Criticism of Common Valuation Models

In comments shared on the social media platform X, PlanC argued that several popular quantitative approaches used to estimate Bitcoin’s fair value may be fundamentally flawed. Methods such as ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and linear quantile regression, which are frequently applied in financial modeling, were specifically highlighted as potentially misleading when applied to Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.

Using these traditional techniques, analysts often arrive at fair value estimates ranging between $118,000 and $130,000. However, PlanC believes those figures rely on statistical assumptions that fail to reflect how Bitcoin’s price structure evolves over time. According to the analyst, the models overlook important structural shifts that have gradually altered Bitcoin’s long-term growth pattern.

The Role of “Decay” in Bitcoin’s Price Model

A key element of PlanC’s argument centers on what the analyst describes as a “decay” effect within Bitcoin’s price distribution. In statistical terms, this effect appears most clearly at the median level, or the 50th quantile, where the growth curve of the model gradually weakens over time.

Because of this dynamic, PlanC suggests that static or purely linear models are not well suited for estimating Bitcoin’s fair value. Instead, models that incorporate time-dependent decay functions may produce more realistic results.

When applying alternative mathematical approaches—including logarithmic, hyperbolic, and log-normal decay functions—PlanC’s model calculates Bitcoin’s current fair value at roughly $100,000 to $101,000. This range is significantly lower than the estimates produced by several traditional regression-based models.

Why Lower Quantiles Behave Differently

Interestingly, PlanC noted that this decay effect does not appear uniformly across all quantiles. At the first quantile, for example, no noticeable decay is present. As a result, calculations at lower quantile levels produce results that closely match those generated by standard linear quantile regression models.

However, the difference becomes more pronounced at the median level. According to the analyst, this is where the largest distortion occurs when traditional modeling techniques are used, leading some valuation frameworks to overestimate Bitcoin’s fair value.

A New Perspective on Bitcoin’s Valuation

Based on the model presented by PlanC, Bitcoin’s statistically derived fair value currently sits near $101,000. The analyst argues that models projecting significantly higher values are often built on assumptions that do not fully account for the evolving nature of Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.

As the cryptocurrency market matures, analysts continue experimenting with different frameworks to better understand Bitcoin’s valuation. PlanC’s approach introduces another angle to the debate, highlighting how alternative statistical models may reshape the conversation around Bitcoin’s true market value.

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The staking process began with an initial deposit of 2,016 ETH, marking the first phase of a broader allocation plan. This step reflects the Foundation’s previously disclosed treasury management framework, which aims to balance operational resilience with Ethereum’s core principles.

Open-Source Validator Infrastructure

To execute this strategy, the Foundation is leveraging two open-source tools developed by infrastructure firm Attestant: Dirk and Vouch.

Dirk operates as a distributed signing solution, enabling coordination across multiple jurisdictions while minimizing single points of failure. Vouch, on the other hand, manages validator responsibilities within the staking setup. Together, these tools help ensure operational robustness and align with Ethereum’s decentralization ethos.

The infrastructure combines hosted services and self-managed hardware, distributed across several countries. The Foundation also utilizes minority clients to further enhance network diversity and reduce systemic risk. This architecture reflects a deliberate effort to maintain decentralization while scaling validator operations securely.

How Ethereum Staking Rewards Will Be Used

Rather than leaving treasury assets idle, the Foundation intends to reinvest staking rewards directly into the ecosystem. The generated yield will fund protocol research, developer initiatives, and community grant programs.

Current data indicates that Ethereum validators are earning an average staking yield of approximately 2.808%. The Foundation reportedly holds 172,650 ETH, along with an additional 10,000 wrapped ether (WETH), suggesting further deployment capacity remains available if needed.

A Long-Term Sustainability Approach

The decision follows the public release of the Foundation’s treasury policy last year, outlining how crypto and fiat holdings would be managed in alignment with long-term sustainability and Ethereum’s foundational values — including decentralization, open-source accessibility, and user privacy.

By staking 70,000 ETH, the Foundation is not merely optimizing capital efficiency. It is reinforcing network security while establishing a recurring funding mechanism to support Ethereum’s ongoing development. The move signals a structured, mission-aligned approach to treasury stewardship.

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The analysis team, led by Gautam Chhugani, emphasizes that today’s market conditions differ significantly from prior crypto downturns. Unlike earlier cycles marked by widespread insolvencies, cascading failures, and structural breakdowns, the current pullback lacks signs of systemic stress.

Bitcoin’s $150,000 Target Remains Intact

Bernstein analysts reaffirm their long-standing expectation that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026. They stress that recent price declines should not be interpreted as evidence of a failing ecosystem. Instead, the downturn is attributed primarily to a temporary loss of investor confidence rather than underlying structural risks.

In previous bear markets, sharp sell-offs were often triggered by major bankruptcies, critical infrastructure failures, or deep cracks in market plumbing. None of those conditions are present today, according to Bernstein. The analysts describe the current environment as one shaped more by cautious sentiment and subdued risk appetite than by fundamental weaknesses.

Media Narratives and the Return of “Bitcoin Is Dead”

Bernstein also highlights the resurgence of negative media narratives surrounding Bitcoin. Headlines declaring the asset’s demise have once again gained traction, even as attention across financial media increasingly shifts toward artificial intelligence themes.

The analysts argue that this change in focus has contributed to fading interest in crypto markets. They also push back against claims that emerging technological risks—such as quantum computing—pose a unique threat to Bitcoin. In their view, such risks apply broadly across all digital infrastructure, not exclusively to cryptocurrencies.

Why Bitcoin Lags Gold in Tight Liquidity Conditions

According to Bernstein, Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a full-fledged safe haven. In an environment defined by restrictive monetary policy and elevated interest rates, capital has flowed toward assets like gold and select artificial intelligence stocks, leaving Bitcoin under pressure.

However, the firm does not see this dynamic as permanent. Bernstein expects that easing liquidity conditions could reignite demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed corporate accumulation. While Bitcoin has not yet achieved definitive safe-haven status, analysts believe its long-term positioning continues to strengthen.

Overall, Bernstein’s assessment suggests that the current market phase represents a pause driven by confidence, not a breakdown driven by risk. From this perspective, Bitcoin’s upside potential remains firmly in place once broader financial conditions stabilize.

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Why Are Systematic Funds Turning into Sellers?

Goldman Sachs’ trading desk highlights that trend-following funds, commonly referred to as Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs), have already generated sell signals in the S&P 500. Even in scenarios where markets attempt a short-term stabilization, these strategies are expected to remain net sellers.

The bank estimates that if market weakness deepens, roughly $33 billion in equities could be sold within a single week. More importantly, should key technical levels be breached over the coming month, total systematic selling could climb to as much as $80 billion. This scale of potential outflows underscores the sensitivity of current market conditions.

Liquidity Concerns and Rising Volatility

Another critical issue flagged by analysts is deteriorating market liquidity. Shifts in options positioning, particularly the rise in “short gamma” exposure, can amplify price swings. In such environments, dealers are often forced to sell into declining markets and buy into rising ones, which tends to accelerate intraday movements and heighten overall volatility.

Beyond CTAs, other systematic approaches—such as risk-parity and volatility-control strategies—still have room to reduce exposure if market turbulence intensifies. This suggests that selling pressure could broaden, rather than remain confined to a single group of funds.

Implications for Bitcoin and Precious Metals

Although the primary focus of Goldman Sachs’ analysis is equities, history shows that liquidity-driven sell-offs often spill over into other asset classes. Bitcoin, in particular, has shown an increased correlation with broader risk sentiment during periods of market stress. As a result, forced deleveraging in equities could translate into heightened volatility across crypto markets.

The outlook for gold and silver is more nuanced. While periods of uncertainty can boost safe-haven demand, tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar may simultaneously weigh on precious metals. This dynamic can lead to sharp moves in either direction, depending on how macro conditions evolve.

Critical for Bitcoin, Gold, and US Stock Markets!

Overall, the combination of systematic deleveraging, rising volatility, and weakening investor confidence points to a fragile market environment. If the projected selling materializes, the coming weeks could serve as a significant stress test not only for U.S. equities, but also for Bitcoin and precious metals.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Show Remarkable Resilience

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to demonstrate exceptional strength, even as Bitcoin prices retreat. A key example is BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which recently reached a peak of $100 billion in assets under management before declining alongside the broader market.

Following the downturn, IBIT’s assets fell to roughly $60 billion. However, Balchunas emphasizes that this figure remains extraordinary for an ETF with a lifespan of only around 500 days. According to his assessment, even if the fund were to remain at the $60 billion level for the next three years, it would still retain its position as the fastest ETF in history to reach that scale.

This perspective underscores how rapidly institutional exposure to Bitcoin has developed, regardless of near-term price fluctuations.

Investor Conviction Remains Intact

One of the most telling indicators comes from ETF flow data. Balchunas notes that total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs amount to only about 6% of assets, meaning approximately 94% of investors have chosen to hold their positions.

This is particularly notable given that Bitcoin has experienced a price decline of roughly 40%, placing a significant portion of investors in unrealized loss territory. Despite this, the majority of ETF holders have resisted the urge to exit. Such behavior suggests that these participants are operating with a long-term investment horizon rather than reacting to short-term market noise.

From an institutional standpoint, this kind of holding pattern is often associated with confidence in the asset’s broader thesis rather than speculative trading.

A Wry Reaction From Binance’s Founder

Balchunas’s bullish-leaning interpretation did not go unnoticed within the crypto industry. Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, responded publicly to the commentary, expressing mild surprise at hearing such an optimistic take from a Bloomberg analyst.

Zhao humorously referenced the frequent “Bitcoin is dead” narrative often seen in traditional media, implying that the tone of this assessment marked a notable departure from that pattern.

Bigger Picture: Volatility vs. Structure

While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, ETF data suggests that institutional conviction has not materially weakened. The contrast between short-term price pressure and long-term capital commitment continues to define the current market landscape, keeping the broader bull case firmly in discussion.

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Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, emphasizes that downside risks are still firmly in play. In his view, Bitcoin’s recent movements do not yet reflect a decisive shift in market sentiment, particularly as macro and crypto-specific catalysts remain scarce.

Galaxy Digital: Realized Price Emerges as a Key Level

One of the most critical metrics highlighted by Galaxy Digital is Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. This level currently sits near $56,000. Thorn notes that Bitcoin may first revisit the $70,000 supply gap, after which a test of the realized price becomes increasingly plausible if bearish conditions persist.

A major headwind, according to Galaxy, is Bitcoin’s failure to trade in tandem with traditional hard assets like gold and silver. This disconnect weakens the “debasement hedge” narrative that has historically supported Bitcoin during periods of macro uncertainty, placing additional pressure on price expectations.

Technical Structure: Long-Term Averages in Focus

Although Bitcoin recently gained around 3% to trade just below $78,500, it remains roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in early October. Galaxy Digital places particular importance on long-term moving averages when evaluating market cycles.

Thorn points out that Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average, currently near $58,000, has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. In prior market downturns, these levels have often served as strong accumulation zones for long-term investors.

Long-Term Holder Behavior Suggests a Potential Base

On-chain data analyzed by Galaxy Digital indicates limited evidence of aggressive accumulation by large holders so far. This suggests that some investors may be waiting for lower prices before re-entering the market.

However, there is a notable shift: long-term holder profit-taking has slowed significantly. While some holders may still be inclined to sell into strength, the reduction in realized profits historically aligns with markets approaching a local or cyclical bottom.

Regulatory Developments Unlikely to Boost Bitcoin Near-Term

While US lawmakers continue to debate a crypto market structure bill, Galaxy Digital believes its short-term impact on Bitcoin may be limited. Even if passed, Thorn argues that regulatory clarity is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than Bitcoin itself.

Overall, Galaxy’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin could remain volatile in the near term, but is gradually approaching levels that have historically marked long-term opportunity zones.

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On a daily basis, spot gold declined by 0.14%, while spot silver posted a 1.01% gain. Despite silver’s positive close, intraday price action across both metals suggests that markets are entering a consolidation phase following a strong rally in recent weeks.

Trade Policies and Global Tensions Drove the Recent Rally

The sharp rise in gold and silver prices over the past period was largely fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and escalating geopolitical tensions. In particular, expectations that the United States would implement new tariffs boosted demand for safe-haven assets, pushing precious metals toward all-time highs.

As these risks intensified, investors increasingly sought protection in gold and silver. However, the subsequent easing of those concerns has begun to reverse that trend.

Gold outlook:

Silver outlook:

Trump’s Tariff Decision Shifts Market Expectations

Market sentiment changed notably after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the planned tariffs would not be implemented. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump stated that the framework for a potential agreement involving Greenland had become clearer.

As part of this development, tariffs scheduled to take effect on February 1 were suspended in connection with the Greenland negotiations. The removal of this immediate trade risk reduced short-term demand for safe-haven assets, putting downward pressure on precious metal prices.

Greenland Talks Gain Momentum at the Highest Level

According to Trump’s remarks, negotiations related to Greenland will be led by senior U.S. officials. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to take charge of the talks.

The involvement of top-level policymakers underscores that the issue extends beyond trade, carrying broader strategic and geopolitical implications.

U.S. Eyes Role in Greenland’s Mineral Resources

Trump also indicated that the United States could play a role in Greenland’s mineral rights under a potential agreement. This statement points to a longer-term strategic interest in the region’s natural resource potential.

Estimates suggest that Greenland’s natural resource reserves may be worth approximately $5 trillion, highlighting why the territory has become increasingly significant in global energy and raw materials discussions.

Precious Metals Enter a Short-Term Consolidation Phase

With tariff-related risks diminishing and geopolitical tensions temporarily easing, the upward momentum in gold and silver has weakened. Still, analysts caution that global economic and political uncertainties have not disappeared entirely.

As a result, while precious metals may experience volatility and consolidation in the near term, it may be premature to conclude that safe-haven demand has fully faded. Markets will continue to monitor geopolitical developments and global trade signals closely, as any renewed uncertainty could quickly restore interest in gold and silver.

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Despite the significance of the development on the infrastructure side, the market response has remained muted in the short term. Following the announcement, Pi Coin continued to trade around the $0.2089 level, showing no immediate price reaction.

Pi Payments Integrated in Under 10 Minutes

According to information shared by the Pi Network team, the newly released library allows developers to integrate Pi-based payments into applications in less than 10 minutes. The update consolidates previously separate components—namely the Pi SDK and backend APIs—into a single, streamlined setup.

By simplifying the technical process, Pi Network reduces the friction developers often face when adding payment functionality. This makes it easier to test concepts, build prototypes, and deploy Pi-enabled applications without lengthy development cycles.

Lower Barriers for Developers and Experimentation

Payments are a foundational element of any real-world application. By making them easier to implement, Pi Network lowers the entry barrier for developers who want to experiment with new ideas or expand existing projects.

This approach encourages faster iteration and broader participation across the ecosystem. As technical complexity decreases, the number of potential use cases and experimental applications can increase, supporting Pi Network’s long-term shift toward utility-driven growth rather than mining alone.

Broad Technology Support for Faster Development

The new payment library is designed to work with widely adopted development tools. On the frontend side, support includes JavaScript and React, while backend integration is available for frameworks such as Next.js and Ruby on Rails.

This compatibility allows both existing Pi applications and new projects to add payment features without major architectural changes. As a result, updates and feature rollouts can be implemented more efficiently, improving overall development speed.

Infrastructure First, Price Later

While the update did not trigger an immediate market response, it highlights Pi Network’s strategic focus on building foundational infrastructure ahead of broader adoption. Rather than prioritizing short-term price movements, the project appears to be positioning itself for sustainable ecosystem growth extending into 2026 and beyond.

Overall, this release represents one of Pi Network’s most concrete steps toward becoming a payment- and utility-oriented blockchain platform, signaling a clear shift from experimentation toward practical implementation.

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Gold Pulls Back, but Weekly Trend Remains Positive

Spot gold edged lower on Friday, slipping 0.11% to trade around $4,472.57 per ounce. While the intraday decline reflects near-term profit-taking, gold is still on track to close the week with gains of roughly 3%. The broader uptrend remains intact, supported by the fact that bullion reached an all-time high of $4,549.71 on December 26.

Dollar Strength Drives Short-Term Pressure

According to independent analyst Ross Norman, the recent pullback in gold prices is largely the result of profit-taking after a strong rally. However, the dominant factor weighing on prices is the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar ahead of critical employment data.

The dollar has climbed to its highest level in nearly a month as markets await a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding former President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff authorities. A firmer dollar typically makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, limiting short-term upside.

Labor Market Data in Focus

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect job growth of 60,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to ease from 4.6% to 4.5%. The outcome is likely to influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, making the data particularly important for precious metals.

Commodity Index Rebalancing Adds to Volatility

Additional pressure has come from the annual rebalancing process within the Bloomberg Commodity Index. As index weightings are adjusted to reflect current market conditions, precious metals can experience temporary selling pressure. Despite this, Norman notes that the broader fundamentals for gold remain constructive.

Long-Term Gold Outlook Still Constructive

HSBC maintains a bullish long-term view, citing elevated geopolitical risks and rising global debt levels. The bank forecasts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. Expectations of lower interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to favor non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver and Other Precious Metals

Silver has shown relative resilience, rising 0.3% to $77.48 per ounce and positioning itself for a weekly gain of more than 5%.

Platinum, after hitting record levels earlier, declined 1.8% to $2,227.11, while palladium traded flat near $1,786.18. Both metals remain on track to preserve their weekly advances.

Overall, while short-term volatility persists, the broader trend across precious metals continues to favor the bulls.

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Bitcoin’s Potential Role in Global Trade

VanEck’s base case scenario envisions Bitcoin becoming deeply integrated into the global financial system over the next 25 years. Under this model, Bitcoin could settle between 5% and 10% of international trade, as well as about 5% of domestic trade worldwide by 2050. If this level of adoption is achieved, it would place Bitcoin alongside some of today’s major currencies in terms of usage for settling transactions.

This projected role reflects not only Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance in sanctioned countries that already use it for cross-border transactions, but also the possibility of broader adoption if global trade patterns and monetary preferences evolve.

Central Bank Reserves and Strategic Allocation

Another key component of VanEck’s outlook is the role of Bitcoin in sovereign asset portfolios. In the base case, analysts predict that central banks could allocate around 2.5% of their total reserves to Bitcoin by 2050. Holding Bitcoin as part of official reserves would mark a significant shift from the current dominance of traditional reserve currencies, and could contribute to Bitcoin’s acceptance as a hedge against currency debasement.

If realized, this allocation would help elevate Bitcoin’s share of all global financial assets to roughly 1.66%, further reinforcing its position as a mainstream store of value.

Bitcoin Price Targets and Growth Scenarios

VanEck’s report outlines three distinct price trajectories based on different adoption and macroeconomic outcomes:

• Bear Scenario: A modest growth environment with Bitcoin reaching around $130,000 by 2050, assuming a 2% compound annual growth rate.

• Base Scenario: The central forecast sees Bitcoin reaching approximately $2.9 million per coin, driven by adoption in global trade and reserve portfolios at a 15% annualized growth rate.

• Bull Scenario: Under an optimistic outlook where Bitcoin captures a greater share of trade and reserves, the price could soar toward $52.4 million with a 29% compound annual growth rate.

The base forecast, while substantial, is more conservative than earlier VanEck projections that assumed higher growth rates.

Comparison With Traditional Reserve Currencies

To put Bitcoin’s potential market share in context, data from the global payments network SWIFT shows that the US dollar continued to dominate global trade settlements as of late 2025, accounting for 47.8% of activity, followed by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%.

If Bitcoin were to capture 5% to 10% of such trade settlement activity, it would be roughly on par with the British pound’s current role. This comparison highlights how meaningful even a relatively small slice of global trade adoption could be for Bitcoin’s valuation.

Structural Drivers Behind the Forecast of Bitcoin

VanEck’s analysts pinpoint global liquidity growth, currency debasement concerns, and structural limitations of sovereign debt systems as key long-term value drivers for Bitcoin. They emphasize that Bitcoin, with its capped supply and decentralized monetary policy, has the potential to act as a hedge against adverse monetary outcomes.

While marketplace dynamics and short-term price action remain tied to liquidity cycles and leverage, the firm’s long-term framework suggests that Bitcoin’s convergence with trade and reserve adoption could shape its fundamental value over decades.

VanEck’s projection is not a prediction of guaranteed outcomes but rather an illustration of how Bitcoin’s role could evolve under specific adoption and macroeconomic conditions. As with all long-term forecasts, actual results may vary based on technology development, regulatory environments, and broader economic trends.

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