On Friday alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $103.5 million in net outflows, extending the negative streak that began the previous week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $100,000 psychological level since Nov. 13 and is currently trading around the $89,000 range.

ETF Flows Reflect Retail Risk Aversion

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are widely viewed as a proxy for retail investor behavior. The recent wave of outflows suggests not only price pressure, but a broader pullback in risk appetite. Sideways price action has so far failed to offset the ongoing capital erosion on the ETF side.

Market Sentiment Stuck in Extreme Fear

The broader crypto market shows a similar pattern. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 25, firmly within the “Extreme Fear” zone. According to Santiment, the market has entered a clear phase of uncertainty, marked by fading retail interest.

While some low-key indicators hint at a potential base-building process, the timing of any recovery remains unclear.

Metals Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind

On the macro front, a notable divergence is emerging. The Bitcoin Layer founder Nik Bhatia argues that strong rallies in gold and silver are weighing on Bitcoin sentiment. According to Bhatia, being sidelined from the metals rally has pushed investor psychology toward post-FTX bear-market vibes.

Although he remains long-term bullish, Bhatia cautions that the current environment is painful and patience-testing, dominated by fear rather than conviction.

ETF outflows now represent more than short-term price pressure. As social interest fades and capital continues to exit, the risk of a delayed trend reversal remains elevated.

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Whales Are Back

According to Santiment, large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have collectively accumulated 32,693 BTC since January 10. This represents a 0.24% increase in their holdings and marks the highest accumulation level in two months.

Meanwhile, micro investors holding less than 0.01 BTC have sold a total of 149 BTC over the same period, reducing their balances by 0.30%. This divergence—whales buying steadily while small investors exit—is a key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Retail Hesitant, Whales Steady

Santiment notes that retail investors remain skeptical of the mini-rally, while whales’ consistent accumulation creates favorable conditions for a bull market scenario.

Market sentiment paints an interesting picture: although prices are rising, negative social media comments have reached a 10-day high. Retail caution persists, a familiar pattern for experienced traders.

BTC Derivatives Support the Rally

Derivatives data also reinforce this steady rise. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights that the Bitcoin Position Index climbed to 3.5 this week, surpassing a critical level not seen since October. Open positions and funding rates indicate that the surge is steady rather than sudden.

Crucially:

• Open positions and funding rates remain moderate.

• This rally is more organic than past “pump-and-dump” episodes.

• The market interprets it as a controlled return of risk appetite.

In short, while Bitcoin consolidates near the $98K mark, the real story unfolds on-chain. All eyes are now on when this whale-driven accumulation phase will push BTC toward the $100,000 psychological level.

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Market Analysis and Historical Parallels

Cowen evaluates Bitcoin’s decline through the lens of the four-year cycle theory and macroeconomic factors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter following halving events. Previous cycles in 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle confirm this trend. However, Cowen highlights that this cycle is also influenced by macro conditions similar to 2019.

According to Cowen, the return-on-investment (ROI) curve from the bottom mirrors prior cycles. The 2016–2017 cycle lasted roughly 1,067 days, 2020–2021 about 1,059 days, and the current cycle around 1,062 days, showing Bitcoin’s cyclicality and historical price behavior remain relevant.

Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average

Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s inability to stay above its 50-week moving average (~$103,000) for several weeks would signal a key market pattern. Historically, similar behavior marked the 2021 peak.

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Retail Investor Apathy

Cowen highlights that the lack of an altcoin season underscores reduced retail participation. Social interest and investor behavior mirror the 2019 scenario, suggesting patience is crucial.

He also recalls that BTC peaked near the end of monetary tightening in 2019, followed by a weak period. Today, high interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and even if rates start falling, Bitcoin may not experience an immediate rebound.

Long-Term Opportunities

By analyzing past cycles, Cowen points out that patient investors often profit in bear markets. For example, early investors in the 2017 and 2021 cycles gained significant long-term returns despite missing short-term peaks. Similarly, investors who remain patient toward 2026 may find opportunities in Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin vs Gold: Value Gap Analysis 

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin is trading below its value relative to gold when adjusted for volatility. Analysts mark a Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio below 2.0 as an indicator, currently showing that Bitcoin consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. 

This implies that Bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to grow approximately 42% to match the roughly $6 trillion invested in gold. Theoretically, this supports a BTC price of $165,000. 

Analysts also note that BTC has dropped from an overvalued $36,000 at the end of 2024 to an undervalued $46,000 relative to gold-adjusted volatility levels. 

Role of Retail Investors and ETFs 

Interest in Bitcoin and gold ETFs by retail investors has driven the value-drag trade since late 2024. Investors, particularly in emerging markets, are turning to alternative stores of value due to government deficits, inflation, and geopolitical risks. 

• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows rose at the start of 2025. 
• In August, BTC ETF inflows slowed, while gold ETF inflows accelerated. 
• Institutional investors using CME futures lagged behind ETF inflows. 
• This indicates retail investor trends are stronger in the value-drag trade. 

Market Outlook and Price Expectation 

Although gold prices have risen in recent weeks, analysts find Bitcoin relatively more attractive. In August, JPMorgan analysts had forecasted a $126,000 year-end target, updating it to $165,000 considering gold movements. 

JPMorgan’s forecast aligns with several other firms and analysts, some of whom project BTC could reach $200,000 by year-end. Bitcoin is currently trading around $119,500. 

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Instead, demand is being driven by institutions. For the first time ever, spot BTC ETFs recorded over $1 billion in inflows on two consecutive days.

Institutional Inflows Take the Lead

Bitwise’s Head of Research, André Dragosch, emphasized in a recent post that this latest rally is led by institutional capital. Google Trends data supports this, showing just an 8% increase in searches for “Bitcoin” compared to a 60% surge in November 2024.

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Analysts suggest that retail investors may believe they’ve already missed the opportunity to buy. As Lindsay Stamp commented, many see Bitcoin at $117K and assume it’s too late to enter the market.

Onchain Data Suggests Institutional Dominance

ETF data confirms this new narrative. According to Farside Investors, spot BTC ETFs saw a $2.72 billion inflow over the past five trading days. Analyst Willy Woo remains optimistic, claiming the rally has “plenty of legs left.”

With institutional actors leading the charge, the structure of the crypto market could be undergoing a fundamental shift — one where retail plays a smaller role than ever before.

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Key Features of G-Token 

• Investment Token Nature: G-Token is not a cryptocurrency but an investment token traded on licensed digital asset exchanges. 
• Market Test Objective: The ministry designed the initial 5 billion baht issuance to test the market and gauge investor interest. 
• Easy Access: Retail investors can invest in government bonds with as little as 100 baht. 
• High Returns: The token offers returns surpassing the 1.25-1.5% interest rates of bank deposits. 
• Security and Liquidity: Backed by the government, G-Token complies with Bank of Thailand regulations, ensuring high security. It also provides liquidity through trading on digital exchanges. 

Advantages G-Token Offers to Investors 

G-Token provides an accessible option for individual investors, with a low entry point of 100 baht. Additionally, the tokens can be bought and sold on licensed digital exchanges, offering liquidity and flexibility. Government backing and Bank of Thailand regulations ensure high security. Supported by blockchain technology, G-Token strengthens Thailand’s digital finance vision. Moreover, tokenized government bonds allow small investors to participate with as little as $3. 

Thailand’s Crypto and Digital Finance Moves 

Thailand is gaining attention with its crypto-friendly policies. Last year, it introduced tax exemptions for crypto gains. The Securities and Exchange Commission added USDC and USDT stablecoins to the approved crypto list. In summary, these steps support Thailand’s goal of leading in the digital economy. The country previously relaxed regulations for digital assets and became the second Asian nation to approve a Bitcoin ETF. 

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According to Binance, the number of wallets holding $100 or more in Bitcoin increased from 24 million in January 2024 to nearly 30 million in 2025, representing a 25% annual growth rate.

Binance’s blog stated:

“This trend indicates that new participants are entering the market and that interest in cryptocurrencies is on the rise once again.”

An increase in such wallet numbers is typically observed during bull runs, such as in 2017 and 2021. A similar surge was seen in mid-2024 when Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 level.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accelerated institutional adoption. By the end of 2024, ETFs held a total of 1.25 million BTC, with IBIT amassing assets worth over $50 billion.

Hashrate Reaches All-Time High

The security of the Bitcoin network has reached a historic peak, with the hashrate surpassing 800 EH/s, a 33% increase from last year’s 600 EH/s level.

Binance’s blog highlighted:

“Bitcoin’s hashrate has outpaced the combined computing power of tech giants like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. These platforms collectively account for less than 1% of the Bitcoin network’s capacity.”

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Hashrate measures the computational power used to process and secure Bitcoin transactions. A higher hashrate makes the network more secure and resistant to attacks. It also reflects strong mining activity and high confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

86% of Bitcoin Holders Are in Profit!

Market sentiment remains strong, with 86% of circulating Bitcoin currently in profit, according to CryptoQuant. Accumulation addresses continue to buy Bitcoin at a record monthly pace of 495,000 BTC.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasized differences in Bitcoin investor behavior. On X (formerly Twitter), he shared:
“Retail investors holding less than 1 BTC are selling, while those holding 1 BTC or more are buying.”

Ju believes the Bitcoin bull market is in its final stages. He describes the current cycle as being in the “early distribution phase,” where new retail participants are entering the market while institutional interest remains strong.

Preparing for a New Cycle

Ju observed a different pattern in this cycle:

• OG retail investors and whales are transferring Bitcoin to new retail participants and institutional investors.
• Institutional players are holding “paper Bitcoin” through ETFs and company shares.
• The final distribution phase is expected to be largely retail-dominated, occurring around mid-2025 or later in the year.

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