New Whales’ High Cost Basis 

Firstly, the cost basis of new Bitcoin whales is approximately $91,900. This reflects the average acquisition price of short-term holders (STH) who have purchased over 1,000 BTC ($103.3 million) in the last 155 days. In contrast, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) is much lower. This disparity shows that new whales are entering the market at high prices. Moreover, it suggests that new investors taking positions above the current Bitcoin price may face unrealized losses. However, the confidence of these whales in the market could also reflect a long-term bullish outlook. 

Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior 

Additionally, on-chain data provides important clues for understanding investor behavior in the Bitcoin market. The Realized Price indicator, which measures the average cost basis of investors, sheds light on the overall market condition. Currently, the high cost basis of short-term whales indicates new capital inflows into the market. This proves that interest in Bitcoin persists and new players are taking positions despite high prices. On the other hand, the low cost basis of long-term whales shows that they are in profitable positions and contribute to market stability. These dynamics create an important foundation for Bitcoin’s future price movements. 

Furthermore, analysts view Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100,000 positively. Investtech notes that the upward trend continues in the short and medium term, though a reaction may occur at the $105,500 resistance level. On-chain data reflects new capital inflows and whales’ confidence in the market. 

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BTC’s December Performance

Data shows that despite recent sell-offs, Bitcoin has still gained approximately 50% in Q4 2024. While short-term price action may show volatility, Bitcoin’s bull market scenario remains firmly intact.

Currently trading around $15,000 below last week’s all-time high, BTC is just 2.4% below its opening price for December.

A Critical Trendline for Bitcoin

Popular analyst Titan of Crypto noted that as long as Bitcoin holds above a crucial rising trendline, there is no reason to worry. He referred to this level as Bitcoin’s “most critical support.”

Historical data from CoinGlass suggests that 2024 has been an average year so far in terms of December performance. Compared to December 2023, this year’s market movements lag slightly behind.

Some analysts have drawn parallels between this year’s price action and Q4 of 2023, suggesting a potential fractal pattern in the market. Analyst Nestay commented that the 2024 market structure appears to be repeating the patterns of 2023.

Short-Term Holders Under the Spotlight

Analyst Bitcoindata21 suggested that, as in two previous market corrections, Bitcoin may find support and rebound once it reaches the realized price level of short-term holders.

This realized price level, currently at approximately $86,000, represents the average cost basis at which short-term investors break even.

However, analyst On-Chain College issued a word of caution. He noted that any price drop above this Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STHCB) is “noise.” But if this level is lost and cannot be reclaimed, it would warrant further evaluation.

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