When Bitcoin was trading around $65,800, approximately 70.41% of the assets transferred to exchanges came from large holders. However, this category is not homogeneous. A deeper breakdown reveals a sharp divergence in behavior between seasoned long-term whales and newer large-scale buyers.

Newer Whales Lead the Bitcoin Sell-Off

According to the data, large investors who entered positions at relatively higher price levels transferred roughly 138,000 BTC to exchanges. This accounts for nearly all major inflows during the observed period. In contrast, long-term large holders sent only about 7,500 BTC to trading platforms.

This distinction is critical. The current wave of exchange inflows appears to be driven less by profit-taking and more by defensive selling from investors facing unrealized losses. Rather than distributing gains, newer whales seem to be reducing exposure amid heightened uncertainty.

Rising Exchange Balances Signal Growing Supply

Since January, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased by more than 32,000 BTC, reaching approximately 2.75 million BTC. An increase in exchange balances is typically interpreted as a rise in readily sellable supply, which can amplify downward price pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin’s loss of the $65,000 support level triggered additional volatility. Within 24 hours, the price fell by 4% to 5%, setting off hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged derivatives markets. The forced unwinding of positions further intensified short-term weakness.

Macro Headwinds and the $60,000 Threshold

The broader macro backdrop has also played a role. The decision to raise global tariffs to 15% dampened overall risk appetite, prompting capital rotation toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-sensitive asset in such environments, faced renewed pressure.

CryptoQuant identifies the $60,000 level as a key short-term support zone. Whether exchange inflows begin to slow will likely determine the next directional move. Continued heavy transfers could sustain downside momentum, while a reduction in sell-side flows may allow the market to stabilize and reassess its footing.

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Seasonal Pattern or Market Myth?

There is a recurring narrative that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market sometimes experience weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year. The reasoning behind this theory suggests that Asia-based investors may reduce exposure before the holiday to increase cash holdings, creating short-term selling pressure. In certain past cycles, BTC did post pullbacks in the days leading up to the holiday period.

However, this pattern has not been consistent. In several instances, Bitcoin prices moved higher shortly after the celebrations concluded. Moreover, today’s crypto market structure is far more globally diversified than in earlier years. With capital flows distributed across multiple regions, it is increasingly unlikely that a single regional holiday alone can dictate overall price direction.

At the same time, retail investor behavior presents a contrasting dynamic. Recent data indicates that February balances for BTC and ETH are equal to or higher than December levels, suggesting that many individual investors are continuing to accumulate during dips rather than exiting positions. If this accumulation trend persists, it could help absorb any temporary seasonal selling pressure.

What the Technical Picture Reveals for Bitcoin

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains below its 50-day simple moving average near $83,900, confirming that the short-term trend is still tilted to the downside. Since peaking in the mid-$90,000 range in January, price action has formed a sequence of lower highs, reinforcing the technically weak structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 35, having rebounded from deeply oversold levels near 20 earlier this month. While this recovery signals that selling momentum has cooled, it does not yet confirm a definitive trend reversal.

Immediate support sits near $65,000, with a stronger demand zone between $60,000 and $62,000. On the upside, resistance is seen around $72,000, followed by a heavier supply area between $76,000 and $80,000. A break below $65,000 could open the door to further downside toward $60,000, whereas a sustained move above $72,000 would indicate that bullish momentum is regaining traction—regardless of seasonal narratives.

This content is not investment advice.

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Silver Plunges More Than 10%

Silver fell more than 10% intraday, sliding to $76.68. A decline of this magnitude within a single session underscores the heightened volatility currently gripping commodity markets. Silver’s dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial input makes it particularly sensitive to broader equity trends—especially in the technology sector.

Recent weakness in technology stocks has contributed to a broader risk-off tone. As investors reduce exposure to growth-oriented assets, silver has faced additional downside pressure. The speed of the sell-off suggests that leveraged positioning may also have amplified the move.

Gold Follows Falling

Gold mirrored the negative momentum, retreating to $4,958 per ounce. While earlier in the session the decline was relatively contained, selling intensified as the day progressed. The metal’s pullback reflects a recalibration of expectations around U.S. monetary policy and global risk sentiment.

Fed Policy Expectations Weigh on Metals

A key catalyst behind the decline is the strengthening view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. Stronger-than-expected labor market data has reduced the probability of imminent policy easing. In a higher-for-longer rate environment, non-yielding assets such as gold and silver typically lose relative appeal.

Market participants increasingly believe that resilient economic data will keep the Fed cautious. If the U.S. dollar remains firm under these conditions, additional pressure on precious metals cannot be ruled out.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions are Increasing Pressure on Gold and Silver

Another contributing factor may be a modest easing of geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran is necessary and suggested that a deal could be reached within the next month. He also indicated openness to continued dialogue, while warning that failure to reach an agreement would be “very traumatic” for Iran.

In addition, Trump reportedly paused certain technology restrictions on China ahead of a planned summit with Chinese President Xi. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also expressed confidence that Trump could secure a favorable agreement with Iran. These developments have slightly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, diminishing safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Overall, a stronger dollar, delayed rate-cut expectations, and a partial cooling in geopolitical tensions have converged to trigger the sharp correction in precious metals. Future direction will likely hinge on incoming macroeconomic data and diplomatic developments.

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The governance token, USUAL, saw a 17% drop before partially recovering. Critics pointed out that the new “dual exit” feature, which allows early exits at discounted prices, weakened the $1 peg and disrupted the balance in DeFi pools, catching investors off guard. The Usual team apologized for the confusion caused by the lack of information and emphasized that the change had been previously announced.

Sell-off Waves in Usual Protocol

Usual Protocol had shown a remarkable rise in recent months. However, a change in the protocol’s yield-bearing token triggered a sell-off in the secondary market, leading to community backlash on Friday.

Amid the chaos, the stake version of the 1-dollar stablecoin USD0, known as USD0++, briefly fell below 90 cents on the decentralized marketplace Curve. The governance token, USUAL, dropped by as much as 17% before partially recovering.

The change in the redemption mechanism of USD0++, introduced by the Usual team on Thursday, led to the sell-off wave. USD0 is backed by short-term government bonds to maintain its price at $1.

Users who stake in the Usual protocol receive USD0++ tokens with a four-year lock-up period, meaning investors must tie up their funds in the protocol without being able to use them. With the total value locked (TVL), a key DeFi metric, rising from $300 million in October to $1.87 billion earlier this week, yield farmers had shown significant interest.

The protocol faced heavy criticism. The new “dual exit” feature allows investors to redeem their staked tokens early at a price of $0.87 USD0 or an equivalent price by forgoing part of their rewards, leading to questions about the 1:1 exchange rate.

This sudden change drew backlash among DeFi users due to the design change being made without prior notice. In some liquidity pools, the token price was fixed, which caused confusion among borrowers and liquidity providers. Renowned DeFi analyst Ignas expressed on X:

“They allowed degens to jump into 1:1 and then rug pulled USD0++? They knew very well that USD0++ shouldn’t be trading at 1:1, yet they pushed it for the largest USD0/USD0++ pool on Curve.”

Stripe advisor Patrick McKenzie commented:

“DeFi continues to learn the most important truth about pegs: a peg is a story about why two things that aren’t the same can be used interchangeably.”

The Usual team stated in their announcement that the early redemption mechanism and design change had been communicated since October. The protocol also announced that it would activate its revenue sharing mechanism starting Monday, distributing earnings to governance token holders (USUALx) who stake their coins for the long term.

Risks in DeFi Products

This incident once again highlighted the nature of DeFi products, which offer high returns but carry potential risks for crypto investors. Dragonfly Capital’s general partner emphasized that when users take risks, they must be able to trust that the rules are clearly defined and unchanging, or panic could ensue in the market. He also noted that it was fortunate that this happened before it became a threat to the broader DeFi ecosystem.

Meanwhile, the USD0++ token was recently trading at $0.91 USD0 in the Curve pool, and the protocol’s total value locked (TVL) had fallen below $1.6 billion.

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