Is the Bitcoin Cycle Still Alive?

While many analysts argue that growing institutional participation could end the classic halving cycle, Glassnode takes a different stance. According to the firm, Bitcoin’s current trajectory continues to show strong similarities to historical cycles.

Glassnode highlights that the latest 55-day period resembles earlier “euphoric phases,” which may indicate that the market is already in the later stages of its current cycle.

Weakening Demand and ETF Outflows

The report also points to signs of fading demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have recorded nearly $975 million in outflows over the past four trading sessions.

After hitting a fresh high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin corrected by 8.3%, trading around $113,940. As demand cools, traders appear to be shifting toward riskier altcoin positions. Open interest briefly hit a record $60 billion before correcting by $2.5 billion.

Could the Next Peak Come in October?

If Bitcoin continues to follow its historical path, Glassnode believes a new market peak could arrive as early as October. In previous cycles, particularly in 2018 and 2022, cycle tops occurred just 2–3 months after cycle lows.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted in July that if the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market could reach its peak in October — roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

Contrasting Views: Is the Cycle Over?

Not everyone agrees with Glassnode’s perspective. Some argue that large-scale BTC accumulation by public companies and strong ETF demand could disrupt the traditional 4-year rhythm.

Investor Jason Williams pointed out that the top 100 corporate treasuries now hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting this cycle may unfold differently. Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan declared that the “Bitcoin cycle is dead,” predicting the next major rally might not arrive until 2026.

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Daily trading volume rose 19% to $36.75 billion. Coinglass data shows open interest in ETH futures increased 14% to $32.61 billion, confirming growing investor confidence and market liquidity. 

BlackRock’s ETF Move 

BlackRock proposed an in-kind creation and redemption process for its spot Ethereum ETF. This follows discussions with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force. If approved, ETF shares could be directly exchanged for ETH. Analysts suggest this could push Ethereum’s price to $3,200 or even $4,000. 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital notes Ethereum closed the CME gaps between $2,530-$2,630. This range may now act as a strong support level. If ETF inflows continue, ETH could target the next gap at $2,900-$3,033, followed by $3,200. 

Abraxas Capital’s Major Investment 

Institutional investor Abraxas Capital purchased 242,652 ETH last week, investing $561 million. Arkham Intelligence data reveals the firm borrowed USDT to increase positions when ETH was at $2,460. This move drove ETH’s price up 10% to $2,700. Analysts predict such institutional buys could lift Ethereum 20% to $3,600 in the short term. 

Ethereum’s technical indicators show positive signals. According to Rekt Capital, the $2,530-$2,630 range turning into support sets the stage for higher prices. Breaking $3,200 could lead to the psychological $4,000 level. Rising ETF inflows, trading volume, and futures open interest indicate sustained investor interest. 

***NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE*** 

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Rekt Capital’s Bullish Prediction 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital paints an optimistic picture for the altcoin market. If the total market cap closes above $250 billion, it could reach $315 billion. This close could form a bottom for coins. Rekt Capital highlights that the correction is shallower than previous -69% and -85% declines. Furthermore, the $425 billion resistance level is weakening. Breaking this level could accelerate the rally. 

Bitcoin Dominance Declines 

Analyst Merlijn The Trader evaluates altcoin season expectations. A noticeable decline in Bitcoin dominance is observed, indicating capital shifting to altcoins. However, the analyst emphasizes that timing is critical. He warns investors against the risks of early rotation or buying at the peak. The right move could maximize gains. 

Willy Woo’s Insights 

On-chain analyst Willy Woo offers a different perspective. He predicts the altcoin market cap will reach $10.5 trillion by 2030. However, he claims Bitcoin dominance will exceed 90%. According to Woo, Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass $100 trillion. He notes that institutional players are leaning toward Bitcoin. For instance, companies like Metaplanet are rapidly increasing their Bitcoin reserves. Woo believes crypto venture capital will decline in favor of Bitcoin.

Ever wondered what the end game is for altcoins vs Bitcoin?

Altcoins: $10.5T
BTC: >$100T

Place your bets accordingly. Dominance will go >90%

Crypto VCs will be a thing of the past.

Buy BTC, invest in BTC infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/yuImgYx1Ep

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 12, 2025

The altcoin season presents opportunities for investors. Led by Ethereum, altcoins are rising. Bitcoin is heading toward $105,000. US-China trade deal talks are supporting this rise. Early or late moves carry risks. Investors should closely monitor market signals. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***

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Decline Signals in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Recent sharp declines in the markets have increased investors’ concerns, while analysis platform 10X Research highlighted a significant pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements.

According to analysts, Bitcoin is currently following a “Diamond Top” formation, which indicates that prices tend to drop after a growth phase. This pattern suggests that BTC may decline further and lose some of the gains it made since the November rally.

While major altcoins also suffered losses, the biggest drop was seen in Ethereum (ETH). Analysts noted that despite Eric Trump’s support for ETH, the decline was mainly driven by options gamma hedging and futures liquidations, which can cause significant price fluctuations.

Bitcoin Recovers, Why Is Ethereum Still Under Pressure?

According to analysts, after the recent selling wave, Bitcoin showed a partial recovery, but the same did not happen for Ethereum:

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

“Bitcoin exhibited a partial recovery, but this did not happen for Ethereum. Large ETH sell-offs failed to trigger the expected strong rebounds, indicating that ETH prices may still be under pressure.”

Analysts emphasized that the combination of ongoing economic uncertainty and weak technical indicators suggests that Bitcoin and altcoins could face further price declines in the short term. Investors are advised to act cautiously at this stage.

When Will the Altcoin Rally Begin?

10X Research predicts that Bitcoin and altcoins may experience further declines in the near term, while a similar forecast was made by popular analyst Rekt Capital.

Rekt Capital analyzed key trends in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and argued that the altcoin season will begin after Bitcoin Dominance reaches its 71% peak.

The analyst pointed out that historically, Bitcoin Dominance has moved within the 58-71% macro range, and each time it reached the 71% resistance level, the altcoin market saw major activity. He also suggested that during this period, altcoins could experience a 5-10% pullback

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