Crypto Market Cap Reclaims $3 Trillion — Cautiously

With the latest upside move, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has once again climbed above $3 trillion. This level has acted as a critical battleground between buyers and sellers over the past several weeks. While the return above this psychological threshold is notable, market participants remain unconvinced that it reflects renewed demand.

Instead, analysts describe the move as a technical response following prolonged selling pressure. After weeks of declines, lower price levels naturally attracted short-term buying, but conviction remains limited.

Technical Bounce, Not a Structural Recovery

According to FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, the current market strength should not be mistaken for a broader turnaround. He emphasizes that while the market is attempting to grow again, it lacks the structural support required for a sustained recovery.

Risk appetite has improved only marginally. The fear and greed index rising to 25 suggests traders are stepping away from extreme pessimism, yet remain far from embracing risk. This cautious positioning reflects lingering disappointment after the optimism seen earlier in the year faded.

Bitcoin Trapped in a Narrow Range

Bitcoin traded near $88,000 during Asian market hours, testing the upper boundary of a range that has held since early last week. The inability to decisively break higher highlights the fragility of short-term momentum.

At current levels, Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is also trading below prices seen at the start of the year. This underperformance continues to shape investor psychology, reinforcing a sense of fatigue rather than confidence.

Fourth Quarter Performance Raises Red Flags

Seasonal data further supports a cautious outlook. According to CoinGlass figures, Bitcoin has declined by more than 22% so far in the fourth quarter. This places 2025 among the weakest year-end periods since 2018, outside of full-scale bear markets.

While the fourth quarter has historically delivered strong rallies, it has also produced sharp drawdowns during periods of tightening liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. Recent trading patterns reflect this vulnerability, with gains made during Asian and European sessions frequently fading once U.S. markets open.

For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory suggests resilience remains limited, and the market continues to search for a durable catalyst.

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The post Bitcoin Faces Its Weakest Final Quarter Since 2018 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

U.S. Inflation Cools More Than Expected

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the market consensus of 0.4%. This lower-than-expected figure suggests that inflationary pressures are easing, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut interest rates without overheating the economy. Historically, such data tends to boost sentiment in risk markets like equities and bonds, as it indicates that inflation may be under control.

Liquidations Trigger a Short-Term Shakeout

The largest wave of liquidations occurred when Bitcoin failed to break through the $114,000 resistance level, leading to forced selling near $111,000. This sell-off initiated a short-term consolidation phase, which helped clear excessive leverage from the market. While painful in the short run, these shakeouts often establish a more stable foundation for future recovery.

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum (ETH) led the liquidation charts with $44.4 million, followed by Bitcoin at $40.5 million. This highlights the ongoing dominance of major assets in leveraged trading environments.

Institutional and Regulatory Momentum Builds for Bitcoin and Crypto

Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term outlook remains solid, supported by positive institutional and regulatory trends. The European Union’s approval of the Swiss-based Bitcoin app Relai under the MiCA framework marks a significant milestone in integrating crypto assets into traditional finance.

With this license, Relai can now offer regulated Bitcoin investment services, accept SEPA payments, and expand its trading operations across Europe. At the same time, JPMorgan’s decision to allow clients to borrow against Bitcoin and Ether holdings is another sign of growing institutional confidence. The bank will custody these assets through a third-party provider, offering a compliant structure for accessing liquidity without selling crypto holdings.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, often a precursor to a major breakout. The rising trendline support sits near $109,700, while descending resistance forms around $114,100. This narrowing structure suggests that volatility could soon return with a decisive move in either direction.

The 20-day EMA ($110,300) crossing above the 50-day EMA ($110,200) signals improving short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI at 60 indicates strengthening sentiment without overbought conditions. If Bitcoin closes above $114,100, the next upside targets could range between $117,000 and $120,000, with potential extension toward $125,000. However, a drop below $111,000 may lead to a retest of the $109,700–$106,700 zone.

If the bulls manage to reclaim the $114,000 resistance with convincing volume, a Q4 rally toward $120K–$125K remains within reach. For now, this consolidation phase appears to be the calm before the next major breakout.

This article does not constitute financial advice.

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Fed’s Rate Path and Regulatory Shifts

On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. Projections suggest that rates could fall further to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end, implying two additional cuts. This shift toward a more neutral policy stance is expected to impact everything from credit markets to crypto liquidity.

At the same time, U.S. regulators are stepping up efforts to provide clarity for the digital asset space. In September, the SEC and CFTC confirmed that registered exchanges will be permitted to list spot crypto commodities. Shortly after, the CFTC approved tokenized collateral for derivatives, and the SEC signaled plans to introduce an “innovation exemption” for digital assets before year-end.

Crypto ETFs and Stablecoin Frameworks

ETF approvals are accelerating under this new regulatory environment. The SEC has eliminated the need for individual applications for token-specific ETFs, placing assets like Solana, XRP, Litecoin, Cardano, and Dogecoin under a broader approval umbrella. Analysts now view altcoin ETFs as virtually inevitable.

Meanwhile, the recently enacted GENIUS Act has provided a federal framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S. Industry players such as Circle and Coinbase welcomed the move, highlighting its potential to integrate stablecoins into payments and derivatives markets. Abroad, the Bank of England is piloting tokenized deposit programs with leading banks, while European institutions are preparing euro-denominated stablecoin initiatives.

Opportunities and Risks Ahead

This convergence of monetary easing, regulatory coordination, ETF access, and stablecoin adoption creates a unique environment for investors. Opportunities include reallocating into risk assets that stand to benefit from lower rates, leveraging ETFs for easier exposure, and utilizing tokenized collateral for greater capital efficiency.

Still, challenges remain. The Fed’s rate cuts depend on labor market stability, and many SEC and CFTC initiatives are still in draft stages.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

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PlanC: “The Q4 Peak Is a Statistical Misconception”

Crypto analyst PlanC recently criticized the idea that Bitcoin must top out in Q4, calling it statistically unsound.

“Assuming Bitcoin is guaranteed to peak at the end of this year goes against basic probability theory,” PlanC explained. He likened the logic to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also land tails. According to him, basing conclusions solely on three previous cycles does not constitute meaningful statistical evidence.

Are Bitcoin Halving Cycles Still Relevant?

PlanC also suggested that the traditional halving cycle model may no longer apply to Bitcoin’s trajectory. He pointed to new dynamics in the market, such as the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the billions of dollars flowing into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is no fundamental reason for a peak in Q4 2025 other than psychological momentum or a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.

Q4: Historically Bitcoin’s Strongest Quarter

Still, history shows that Q4 has often been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged an 85.42% return. But analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. In fact, if the halving cycle remains a factor, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Expert Opinions on Bitcoin

Market experts are far from united on Bitcoin’s year-end outlook:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates there’s a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches between $140,000 and $150,000 this year before a potential bear market in 2026.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes the bull cycle will last longer, stating, “I’d bet 2026 is an up year.”

• On the more bullish side, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) and Joe Burnett (Director of Research at Unchained) have both predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the end of 2025.

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