At the same time, rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions are raising new concerns about inflation. These developments are not only important for traditional markets but could also have a significant impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

A Busy Interest Rate Calendar Awaits Markets

The upcoming economic calendar is filled with key policy announcements that may shape the near-term outlook for global markets. The schedule is expected to unfold as follows:

• March 17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

• March 18: Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed)

• March 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB)

With several major monetary authorities delivering decisions within just a few days, investors are preparing for potential volatility across global financial markets.

Rising Oil Prices Are Reviving Inflation Concerns

One of the main factors forcing investors to rethink their interest rate expectations is the recent surge in energy prices.

The conflict that began on February 28, following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, has expanded through retaliatory actions across the region. These developments have disrupted energy shipments in parts of the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher.

The increase in energy costs has raised fears that global inflation could accelerate again, complicating the policy outlook for central banks.

If energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may need to delay planned rate cuts or maintain a more cautious stance toward monetary easing.

Rate Cut Expectations Are Being Reconsidered

Until recently, many market participants expected central banks—led by the Federal Reserve—to begin gradually lowering interest rates throughout 2026.

This expectation was partly supported by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence technologies, which some analysts believe could increase productivity and exert disinflationary pressure on the economy. A lower-rate environment typically provides strong support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

However, the recent spike in oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have introduced new uncertainty into that outlook. If rising energy costs push inflation higher, central banks could adopt a more hawkish policy stance.

Hawkish Signals Could Pressure Bitcoin

Any indication that policymakers may keep interest rates higher for longer could create turbulence in financial markets. Higher borrowing costs often reduce investor appetite for risk assets, which may lead to downward pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, if central banks maintain a wait-and-see approach or signal that inflation risks remain manageable, risk assets could regain upward momentum.

How the Fed Typically Reacts to Oil Shocks

Economist and Fed watcher Ethan Harris notes that central banks tend to react cautiously when oil prices spike.

According to Harris, this hesitation stems from two key factors. First, oil shocks tend to slow economic growth while simultaneously increasing inflation, making it difficult for policymakers to determine which risk is more pressing.

Second, many oil price shocks prove to be temporary. As a result, central banks often avoid adjusting interest rates immediately to prevent the need for rapid policy reversals shortly afterward.

Fed and BOJ Decisions May Be Most Influential for Bitcoin

Historically, the Federal Reserve has had the strongest influence on Bitcoin’s price dynamics due to its impact on global liquidity conditions.

The Bank of Japan can also play an important role at times, particularly because of Japan’s position in global capital flows.

With rising energy costs already placing pressure on Japan’s economy, the upcoming BOJ policy decision could attract significant attention from both domestic investors and global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.

Markets are Preparing For Interest Rate Decisions

The upcoming round of central bank announcements is expected to provide important insights into the direction of global monetary policy. The way policymakers respond to rising energy prices and inflation risks may shape financial market trends in the weeks ahead.

For this reason, investors are closely monitoring next week’s decisions, as signals from central banks could influence not only traditional assets but also the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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Market Pricing Signals a Pause

Current market-based expectations suggest that investors overwhelmingly anticipate no change in policy rates this month. According to pricing data from prediction platforms, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged stands at 96%. This near-consensus view indicates that market participants see little immediate justification for a shift in monetary policy.

The strong bias toward a pause reflects broader uncertainty around inflation trends and economic resilience. Rather than positioning for an imminent easing cycle, investors appear to be bracing for continuity.

Rate Cut and Hike Scenarios

While a hold is the dominant expectation, alternative outcomes are still being priced in—albeit at very low probabilities. A 50 basis point or larger rate cut is currently assigned just a 1% likelihood. Meanwhile, a more modest 25 basis point reduction carries a 2% implied probability.

On the tightening side, the outlook is similarly muted. The chance of a 25 basis point or greater rate hike is also estimated at 1%. In other words, markets see very limited risk of a surprise move in either direction at this meeting.

Fed Officials Emphasize Inflation Progress

Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials reinforce the cautious stance reflected in market pricing. Voting member Austan Goolsbee has stated that it would be premature to lower interest rates without clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving lower.

In prepared remarks dated February 24 for the National Association for Business Economics annual conference, Goolsbee indicated that additional rate cuts later this year could be possible—provided there is concrete and sustained progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Taken together, current pricing and central bank commentary point to a high likelihood that rates will remain unchanged in March. Going forward, incoming inflation data and broader economic indicators will play a decisive role in shaping the Fed’s policy path in the months ahead.

This content is not investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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Policy Rate Remains at Multi-Decade High

Following a two-day policy meeting, the BOJ confirmed that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The move came after the bank raised rates in December, and economists had largely expected policymakers to pause and assess the impact of that increase.

At current levels, borrowing costs in Japan stand at their highest point in roughly three decades. The central bank emphasized that it is carefully monitoring how the previous hike is filtering through the economy, while also keeping an eye on political developments that could influence fiscal policy.

In particular, uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to call a snap election next month has added another layer of complexity to the policy outlook.

Hawkish Voices Growing Within the Board

Although the headline rate decision was unanimous, internal dynamics at the BOJ suggest a gradual shift in tone. Board member Hajime Takata once again proposed a rate hike, marking the second consecutive meeting in which he has done so.

While his proposal did not gain broader support, it underscores a growing hawkish undercurrent within the central bank, signaling that the debate over further tightening is becoming more active.

Growth and Inflation Outlook Revised Higher

The BOJ’s quarterly outlook report provided clearer insight into this evolving stance. The central bank upgraded its economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, maintaining its assessment that Japan’s economy remains on track for a moderate recovery.

More notably, the BOJ revised its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 upward to 1.9%, from 1.8% previously. Officials noted that risks surrounding economic activity and price developments are now broadly balanced, a subtle but meaningful shift from earlier caution.

Wage-Price Cycle Seen as Intact

In its report, the BOJ reaffirmed its view that a positive cycle between wages and prices is gradually strengthening. According to policymakers, steady wage growth alongside moderate price increases should support a continued rise in underlying inflation over time.

The central bank also highlighted the increasing influence of currency movements on domestic prices. A weaker yen, it warned, could amplify inflationary pressures by shaping public expectations about future price trends.

Markets Focus on Governor Ueda’s Guidance

Investor attention has now turned to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference. Markets are searching for clues on the timing of the next rate hike, particularly in light of recent volatility linked to political uncertainty and rising government bond yields.

HSBC’s Chief Asia Economist Fred Neumann noted that the revised outlook reflects a clear shift toward a more hawkish narrative. According to Neumann, upward revisions to both growth and inflation expectations keep upcoming policy meetings firmly “live” for further rate increases.

Rising Bond Yields Complicate Policy Balance

At the same time, Japan’s bond market has come under pressure. Prime Minister Takaichi’s plans to expand fiscal support—alongside proposals to suspend the 8% sales tax on food—have raised concerns about increased government borrowing, pushing yields higher.

This presents a delicate challenge for the BOJ. On one hand, the bank aims to maintain hawkish communication to prevent excessive yen weakness. On the other, it must avoid triggering a sharp rise in bond yields that could undermine economic stability.

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Where Does the Current Rate Cycle Stand?

In an analysis led by BlackRock strategists Amanda Lynam and Dominique Bly, it is highlighted that the Federal Reserve has already delivered a cumulative 175 basis points of rate cuts in the current easing cycle. As a result, the policy rate is now approaching levels considered neither stimulative nor restrictive for the broader economy.

The strategists emphasize that unless there is a clear and sustained deterioration in labor market conditions, the Fed lacks a compelling justification to implement sharp additional rate cuts in 2026. This perspective reinforces the likelihood of a “wait-and-see” stance, with policymakers closely monitoring economic data before taking further action.

Market Expectations Remain Restrained

BlackRock’s outlook broadly aligns with prevailing market pricing. According to derivatives-based expectations, investors are currently anticipating only two rate cuts throughout 2026. This cautious pricing reflects a broader consensus that inflation is relatively contained while employment conditions remain resilient.

As long as inflation pressures do not reaccelerate and labor markets maintain stability, market participants appear comfortable with the notion that the Fed will avoid an overly accommodative policy stance.

According to FedWatch Tool data, markets are assigning an 84.5% probability to the policy rate remaining in the 350–375 basis point range, while a 15.5% probability is priced in for a potential cut to the 325–350 basis point range. This distribution indicates that expectations for near-term aggressive easing remain limited.

A Different Tone From the Political Front

In contrast, voices close to former President Donald Trump present a more optimistic growth narrative. Some argue that the U.S. economy could sustain growth near the 3% level, creating room for continued monetary easing. This view assumes that strong economic expansion can persist without reigniting inflationary pressures.

The “Non-Inflationary Growth” Argument

Joe Lavorgna, an advisor to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, describes the current environment as one of “non-inflationary growth.” According to Lavorgna, deregulation efforts and growth-oriented policies have encouraged capital investment and strengthened supply-side dynamics. A more robust supply capacity, he argues, can support ongoing economic expansion while simultaneously easing inflation concerns.

What This Means Going Forward

Taken together, BlackRock’s assessment suggests that 2026 may be characterized by limited and measured rate adjustments rather than a broad-based easing cycle. For investors, this reinforces the importance of aligning expectations with a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, where policy flexibility remains constrained by economic fundamentals.

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What Is Venus BUSD (vBUSD)?

Venus BUSD (vBUSD) is the interest-bearing token of the Venus Protocol, operating on Binance Smart Chain (BSC). When users deposit BUSD into Venus, they receive vBUSD in return—this token represents the liquidity they have supplied to the protocol. As interest accrues in the market, the value of vBUSD increases, allowing users to withdraw more BUSD than they initially deposited.

Because the system is fully operated through smart contracts, users can earn yield without relying on any centralized authority. Venus also enables borrowing against deposited collateral, making vBUSD both a yield-generating asset and a liquidity tool within the Venus ecosystem.

How Does Venus Protocol Work?

Venus operates as a decentralized marketplace for lending and borrowing on BNB Chain.

Users can:

• Deposit assets to earn interest

• Use those assets as collateral to borrow other tokens

All deposited funds remain in smart contracts, and users receive vTokens representing their positions. These vTokens can be redeemed at any time. While the platform is permissionless, it is not risk-free; smart contract vulnerabilities and liquidation risks exist, although the code is open-source and audited.

Key Innovations in Venus Protocol V4

Risk Management

• Isolated Pools: Each pool has independent risk parameters, preventing issues in one pool from affecting others.

• Advanced parameter controls: Collateral factors, liquidation thresholds, and borrow rates are managed more precisely.

• Risk Fund: Each isolated pool maintains a fund dedicated to covering bad debt.

Decentralization Enhancements

• A new governance framework featuring:

  • Faster VIP (Venus Improvement Proposal) execution

  • Role-based permissions

  • More granular pause mechanisms

Improved User Experience

• A redesigned UI

• More efficient reward distribution

• Support for isolated lending markets

• Upcoming features: fixed-rate borrowing and Venus Prime SBT program

Resilient Price Oracle

V4 introduces a new multi-source oracle system.
It:

• Aggregates data from multiple price feeds

• Reduces susceptibility to market manipulation

• Allows per-token oracle activation or deactivation

Isolated Pools

Isolated pools operate independently with their own risk settings.
Advantages include:

• Containing risk within each pool

• Allowing users to choose risk profiles

• Customizable reward structures for each market

E-Mode (Efficiency Mode)

A new optimization system for the BNB Chain Core Pool.

Goals:

• Improve capital efficiency for stablecoins and ETH-correlated assets

• Provide higher collateral factors and liquidation thresholds

• Offer lower liquidation penalties

Users remain in the core pool by default but can opt into an E-Mode pool for better capital efficiency.

Venus Reward Distributor

The upgraded reward mechanism enables Venus to:

• Distribute rewards per market

• Support multiple reward tokens simultaneously

• Reward both suppliers and borrowers

Users can claim rewards from any market with a single transaction.

Peg Stability Module (PSM)

The PSM is designed to maintain VAI’s peg to 1 USD, similar to MakerDAO’s DAI-PSM.

Through the PSM:

• Users can swap VAI USDT at a 1:1 rate

• Fees (feeIn / feeOut) are determined by governance

• Excess VAI is burned and fees are sent to the treasury

Conversions use oracle price data, ensuring accurate exchange rates.

Venus (vBUSD) Tokenomics

XVS Token (Governance + Staking)

Protocol Revenue Allocation (PROTOCOL_RESERVES):

• Treasury: 15%

• XVS Vault: 20%

• Venus Prime: 20%

• Risk Fund: 20%

• BNB Burn: 25%

Additional Revenue (e.g., liquidations):

• Treasury: 35%

• XVS Vault: 20%

• Risk Fund: 20%

• BNB Burn: 25%

Base XVS Vault Rewards: 308.7 XVS per day (reset every 6 months)

Token Converter

A fully on-chain automated conversion system that:

• Works autonomously

• Continuously channels protocol revenue into selected tokens

• Creates natural arbitrage opportunities

• Operates transparently on-chain

What Is Venus Prime?

Venus Prime is a new incentive model for users who stake XVS.

Features:

• Rewards come entirely from protocol revenue

• Stakers receive a Soulbound Token (SBT) that boosts reward rates

Prime Token Types

Revocable Prime Token

• Requires staking at least 1000 XVS for 90 days

• Minted after 90 days

• Burned if the staked balance drops below 1000

• Max supply: 500 (BNB Chain)

Irrevocable (OG) Prime Token

• Will be introduced in the second phase

Reward Calculation Formula

Rewards are determined using a simplified Cobb–Douglas function that considers:

• User’s staked XVS

• Borrowing/lending activity

• Market multipliers

• Protocol-wide performance metrics

Venus BUSD (vBUSD) Team

The driving force behind Venus BUSD is Joselito Lizarondo, a well-known entrepreneur in the crypto and DeFi ecosystem. Joselito entered the industry through Bitcoin mining and OTC trading before founding Swipe in 2018—a platform that enabled real-time crypto-to-fiat spending via Visa cards and quickly scaled globally, eventually leading to its acquisition by Binance in 2020.

During this period, he also launched Venus Protocol, which became one of the core lending infrastructures on BNB Chain. With extensive experience building both centralized and decentralized systems, Joselito continues to advise various projects and advocates for a future shaped by open finance and user-centric technologies.

Official Links

• Website
• X (Twitter)
• Whitepaper

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GDP Beats Forecasts

Economists had expected a growth rate of 2.5% for the second quarter. However, the U.S. economy outperformed this forecast with a 3.0% growth rate. As a reminder, the previous quarter had shown a contraction of -0.5%. This strong recovery indicates that the economy is quickly moving away from recession fears.

Economic Outlook Rebounds

The data exceeding expectations is seen as a highly positive signal for the markets. Strong growth numbers could also impact the Fed’s interest rate policies and global market dynamics. Particularly, increased investment appetite toward bitcoin, altcoin, and other risk assets seems likely.

Economists point out that this recovery is fueled by vibrant consumer spending and a strong labor market. However, high interest rates and global economic risks remain critical factors to watch in the coming period.

What Does This Mean for Markets?

This robust growth data may trigger volatility both in the U.S. dollar and cryptocurrency markets. In the short term, bitcoin, ethereum, and other digital assets that are directly influenced by macroeconomic data may enter a period of price discovery.

This content is strictly not investment advice. Crypto markets carry a high level of risk, and it is essential to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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The post The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Announced! What Does the Data Say? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bringing Inflation Down Will Take Time

According to Moynihan, the Fed’s 2% inflation target is not easily achievable. By keeping interest rates unchanged and maintaining tight monetary policy, central bank officials expect markets to cool and price pressures to ease. However, Moynihan stated that this process may take longer than expected and investors should not expect a quick rate cut.

Call for Simpler and Clearer Regulation for Banks

Moynihan said that regulation of the banking sector in the US has become too complex, making it difficult for banks to operate in a stable manner.

“Give us a regulatory framework that makes sense and make it permanent. We can’t reassure our clients for the long term because of the ever-changing rules.”

BofA CEO stated that uncertainties have increased, especially regarding money laundering (AML), customer recognition (KYC) and mandatory reporting obligations, and that they could not even explain to customers why some accounts were closed.

“Debanking” Debates between Trump and Banks

BofA and JPMorgan will lobby the White House and Congress to counter political accusations against banks by former US President Donald Trump and some Republicans.

Trump has accused big banks of closing the accounts of conservative clients and denying services to industries such as arms manufacturers and fossil fuel companies. Republicans have called this “woke capitalism,” while banks say they are not closing accounts for political reasons and that the process is driven by regulatory rules. Moynihan emphasized that this issue is not political, but is entirely dependent on banking rules.

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