Whales Move to Take Profits

Large Bitcoin holders—often referred to as “whales”—have recently begun reducing their positions after a period of accumulation. This group, typically defined as wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, plays a significant role in shaping market trends due to the scale of their transactions.

Data shows that these investors accumulated substantial amounts of Bitcoin between February 23 and March 3, when prices were trading in the range of $62,900 to $69,600. However, when Bitcoin later climbed above $70,000 and briefly approached the $74,000 level, many of these large holders started locking in profits.

Since that point, whales have reportedly sold approximately 66% of the Bitcoin they had recently accumulated, suggesting a shift in market sentiment among major investors.

Retail Investors Increase Accumulation

While large holders were selling into the rally, smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Retail participants—defined as wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC—have been steadily increasing their holdings as prices dipped below the $70,000 threshold.

This divergence between retail buying and whale selling has historically been viewed as a warning sign in cryptocurrency markets. When smaller investors accumulate during periods of large-scale profit-taking by whales, it often indicates that a broader market correction may still be underway.

Bitcoin Trades Near the $68,000 Level

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,984. The recent price decline has also affected overall market sentiment.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped by six points following the latest pullback, falling to a reading of 12. This level places the market firmly within the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Key Support Zone Around $67K–$68K

Some analysts have identified the $67,000 to $68,000 range as a crucial short-term support level for Bitcoin. If the price fails to hold within this zone, the market could revisit previous lows in search of liquidity before any meaningful recovery begins.

Temporary declines followed by rebounds are not uncommon during volatile market cycles, especially in periods of heightened uncertainty.

Significant Outflows From Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The price decline has also coincided with notable capital outflows from U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Across 11 ETF products, net outflows reached approximately $348.9 million in a single day.

This marked the largest daily withdrawal from these investment vehicles in roughly three weeks, suggesting that institutional investors may also be adopting a more cautious stance toward the market.

$60,000 Could Act as a Strong Floor

Bitcoin previously dropped to around $60,000 on February 6 during the broader correction that followed its record high of $126,000 reached in October. After touching that level, the market managed to stage a modest rebound.

Some economists believe the $60,000 level could serve as a significant support zone for the time being. Certain valuation models that compare Bitcoin’s price to network value metrics suggest this area has historically aligned with market bottoms.

Although the long-term outlook remains uncertain, many market participants continue to monitor whale activity, investor sentiment, and institutional flows to determine whether the current correction has reached its final stage.

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Altcoin Rally: Why Social Interest Matters in Crypto

Unlike traditional asset classes, cryptocurrencies are highly sentiment-driven. Narratives, trends, and collective expectations frequently shape capital flows. When enthusiasm peaks and everyone is discussing the same bullish theme, markets often become overcrowded, increasing the probability of corrections.

Conversely, when conversations around a major theme fade dramatically, it can signal exhaustion and capitulation among participants. The near disappearance of “altseason” discussions suggests that expectations for a broad-based altcoin surge have weakened considerably. Historically, similar periods of silence have preceded substantial upward moves in the altcoin market.

Altseason at Rock Bottom: A Strong Buy Signal?

In financial markets, contrarian indicators play a crucial role. When the crowd leans too heavily in one direction, price movements often surprise in the opposite direction. Excessive optimism frequently aligns with local tops, while deep pessimism can coincide with market bottoms.

Current data shows that social engagement around altcoin season has reached extremely depressed levels. In previous cycles, comparable drops in attention were observed shortly before major altcoin rallies began. While this pattern does not guarantee a repeat performance, it has historically functioned as a strong early signal of renewed upside momentum.

Market Psychology and the Road Ahead

The present landscape suggests that investor confidence in the altcoin narrative has weakened. Risk appetite appears subdued, and many market participants may be sidelined. However, crypto markets are known for initiating powerful moves precisely when expectations are minimal.

The sharp decline in altcoin rally discussions across social platforms highlights a potential inflection point. Whether this contrarian signal translates into a sustained rally will ultimately depend on broader liquidity conditions and capital rotation within the market. Still, history suggests that when the conversation goes quiet, significant moves are often not far behind.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Bitcoin Long-Term Technical Levels Signal Caution

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has now closed below its 100-week moving average for three consecutive weeks and has remained under this critical trend line for 13 straight days. Historically, this level has acted as a key demarcation between bullish and bearish market phases.

Looking at previous market cycles, Bitcoin has spent an average of 267 days below the 100-week moving average during prolonged downturns. The shortest deviation occurred during the March 2020 pandemic-driven crash, when prices recovered after roughly 34 days. While the current situation does not rule out a temporary rebound, historical patterns suggest that extended consolidation below this level is more probable than a swift recovery.

Rising Share of Investors in Loss

On-chain data further reinforces the cautious outlook. The proportion of Bitcoin supply currently held at a loss has increased significantly, reaching levels typically observed only during deep bear market phases. Similar conditions were recorded near cycle lows in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

Although some analysts view these environments as long-term accumulation opportunities for patient investors, the growing share of unrealized losses also indicates that short-term selling pressure may remain elevated.

Persistent Selling Pressure Limits Upside

Market participants note that ongoing distribution has made it difficult for Bitcoin to establish a sustained upward trend. Without a clear improvement in demand dynamics, leveraged moves or sharp relief rallies are likely to remain limited. Analysts emphasize that a healthier market structure is needed before large-scale buyers return with conviction.

Volume Spike Fuels Bottom Speculation

During the recent decline toward the $60,000 level, trading volume surged to one of its highest readings since the 2022 market bottom. Historically, such volume spikes have often coincided with major inflection points, raising questions about whether the $60,000 area could represent a potential local bottom.

Bitcoin $70,000 Level Lost Again

Bitcoin briefly attempted to reclaim the $70,000 level earlier in the week but failed twice, slipping back toward $69,000 during the Asian trading session. Following the sharp drop to $60,000 on Friday, BTC has entered a period of sideways movement and now trades approximately 44% below its recent peak. Overall, current conditions suggest that downside risks remain firmly in play in the near term.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Social Media Sentiment Turns Deeply Negative

One of the most striking developments in the current market cycle is the overwhelming negativity across social media platforms. Investor discussions are heavily skewed toward fear-driven narratives, with bearish commentary significantly outweighing optimistic expectations. From a behavioral finance perspective, this imbalance is noteworthy.

Market psychology has long shown that extreme consensus in one direction often emerges near inflection points. When fear becomes widespread and dominant, selling pressure may already be exhausted. As a result, sentiment metrics at these levels are often interpreted as contrarian indicators rather than confirmation of further downside.

Fear & Greed Index Signals Heightened Caution

Broader sentiment data supports this view. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dropped to 20, placing the market firmly in the “Extreme Fear” category. Just one day earlier, the index fell to 16, marking its lowest reading of 2026 and the weakest sentiment level since mid-December.

After briefly stabilizing in the “Fear” zone throughout late January, the index has once again slipped into extreme territory. This shift reflects rising risk aversion among market participants, typically driven by short-term price weakness and macro uncertainty.

Crypto Price Action Reinforces Market Anxiety

These sentiment readings coincide with a notable pullback in major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has declined nearly 7% over the past seven days, while Ethereum has fallen by more than 9%. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $83,950, and Ethereum is hovering near $2,690.

Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim the psychologically important $100,000 level since mid-November has fueled speculation about whether the market has entered a broader bearish phase. However, price consolidation below key resistance does not necessarily invalidate the longer-term trend.

Long-Term Signals Remain Constructive for Crypto

Despite near-term uncertainty, several structural indicators suggest that the current downturn in sentiment may be temporary. Expectations of a rapid capital rotation from traditional safe havens such as gold and silver into crypto appear premature, but this does not undermine the broader adoption trajectory.

Notably, traditional financial institutions continue to expand their involvement in digital assets. Increased hiring and infrastructure investment by major legacy players indicate that long-term confidence in the sector remains intact. From this perspective, today’s extreme fear may represent a pause within a much larger growth cycle rather than a definitive trend reversal.

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When the Crowd Calls the Bottom, Caution Is Warranted

In its weekend report, Santiment emphasized that moments of broad agreement among investors rarely align with actual market lows. According to the firm, if large groups of traders begin labeling a price level as the bottom, it may be a sign to stay alert rather than celebrate. Historically, true bottoms tend to form when the majority expects prices to continue falling, not stabilizing.

This warning gains significance as Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $95,000 level, prompting a wave of “the bottom is in” comments across social platforms. Santiment notes that similar waves of optimism in the past have often been followed by renewed downward pressure.

Bitcoin Sentiment Hits a One-Month Low

Despite increasing calls that the dip is over, several well-known market participants remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee continue to predict that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before the end of the year.

Nonetheless, Santiment’s sentiment indicators point to a different short-term trend. Positive commentary surrounding Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level in a month, even as Bitcoin’s share of overall crypto discussion has climbed above 40%. This combination suggests elevated fear across the market. During the recent correction, social media users heavily focused on allegations that MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor was selling Bitcoin—a claim that surged so rapidly online that “Saylor” became a dominant keyword.

Are ETF Outflows Signaling a Crypto Bottom?

Saylor later addressed the rumors directly in a CNBC interview, stating clearly that his company has not sold any Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Santiment highlights another potential indicator worth watching: the sharp rise in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Historical trends suggest that large ETF inflows often accompany short-term tops, while heavy outflows have frequently aligned with market bottoms driven by panic selling. Over the last three trading days, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined outflow of $1.17 billion. Thursday’s $866 million in net outflows was the second-largest daily total since late February, when $1.14 billion exited the market.

As these conflicting signals unfold—optimistic long-term forecasts, fearful sentiment data, and notable ETF withdrawals—investors continue to monitor the market for clues about Bitcoin’s next major move.

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Fear in the Market Could Set the Stage for a Rally

According to Santiment’s latest data, overall investor sentiment has dropped sharply. Historically, such conditions often signal the final stages of a market downturn, as “weak hands” exit and “diamond-handed” investors step in to buy at discounted prices.

The firm noted that social media discussions around Bitcoin are now evenly split between bullish and bearish tones, while Ethereum has around 50% more positive mentions than negative ones — a relatively low margin compared to previous periods. Meanwhile, XRP is experiencing one of its most fearful sentiment phases of 2025, with less than half of the comments reflecting optimism.

Extreme Fear Index and Weak Hands Selling

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently plunged to 15 out of 100, marking an “extreme fear” zone — its lowest reading since March. Joe Consorti, Head of Bitcoin Growth at Horizon Protocol, compared the current atmosphere to late 2022, when Bitcoin traded near $18,000.

However, Santiment interprets this fear-driven market as a potentially bullish setup. The firm argues that widespread pessimism usually indicates that the market is approaching capitulation. “When the crowd turns negative on major crypto assets, large stakeholders step in to scoop up undervalued coins — often igniting the next leg upward,” Santiment explained.

Long-Term Holders Take the Stage

Samson Mow, founder of Bitcoin infrastructure company Jan3, echoed similar thoughts. According to Mow, most of the current selling pressure comes from investors who entered the market over the past 12 to 18 months and are taking profits out of fear that the cycle has peaked.

“These are not long-term believers in Bitcoin,” Mow said, describing them as short-term speculators reacting to headlines. He added that as this cohort of sellers diminishes, conviction-driven holders are taking control of the market — a healthy sign for the long term.

“This is always the ideal outcome,” Mow stated. “The speculators are gone, and strong hands are holding. 2026 is shaping up to be an incredible year. Plan accordingly.”

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Social Media Interest Makes a Difference

According to Santiment’s data, investor enthusiasm and “greed” levels for Bitcoin spiked exactly as BTC reached its new all-time high. In contrast, Ethereum received far less social media hype. Santiment noted that this lack of excessive interest could provide a healthier foundation for ETH’s price growth.

The ETH/BTC ratio has surged 32.9% over the last 30 days, showcasing Ethereum’s relative strength.

Price Action: Pullbacks After Record Highs

Last week, Bitcoin reached $124,128, setting a new all-time high (ATH). However, it quickly retraced by 5.1%, falling back to $117,939.

Ethereum, on the other hand, came close to retesting its 2021 peak of $4,878 but fell just 1.94% short before pulling back to $4,448.

Expert Predictions for Ethereum

With institutional adoption accelerating and stablecoin usage on the rise, analysts have been revising their targets for Ethereum.

• Crypto trader Yashasedu suggested that if Bitcoin climbs to $150,000, ETH could reach as high as $8,656 based on past bull market patterns.

• Standard Chartered has also raised its 2025 Ethereum price forecast from $4,000 to $7,500.

According to Santiment, while Bitcoin faces short-term selling pressure due to overly bullish sentiment, Ethereum’s more moderate hype could be a sign of a healthier market structure. This divergence may allow ETH to outperform BTC in the coming months.

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What Is Social Dominance?

According to Santiment, when a crypto asset takes up an excessive share of social media mentions—an explosion in social dominance—it typically reflects that investors are in a state of high “euphoria”. The analytics platform notes that the ETH/BTC ratio has surged nearly 70% since early May, accompanied by this unusual rise in social dominance levels. Such crowded buying activity may be seen as a red flag.

How Should the Market Be Evaluated?

Historically, when ETH’s social dominance peaked, price corrections often followed. According to Santiment, this indicates that the majority has entered a phase of speculative excitement, and the buyer pool is narrowing — in other words, the ability to sustain upward price movement with new entrants is diminishing. Nevertheless, memecoin social dominance remains at low levels. Santiment notes that true market tops are often marked by widespread speculative hype around meme coins. The absence of such activity for now could hint that the ETH rally is not yet over.

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Institutional interest is also growing. Companies like SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion have been buying ETH, and according to Santiment analyst Maksim Balashevich, this institutional movement could become a new driving force for ETH. This growing narrative of “corporate treasuries adopting ETH” may push the asset to outperform Bitcoin. Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz also predicted that ETH could surpass Bitcoin in the next three to six months.

• Be cautious in the short term: Investors may react quickly to extreme social sentiment. Measures like stop-losses, profit-taking, or downsizing positions could be considered.

• Monitor June–July correction patterns: A potential 5–6% drop in the ETH/BTC ratio could resemble the local top observed in mid-May.

• Institutional staying power: Continued buying from institutions could offer long-term support for Ethereum through underlying demand.

• Upcoming chain upgrades: Planned protocol upgrades on Ethereum (such as proto‑danksharding and staking improvements) may push the price upward. However, whether these developments deliver their expected benefits remains to be seen.

Ethereum Faces Challenges at Key Resistance Zone

Ethereum has repeatedly tested a key resistance level in recent days but has yet to break through. While multiple rejections from this zone have been observed, breaking it this week is still among the possible scenarios. If the resistance is overcome, the price could gain momentum towards the $3,800–$3,900 range.

Eyes on Friday’s Interest Rate Decision

On the other hand, another major development the markets are focusing on this week is the interest rate decision to be announced on Friday. If an unexpected rate cut occurs, contrary to expectations, it could have a positive impact on the crypto market. In such a scenario, Ethereum may show strong upward momentum toward the $4,000 level.

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Why Is Exchange Supply Decreasing? 

Investors are moving Ethereum and Bitcoin off centralized exchanges. Santiment reports that over the past five years, 1.7 million BTC and 15.3 million ETH have been transferred from exchanges. This suggests a preference for storing assets in cold wallets. Security concerns, long-term investment expectations, and participation in decentralized finance (DeFi) projects are driving this trend. Lower exchange supply reduces liquidity and supports potential price increases. Additionally, Santiment highlights a 20% increase in Ethereum’s Layer-2 solution activity as a key factor strengthening this movement. Whales are also playing an active role, with Ethereum whales accumulating an additional 450,000 ETH, bringing their total holdings to 40.75 million ETH. 

Ethereum has under 4.9% of its supply on exchanges for the first time in its 10+ year history. And Bitcoin's supply on exchanges is down to just 7.1% for the first time since November, 2018.

Over the past 5 years, there is:

1.7M less Bitcoin on exchanges
15.3M less… pic.twitter.com/kKn9s1m2mC

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) May 19, 2025

According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $30 million over the past month, marking the first positive flow after a prolonged period of outflows. During the same period, BlackRock’s Ethereum funds surpassed $2.9 billion in total assets under management. 

What Does This Mean for the Market? 

A declining exchange supply creates a perception of scarcity in the crypto market. Santiment notes that this reduces selling pressure and creates potential for price increases. ETH exchange supply dropping below 4.9% signals strong confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem. Bitcoin’s 7.1% supply level paints a similar picture. However, the impact on prices depends on macroeconomic factors. Interest rates, regulatory developments, and market sentiment will shape the outcome of this trend. Santiment’s data indicates that investors are committed to HODL strategies and avoiding short-term sales, reinforcing expectations of a long-term bullish outlook in the crypto market. 

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ETF Excitement Soars Litecoin Price!

The market capitalization of Litecoin increased by 46% between February 2 and February 19. Santiment noted that part of this growth was due to the network’s daily transaction volume reaching $9.6 billion over the last week.

At the end of August, daily transaction volume was $2.8 billion, and it has since surged by 243%, reaching $9.6 billion in just five months. Additionally, Litecoin’s price has doubled since November, outpacing the overall cryptocurrency market, which grew by 42%.

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Santiment stated, “There’s rising excitement for the Litecoin ETF, 13 months after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC.”

Important Steps Taken for Litecoin ETF!

On February 19, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accepted a rule change proposal for listing the spot Litecoin ETF by CoinShares on the Nasdaq.

Meanwhile, Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF was listed on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) system with the LTCC code on February 20. DTCC is a critical infrastructure known for managing trillions of dollars in securities transactions in global financial markets.

The Litecoin Foundation stated, “This is a crucial preparation step for the potential launch of the fund.”

However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that this does not mean the product is approved or ready to trade, but rather the issuer is preparing. Balchunas also highlighted a 90% chance for ETF approval within 2024.

Litecoin Price Jumps 8.5%!

Following the listing news on DTCC, Litecoin’s price saw an 8.5% increase, rising from $127 to $138, before experiencing a slight correction.

In the last two weeks, Litecoin has risen 30%, surpassing Bitcoin, which has been trading in a narrow range during the same period.

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