Risk perception across global markets has clearly intensified in recent days. During Asian trading hours, spot gold climbed 0.7 percent to $5,368 per ounce. Prices had already reached their highest level in more than four weeks in the previous session and maintained upward momentum into the new trading day. Meanwhile, U.S. April gold futures rose 1.5 percent to around $5,391.90 per ounce.

How Much Is Gram Gold Today?

The rise in international gold prices has also affected domestic markets in Türkiye. Combined with exchange-rate effects, gold prices in the local market moved upward as well.

As of the morning of March 3, 2026, gram gold is trading around 7,590 Turkish lira, up approximately 0.7 percent. As long as geopolitical risk pricing continues in global markets, volatility in gram gold prices may also persist.

Market analysts note that safe-haven demand could strengthen further if the conflict expands. During periods of uncertainty, gold often becomes one of the first assets investors turn to.

Why Are Gold Prices Rising?

Several key factors are driving the latest surge in gold prices. First, escalating military tensions in the Middle East have significantly increased risk perception in global markets.

Second, investor demand for safe-haven assets has risen sharply. In times of uncertainty, portfolios often shift part of their allocation toward gold.

Another major factor comes from the energy market. Rising oil prices are bringing global inflation concerns back into focus. When inflation expectations increase, gold typically gains demand as a hedge.

Why Are Oil Prices Increasing?

The main driver behind the rise in oil prices is developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian media reports, a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the strait had been closed and warned that ships attempting to pass through the area could be targeted.

This statement triggered serious concerns in energy markets. Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through this strategic waterway.

While a full disruption has not yet occurred, markets often price potential risks rather than confirmed events. The upward pressure on oil prices reflects exactly this scenario.

What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

This is currently the most critical scenario discussed in energy markets. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly disrupt global oil supply.

According to experts, such a scenario could lead to rapid and sharp increases in oil prices, as this route is one of the most important transit points for global energy shipments.

For this reason, energy markets are closely watching not only the military developments but also potential disruptions in maritime trade.

Why Isn’t Gold Falling While the Dollar Is Strong?

Under normal market conditions, a stronger U.S. dollar tends to put pressure on gold prices. When the dollar gains value, gold becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

However, this relationship often shifts during geopolitical crises.

The U.S. dollar index has remained near a five-week high, while gold prices have continued to climb at the same time. This suggests a classic safe-haven reaction in financial markets. Investors are moving toward both the dollar and gold simultaneously.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that gold’s rise despite the strong dollar highlights the level of geopolitical risk currently priced into markets. According to him, higher oil prices and potential disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push global inflation concerns back to the forefront.

Trump Signals New Wave of Attacks

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran would continue “for as long as necessary.” He also warned that a new and larger wave of attacks could occur soon, although he did not provide specific operational details.

The conflict is already affecting more than just military dynamics. Civilian casualties have been reported in Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. Global air travel has faced disruptions, and maritime trade in the region has slowed significantly. Shipping activity near the Strait of Hormuz has declined notably.

Other Precious Metals Also Move Higher

Rising geopolitical tensions have not only affected gold but also other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 1.4 percent to $90.67 per ounce, reaching its highest level in four weeks.

Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $2,316.50, while palladium gained 1.6 percent to $1,795.08.

Global markets will likely focus on three major developments in the coming days: whether the conflict in the Middle East expands, the status of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of energy prices on global inflation.

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U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sent Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 375 points, oil prices up 8%, and gold futures up 1.6%. Traders remain on edge amid geopolitical tensions and worries about potential supply disruptions.

Equity Futures Slip and Safe‑Haven Shift

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 375 points (‑0.77%), the S&P 500 fell 0.74%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.85%. Gold futures climbed 1.6% as investors sought safety.

Today, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $5,278/oz, while spot silver (XAG/USD) is near $95/oz. These moves reflect flight‑to‑safety demand as traders price in escalating risk.

Barclays strategist Ajay Rajadhyaksha sees the risk of a prolonged conflict higher than in 2024–2025, noting that habitual quick de‑escalation trading models may be premature for dip buying.

Oil Market Uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz Risk

U.S. crude prices jumped roughly 8% in early trading on fears that wider conflict could disrupt global supply. Iran remains the fourth‑largest OPEC producer, and leadership ambiguity persists.

A prolonged stoppage at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for crude flows, could reverberate through global energy markets and reignite inflation pressures. Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi‑Asset at Janus Henderson, said rising uncertainty dampens investor confidence and adds pressure on risk assets; extended uncertainty and higher oil could fuel inflation fears.

AI Sector Volatility Adds to Geopolitical Strain

The equity market was already fragile before the conflict. The S&P 500 closed February in the red, as investors questioned whether rapid AI adoption might disrupt traditional software business models. Rising automation and layoff concerns add to broader economic anxieties.

Citi strategists say short‑term impacts may be limited, but extended friction can’t be ruled out. The reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could amplify long‑term economic drag when coupled with AI‑driven business model shifts. The promise of efficiency takes a back seat under the shadow of geopolitical turmoil.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How did the U.S.–Iran clash affect equity futures?
A: Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures fell by roughly 0.7–0.85% as investors rotated into safe havens.

Q: Why did oil prices rise?
A: Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and Middle East uncertainty raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing oil up about 8%.

Q: How did gold react?
A: Gold futures rose 1.6% as traders sought safe‑haven assets amid risk aversion.

Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz significant?
A: The strait is a critical global oil transit point; long‑term disruptions could trigger broader energy market volatility and inflationary pressures.

Q: How does Hamaney’s death affect markets?
A: Beyond short‑term swings, coupled with AI‑linked economic shifts, it may heighten prolonged friction in markets.

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Why it matters?

The growing gap between gold and Bitcoin highlights a shift in investor behavior during periods of macro uncertainty. Similar divergences in the past have often preceded changes in risk appetite across global markets.

Gold Strength Supported by Rates, ETFs, and Central Banks

Gold’s rally has been underpinned by several macro factors. The US dollar slipped to a two-month low during the Asian session, providing additional support for bullion. Markets are currently pricing in a 76% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in January, further boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets.

According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month of the year except May. Central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to reinforce demand. As interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, keeping investor interest elevated.

Bitcoin Under Pressure After Liquidations

Bitcoin remains under selling pressure following an hour-long liquidation event that wiped out nearly $200 million in long positions on Monday. The asset is still trading roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,210, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment.

While gold tends to benefit from uncertainty, Bitcoin often trades more like a risk asset. During periods of heightened caution, capital flows typically favor stability over volatility, limiting upside momentum for cryptocurrencies.

Technical Signals Draw Market Attention

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has not gone unnoticed by analysts. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index against gold has fallen below 30, a level reached only a handful of times historically. Analysts note that previous occurrences often aligned with market bottoms, though outcomes have varied depending on macro conditions.

The BTC/Gold pair is also testing a long-term ascending support line that has held since 2019. The current Z-Score sits near -1.76, placing the ratio in oversold territory. Still, analysts caution that technical patterns alone are not enough to predict a reversal, especially with inflation remaining above target levels globally.

Liquidity Levels Shape Short-Term Outlook

Bitcoin’s liquidation map highlights key price zones that could influence near-term volatility.

• Approximately $740 million in liquidity sits above the market near the $92,113 level.
• Around $175 million in liquidity is positioned below price near $87,112.

This imbalance suggests that upside moves could trigger larger liquidation cascades. However, sustained momentum will likely depend on spot market demand rather than derivatives activity alone.

On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals

On-chain indicators reveal continued spot selling on Binance and Coinbase over recent days. While Coinbase briefly showed signs of net buying, traders are watching closely to see whether daily closes confirm a shift in behavior. Binance, meanwhile, has recorded spot selling for eleven consecutive days.

ETF-driven inflows previously supported Bitcoin’s price action. However, data suggests that some of these coins have been redistributed via Binance, making renewed spot demand on the exchange a key factor for price stability.

Macro Data Could Influence Market Direction

Markets are now focused on upcoming US labor data following a six-week government shutdown. Economists expect a modest 50,000 increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, pointing to a cooling but resilient labor market.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson notes that even moderate weakness in the data could strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Although the Fed recently reduced rates by 25 basis points and signaled a potential pause, officials have emphasized that current inflation levels do not reflect deeper structural pressure.

For now, gold continues to benefit from caution and uncertainty. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Whether the gap between the two assets narrows will depend on how quickly investor confidence returns to higher-risk markets

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Although US stock markets opened with declines, losses were quickly recovered. Oil and gold prices initially rose but then fell back. The global MSCI index only dropped by 0.12%. Safe-haven assets showed mixed performance: the Japanese yen lost 0.64% against the dollar, while gold prices slightly decreased. Experts attribute the market calmness to expectations that the military intervention will not be prolonged. The Trump administration is keeping its military actions against Iran limited and deterrent. The prevailing belief is that the regional conflict will not escalate. 

Geopolitical Risks Are Controlled by Markets 

According to Dan Ives from Wedbush, the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat is positive for the market. At this stage, the possibility of the Iran-Israel conflict turning into a regional war is considered low. Therefore, markets are not panicking. 

Peter Boockvar, investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, states that market stability will be maintained if Iran ends its military nuclear program. Iran is not expected to take actions that would disrupt global oil supply. Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, says Trump does not want gas prices to remain above $4. It is also predicted that Trump will continue to pressure Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. 

Iran’s Countermeasures and the Strait of Hormuz Risk 

Despite Iran’s parliament deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns remain limited. Experts emphasize that the likelihood of Iran implementing this threat is low. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy says Iran’s countermeasures will be limited. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices would surge above $100, panic would ensue in markets, and stocks could fall more than 10%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely. 

In the past, Iran has made similar threats but did not close the strait. Papic notes that Iran is aware of the heavy retaliation that would come from the US. 

Three Possible Scenarios for Oil Prices According to Analysts 

• Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats outlines three scenarios shaping oil prices: 
• Oil flow continues uninterrupted, Brent crude falls to around $60. 
• Iran’s oil exports decline significantly, eliminating global oversupply, prices hover between $75-80. 
• Expanded conflict threatens Gulf oil exports, prices could rise to $140 as in 2022. 
• Whether price movements are temporary or permanent is critical. Recently, WTI oil prices rose by 10%, Brent crude by 18%. 

Long-Term Positive Outlook for US Stocks 

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, states that geopolitical developments will not change the long-term upward trend of US stock markets. Trump’s limited military intervention increases market confidence. Yardeni suggests the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites could create structural changes in the Middle East. Short-term uncertainty and volatility are possible, but market confidence could strengthen over time. 

The expectation that Iran will respond limitedly and that the conflict can be controlled keeps investors cautiously optimistic. 

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Gold also reached a new record high as investors sought safe-haven assets, with its price hitting $3,433. The crypto market showed signs of recovery with strong buying momentum after last week’s turbulence. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has started a new uptrend by holding above $104,400. As a result, investors continued to turn toward risk assets ahead of the critical FOMC decision. 

FOMC and BoJ Decisions to Shape Market Direction 

JPMorgan analysts reminded that Iran controls 3.5% of global oil supply. The potential for Brent oil to reach $130 per barrel has raised expectations of a new wave of inflation in the markets. If this level is reached, U.S. inflation could hit 5%, possibly delaying the Fed’s rate cut plans. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made cautious remarks about interest rate cuts. Powell refused to take hasty action, considering that Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher. Still, 40% of investors in the futures market expect two rate cuts by the end of the year. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering postponing its rate hike to Q1 2025 due to problems in the bond market. According to Reuters, BoJ plans to maintain tight monetary policy during this period. 

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and $130 Oil Scenario Shake the Markets 

Some analysts at JPMorgan reiterated Iran’s 3.5% share in global oil supply. Combined with geopolitical risks, they forecast oil prices could exceed $130 per barrel. Such an increase could push U.S. consumer inflation close to 5%. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that this scenario would significantly delay the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts. 

Experts also defined the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the most severe geopolitical scenario. Iran could use its dominance over the strait to disrupt global energy supply. 

Bitcoin continues to stay resilient amid all these developments. Investors are still in search of safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. BTC’s trading volume rose 14%, surpassing $40.5 billion, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity. 

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Bank of America (BofA), in its analysis note dated June 13, stated that the price of gold could reach $4,000 within the next 12 months. This forecast is above the current projections from Wall Street. The bank highlighted that rising concerns over the financial stability of the U.S., interest rate volatility, and a weakening dollar are supporting this rise. 

According to BofA, increasing market uncertainty and unsustainable levels of public debt are driving demand for gold. 

“Fluctuations in interest rates and a weak U.S. dollar will keep gold prices strong, especially if the Treasury or Fed needs to support the market.” 

Central Banks and Geopolitical Risks Support Gold 

Positive expectations for gold are not limited to BofA. Goldman Sachs predicts gold will reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. This forecast is supported by structural central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. 

“Interest rate volatility and geopolitical risks are positive factors for gold. The weakening U.S. dollar also increases gold’s value among investors.” (Bloomberg Markets, June 2025) 

In recent weeks, escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran have driven investors towards safe havens. Due to these developments, gold has approached the $3,500 level, gaining more than 30% since the beginning of the year. 

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Research report states: 

“Expansionary monetary policies by central banks and global geopolitical uncertainties are driving gold prices higher. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar further enhances gold’s appeal.” 

Additionally, inflation data released in the U.S. also supported gold. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.6% year-over-year in May. Core PPI fell to 3%, strengthening expectations for Fed rate cuts. This situation makes gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation. 

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This expansion, conducted through Ethereum’s Layer-2 solution, Base, further deepens the integration of the crypto ecosystem with the traditional financial sector. Franklin Templeton aims to utilize blockchain’s security and speed advantages to manage investors’ funds more effectively. This move has the potential to attract not only the crypto world but also the attention of institutional investors.

This development increasingly blurs the boundaries between crypto and traditional finance. Ethereum blockchain, now suitable not only for digital assets and trading but also for traditional financial instruments like money market funds, presents a new infrastructure. Franklin Templeton’s move could signal the emergence of new paradigms in the digital financial ecosystem.

Might interest you: Who Could Replace Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman?

With Coinbase’s Base solution, transactions on the Ethereum network become faster, cheaper, and more transparent, allowing investors to escape high transaction fees and delays. This development has the potential to increase demand for safe-haven assets and boost interest in crypto assets. Franklin Templeton’s transition to blockchain could solidify digital finance as a key component not only for the future but also in the present financial landscape.

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