This picture is supported not only by price movements but also by the flow of realized profits and losses. Particularly, losses accumulated since the end of December align with early bear market behaviors observed in previous cycles.

Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?

According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, Bitcoin holders have realized net losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December 23. This marks the first 30-day period in which network participants posted net losses. For the first time since October 2023, investors moved from profits to selling at a loss. In other words, holders closed positions at prices lower than their purchase.

However, this shift did not happen overnight. On-chain data shows that realized profits have gradually declined since March 2024. As price momentum weakened, the bull phase ended, and holders began realizing lower profits.

The critical point is that profits are falling even while prices remain relatively high, signaling a structural shift in investor behavior.

Crypto Market “Extreme Fear”: Bitcoin Under Pressure

Dangerous Similarities With the 2021–2022 Cycle

Analysts highlight that the current structure bears striking resemblance to the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition. Back then, net realized profits peaked in January 2021, followed by lower local tops in February and November. The network then entered a net loss phase.

Notably, investors realized lower net profits at higher prices, indicating that the market could no longer absorb gains and had entered a distribution phase.

Today’s pattern is following a similar trajectory. Net realized profits peaked in January 2024, then fell to lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, margins have turned fully negative.

Early Bear Market Signals

Looking deeper at the data, Bitcoin’s annual net realized profits dropped from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today, a level last seen in March 2024. More importantly, this pace and level of decline nearly mirrors the start of the last bear market in March 2022.

Even more striking is the net loss behavior. Current loss patterns almost exactly replicate the first bear phase in March 2022, when price momentum had already weakened and the market was sustained by “correction” narratives. On-chain data, however, had already signaled danger well in advance.

A similar investor sentiment gap is forming today.

Why Is Demand Not Reacting?

CryptoQuant and other on-chain sources indicate no significant demand increase from ETFs or spot markets. Even though short-lived improvements occurred, total demand has contracted again over the past 30 days.

This suggests a lack of natural buyers to push prices higher. Rising realized losses imply that investors are increasingly moving toward exits rather than waiting.

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