeouts often establish a more stable foundation for future recovery.

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum (ETH) led the liquidation charts with $44.4 million, followed by Bitcoin at $40.5 million. This highlights the ongoing dominance of major assets in leveraged trading environments.

Institutional and Regulatory Momentum Builds for Bitcoin and Crypto

Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term outlook remains solid, supported by positive institutional and regulatory trends. The European Union’s approval of the Swiss-based Bitcoin app Relai under the MiCA framework marks a significant milestone in integrating crypto assets into traditional finance.

With this license, Relai can now offer regulated Bitcoin investment services, accept SEPA payments, and expand its trading operations across Europe. At the same time, JPMorgan’s decision to allow clients to borrow against Bitcoin and Ether holdings is another sign of growing institutional confidence. The bank will custody these assets through a third-party provider, offering a compliant structure for accessing liquidity without selling crypto holdings.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, often a precursor to a major breakout. The rising trendline support sits near $109,700, while descending resistance forms around $114,100. This narrowing structure suggests that volatility could soon return with a decisive move in either direction.

The 20-day EMA ($110,300) crossing above the 50-day EMA ($110,200) signals improving short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI at 60 indicates strengthening sentiment without overbought conditions. If Bitcoin closes above $114,100, the next upside targets could range between $117,000 and $120,000, with potential extension toward $125,000. However, a drop below $111,000 may lead to a retest of the $109,700–$106,700 zone.

If the bulls manage to reclaim the $114,000 resistance with convincing volume, a Q4 rally toward $120K–$125K remains within reach. For now, this consolidation phase appears to be the calm before the next major breakout.

This article does not constitute financial advice.

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Data Above Expectations

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 224K (Forecast: 225K, Previous: 226K)

• Annual PPI: 3.3% (Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.3%)

• Monthly PPI: 0.9% (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%)

The fact that both annual and monthly PPI came in significantly higher than expected has reinforced the market perception that “inflation is still not under control.”

Decline in Rate Cut Probabilities

According to Polymarket data, rate cut probabilities for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting are as follows:

• 50+ bps cut: 5%

• 25 bps cut: 75%

• No change: 19%

These figures show that after the PPI release, the likelihood of a strong 50 basis point cut has weakened considerably, creating a more cautious outlook in the markets.

Sharp Drop in Bitcoin

This negative macroeconomic sentiment also spilled over into Bitcoin prices. The leading cryptocurrency fell 3.51%, dropping below $119,000. Rising inflation data and the decreased likelihood of a more dovish Fed stance have increased selling pressure on risk assets.

Short-term market volatility is expected to continue, with investors closely monitoring both inflation indicators and statements from Fed officials.

$1.05 Billion in Positions Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours!

In the past 24 hours, heightened volatility in the crypto market has led to more than $1.05 billion in liquidations. Of this, $781.97 million came from long positions and $270.19 million from short positions. This highlights the severe losses for leveraged traders and the sharp moves occurring in both directions.

U.S. Stocks Open Lower!

U.S. equities started the day slightly in the red. At the open, the Dow Jones index was down 0.07%, the S&P 500 fell 0.30%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.31%. This weak opening reflects investors’ cautious stance regarding economic data and rate cut expectations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry high risks, and you should always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Expectation: 225K
Actual: 224K
Previous: 226K 

PPI is an important inflation indicator that shows changes in producer costs. US Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) announced at 0.9% (Expected: 0.2%, Previous: 0%)

Expectation: 0.2%
Actual: 3.3%
Previous: 0% 

Impact of U.S. PPI and Jobless Claims on the Market 

The U.S. PPI data indicates changes in producer costs and provides early signals of inflation. A high U.S PPI increase raises the likelihood of costs passing on to consumers, influencing investors’ inflation expectations. This can shape the Fed’s interest rate decisions; if there is upward pressure, a rate hike may be considered, while low or stable values support a rate cut or maintaining current levels. 

Jobless claims reflect the health of the labor market. Rising claims indicate economic slowdown and may prompt the Fed to pursue more accommodative policies. Low claims suggest a strong labor market, supporting decisions to raise or maintain interest rates. These data create short-term volatility in stock, currency, bond, and crypto markets, directly affecting investor strategies. 

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U.S. Annual PPI Falls Short of Expectations at 2.3%

The annual PPI for June was announced at 2.3%, below the expected 2.5%. The previous figure stood at 2.7%. This decline indicates easing price pressure at the producer level.

U.S. Monthly PPI Drops to Zero

The monthly PPI came in at 0.0%, significantly below the 0.2% expectation. This figure was 0.3% in May, indicating a noticeable pause in inflation on the producer side.

Surprise Decline in Core PPI

Excluding volatile items like energy and food, the Core PPI also showed weakness:

• Annual Core PPI: 2.6% (Expected: 2.7% / Previous: 3.2%)

• Monthly Core PPI: 0.0% (Expected: 0.2% / Previous: 0.4%)

These declines indicate that core inflation is also slowing. Given that core data often has a more direct impact on Fed decisions, this development is particularly noteworthy.

Impact on Crypto and Financial Markets

In the markets, weaker inflation data may be interpreted as a sign that the Fed could start cutting rates sooner than expected. This could have a positive effect on bitcoin and other altcoins in particular.

In fact, CPI data released in recent weeks also came in below expectations. Now, weak signals from the PPI side suggest that overall inflationary pressure is easing.

Risk assets, in particular, are highly sensitive to rate cut signals. As such, a short-term recovery may be seen in both equity markets and the crypto market.

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US PPI and Jobless Claims Announced!

• Monthly PPI was announced at 0.1%. The expectation was 0.2%. (Previous: -0.5%)
• Annual PPI came in at 2.6%, in line with expectations. (Previous: 2.4%)
• Jobless claims were recorded at 248,000. (Expectation: 242,000, Previous: 247,000)

While the data is generally interpreted as showing moderate inflation pressures, jobless claims in the labor market do not appear to be as positive. This is interpreted by the markets as a neutral to positive signal.

Will There Be a Rate Cut?

The biggest question mark on investors’ minds continues to be the expectation of a rate cut. Especially compared to the data released in December, the current data has strengthened investors’ probability that the Fed will cut rates in September. Market participants evaluate the probability of a rate cut in September followed by a second cut in October as 80%.

Impact on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Markets

Following the data release, Bitcoin is trading at $107,203. In recent days, geopolitical tensions and global trade agreements have led to increased volatility in the crypto market.

Although the US data did not directly cause a sharp price movement, crypto investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic developments.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve high risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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April Inflation Data: CPI and PPI 

First, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on May 13. This data reveals inflation trends. A low CPI increases the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, boosting the crypto market. However, high inflation strengthens rate hike pressures, pushing the market down. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report arrives on May 15. PPI measures production costs and guides Fed policies. High PPI is said to trigger a sell-off wave in crypto assets. 

SEC Crypto Roundtable Conference 

Also, on May 13, the SEC is holding a roundtable conference. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak on asset tokenization. The conference will discuss the integration of traditional finance with decentralized finance (DeFi). Positive regulatory messages could rapidly boost the value of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. On the other hand, signals of strict regulation may spark fear in the market. This event will chart the crypto market’s course. 

Powell’s Speech and Additional Data 

Finally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on May 15. Powell’s remarks on interest rate policies will shake the market. A dovish speech could lift prices, while hawkish comments may trigger a decline. On the same day, retail sales data will reflect economic strength. Strong data increases rate hike expectations, dragging crypto down. On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Confidence data will be released. High confidence may bolster stocks while overshadowing the crypto market. 

These five events will create volatility in the crypto market. Investors should closely monitor these developments and plan their moves accordingly. 

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Especially noteworthy are Terra Luna founder Do Kwon’s U.S. trial, China’s new tariff implementation, and the release of FOMC minutes—all of which could significantly impact both traditional and crypto markets.

Inflation metrics such as CPI and PPI may influence expectations around the Fed’s rate path. Additionally, FTX’s creditor distribution and the SEC’s digital asset task force meeting are also likely to be closely watched by investors.

What to Watch This Week & Potential Market Impact

We’ve compiled the most important events to watch this week. These developments in both global economics and the crypto space could bring both opportunities and risks. Here’s a breakdown of the top events:

Tuesday, April 8 – Syscoin’s Nexus Upgrade

• The Syscoin (SYS) network will undergo its “Nexus” upgrade.

• Improved network efficiency may drive increased interest in the $SYS token.

Wednesday, April 9 – Neutron Upgrade & FOMC Minutes

• Neutron (NTRN) will implement the “Mercury” network upgrade.

• A successful upgrade could positively influence $NTRN’s price movement.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released.

• Investors will look for clues about the Fed’s policy stance, potentially triggering market volatility.

Thursday, April 10 – Do Kwon’s Trial, CPI, Jobless Claims, and China Tariffs

• Terra Luna founder Do Kwon will stand trial in the U.S.

• The outcome may have direct implications for LUNA and Terra ecosystem assets.

• U.S. Yearly CPI data will be published. (Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.8%)

• A higher-than-expected inflation print could delay Fed rate cuts, impacting markets broadly.

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will also be released. (Forecast: 223K | Previous: 219K)

• Labor market conditions could further influence investor sentiment.

• China to implement 34% additional tariffs on U.S. goods.

• Rising trade tensions may weigh on market risk appetite.

Friday, April 11 – SEC Meeting, PPI, BlackRock Earnings & FTX Distribution

• The SEC will hold its first meeting of the Digital Assets Task Force.

• Regulatory developments could add pressure to the crypto market in the short term.

• U.S. Yearly PPI report to be released. (Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.2%)

• Continued inflationary pressures may affect Fed rate outlook.

• BlackRock will publish its earnings report.

• Results could influence global investor sentiment and broader financial markets.

• FTX to begin distributions for users with balances over $50,000.

• This marks a major milestone in the bankruptcy process and could impact user confidence.

In summary, this week’s mix of economic data, network upgrades, and legal developments could drive significant volatility in crypto markets. Investors should monitor events closely and adjust strategies accordingly.

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The post What Will Happen in Crypto and World Markets This Week! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

How Will the Lower-Than-Expected Data Affect the Market?

The PPI figures being below expectations may weaken the USD, as markets could interpret this as a sign of slower interest rate hikes. This, in turn, could drive increased demand for risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Shared, That Memecoin Flew: Up 500%!

Lower PPI data may trigger a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin and Ethereum, for example, could experience price increases driven by increased liquidity and demand. Especially with rising BTC and ETH prices, this effect may spill over into the altcoin market as well. For cryptocurrencies, controlling inflation can lead investors to seek safer assets, boosting the appeal of digital currencies.

Market Expectations and Potential Outcomes

Following the data release, a bullish sentiment may dominate the cryptocurrency market in the short term. The weakening of the USD could lead to more investment and demand for cryptocurrencies. This development could cause Bitcoin and other digital assets to attract more attention. However, the long-term effects of USD weakness will be closely monitored by the market.

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Core PPI and PPI Data:

The Core PPI (Producer Price Index excluding food and energy) showed a monthly increase of 0.3% in October, higher than the expected 0.2% rise. Producer prices overall serve as a crucial indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy. The PPI (Producer Price Index) also increased by 0.2%, compared to 0% in the previous month, showing a continued rise in producer prices. These data suggest that price increases are ongoing, potentially putting pressure on inflation.

Unemployment Claims:

Another important figure released today was the number of unemployment claims. The data shows 217,000 claims, slightly lower than the expected 221,000. This increase in unemployment claims could be seen as a sign of acceleration in the labor market.

These figures will assist economists in predicting the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policies and interest rate decisions. The producer prices and unemployment claims shed light on inflationary pressures and developments in the labor market.

Markets are eagerly awaiting how they will react to these figures. Dollar volatility and interest in safe-haven investments may increase due to the impact of these data.

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