Weekly Trading Volume Drops by 50%

Data compiled by 10x Research shows that average weekly crypto trading volume has fallen by approximately 50%, declining to around $100 billion. Such a significant contraction signals a notable slowdown in market participation and speculative activity.

The weakness is not limited to smaller altcoins. Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest digital assets by market capitalization, are also experiencing substantial volume declines. Current weekly trading activity in Bitcoin sits roughly 47% below its historical average, while Ether’s volume is approximately 58% below its norm. This broad-based reduction suggests that the market’s core liquidity engines are losing momentum.

“Liquidity Is Gradually Leaving the Market”

Analysts at 10x Research interpret the sharp drop in volume as an indication that the recent recovery attempt may be losing steam. In their view, capital is slowly rotating out of the crypto market, reducing the depth needed to sustain strong price advances.

Low-volume environments tend to amplify fragility. Without solid participation, upward price movements can lack conviction and are more vulnerable to abrupt reversals. As a result, the current backdrop calls for increased caution, particularly for short-term traders relying on breakout scenarios.

Additional Weakness in the Ethereum Network

The report also points to declining on-chain activity within the Ethereum ecosystem. Network fees have fallen to 0.04 gwei, placing them within the lowest 4% of historical readings. Such subdued fee levels typically reflect reduced demand for block space and weaker transactional intensity.

Why the Next Two Weeks Matter

10x Research further notes a growing disconnect between macroeconomic developments and crypto market performance. This divergence may increase uncertainty and complicate short-term forecasting.

The coming one to two weeks could prove decisive. If trading volumes fail to recover, the risk of a deeper correction may rise as liquidity conditions remain thin.

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VanEck emphasizes that as markets enter 2026, predictability is beginning to outweigh ambiguity. This shift is seen as a constructive development, particularly for assets that tend to benefit from stronger risk sentiment.

Greater Visibility on Fiscal and Monetary Policy

One of the key themes in VanEck’s outlook is the gradual stabilization of the US fiscal landscape. Although budget deficits remain elevated, their ratio to GDP has declined from the extreme levels seen during the pandemic period. This trend is contributing to a more balanced long-term interest rate environment.

According to the firm, improving fiscal discipline reduces the likelihood of sudden market shocks and allows investors to plan with a clearer medium-term perspective. At the same time, a more transparent monetary policy framework is helping markets better assess future conditions, reinforcing confidence across asset classes.

A Cautious but Constructive View on Bitcoin

VanEck adopts a measured stance when addressing Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The report notes that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, long used as a reference point by investors, showed signs of breaking down in 2025. As a result, short-term signals have become less reliable, prompting a more cautious outlook over the next three to six months.

That said, the firm acknowledges differing views internally, with some executives maintaining a more optimistic perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. This divergence reflects the evolving nature of crypto market dynamics as the asset class matures.

Risk Assets Poised to Benefit

The expectation of a “risk-on” environment is generally supportive for technology stocks, artificial intelligence-related investments, and digital assets. VanEck points out that Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from traditional markets such as equities and gold suggests it is increasingly trading on its own fundamentals.

Market observers note that price advances occurring in relatively low-leverage conditions, combined with signs of recovery from oversold levels, may provide a healthier foundation for risk assets moving into 2026.

A Clearer Path for the First Half of 2026

Following the volatility seen toward the end of 2025, analysts believe the market direction for the first half of 2026 has become more defined. With US midterm elections approaching, expectations of fiscal support and favorable regulatory developments could further strengthen the macro backdrop.

Under these conditions, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin and the wider crypto market may be well positioned to regain momentum, provided broader economic stability continues to improve.

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Bitwise: A “Core Asset” for Professional Investors

The report was authored by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who emphasized that large platforms and professional allocators are now viewing Bitcoin as a “core portfolio” element. This shift comes after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their approvals on major national account platforms.

Bitwise noted that from 2017 to 2024, it received zero requests for long-term assumptions. However, in just this year alone, a dozen requests have been made—highlighting that institutional investors are no longer treating Bitcoin as a “side bet” but rather as a primary investment option.

Low Correlation and Strong Diversification

According to the preview report, Bitcoin’s expected returns, volatility, and correlations compare favorably with traditional asset classes. Bitwise defines Bitcoin’s correlation between −0.5 and 0.5, making it a low-correlation asset compared to stocks, bonds, or real estate.

For investors seeking diversification, this characteristic strengthens Bitcoin’s role in modern portfolios—alongside other assets like ethereum or even certain altcoins.

Institutional Accumulation and ETF Impact

Launched in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have quickly grown to massive scale. Today, these products manage more than $146 billion in assets and hold nearly 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

At the same time, corporations continue to accumulate BTC. Led by MicroStrategy, public company treasuries now hold 629,376 BTC—worth over $80 billion. To finance these large-scale purchases, many firms have turned to capital markets through equity and convertible debt offerings.

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Growth of Digital Assets and Market Effects

The report notes that digital assets, particularly cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, have experienced rapid growth in recent years. This growth not only increases liquidity in the markets but also encourages integration with the traditional financial system.

Impact on the Treasury Market

The report emphasizes that most stablecoins are backed by Treasury securities, which increases demand for Treasury markets. However, the contribution of digital assets to market volatility may create uncertainty regarding Treasury securities.

New Risk Factors

The Treasury Department also addresses the risks associated with the rise of digital assets. It is stated that volatility in crypto markets could threaten the value of more stable assets like Treasuries. Additionally, a shift of investors towards digital assets could reduce demand for traditional investment vehicles.

Blockchain Technology and Innovations

The report contains information on how blockchain technology can provide innovative solutions in the Treasury market. It notes that blockchain-based systems have the potential to shorten transaction times and reduce costs.

Regulation and Compliance

With the growth of digital assets, it is emphasized that regulatory frameworks need to be reassessed. The Treasury Department highlights the need for appropriate regulations to ensure the safe integration of digital assets.

Might interest you: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Latest Update – October 30

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The report states that the effects of digital assets on the Treasury market must be considered. It emphasizes that further research and analysis are needed to understand the potential and risks of digital assets in the future. This will enable investors to assess innovative opportunities while maintaining financial stability.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s report is regarded as an important step in understanding the impact of digital assets on the financial system.

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The research states that Solana’s TPS—processing hundreds of thousands of transactions per second—is 3,000% more than Ethereum’s TPS. Solana also boasts daily active users of 1,300% more than Ethereum’s and transaction fees over 5 million percent less. Especially for distributed finance (DeFi) activities including stablecoins, Solana is an appealing platform for payments and transfers because in large part to its key speed and cost efficiency advantages.

According to the paper, institutional investors have not yet completely embraced Solana even while retail investors are starting to see its ability to challenge Ethereum as a top smart contract platform. VanEck reasoned that this lag in institutional adoption could result from a taste for more established assets like Ethereum ( ETH) over the more younger Solana.

VanEck published a report clarifying Ethereum’s price standstill earlier in September 2024, attributing it on value extraction from Ethereum’s layer-2 systems. Following Ethereum’s Dencun update in March 2024, these second-layer solutions became popular and have drastically lowered transaction costs on Ethereum layer-1, therefore drastically declining Ethereum layer-1 revenue. But in recent weeks Ethereum’s network fees have somewhat recovered.

VanEck also observed that Ethereum’s problems stem from user migration to quicker layer-1 systems like Solana and Sui (SUI). Ethereum still gains from its first-mower advantage, but VanEck cautioned that this edge is fast declining in response to competition from more efficient platforms like Solana.

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