Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.

Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.

Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside

Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.

• Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.

• Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.

• Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.

Bitcoin vs Gold Performance

The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.

Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.

What Investors Should Expect

XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:

• Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.

• Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.

However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.

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Long-term holders are less aggressive. The profit-taking rate of investors holding ETH for more than 155 days remains around December 2024 levels. This is 39% lower compared to the highest daily profit-taking average seen last month when ETH was at $3,500. 

ETH price currently trades 12.7% below its November 2021 peak of $4,828. According to CoinGlass, if the price reaches $4,700, around $2.23 billion worth of positions could be liquidated. 

Increasing Institutional Demand Amid Price Resistance 

ETH has recently crossed the $4,300 level multiple times but failed to hold above it. Meanwhile, institutional investors are increasing their Ether holdings. Companies with crypto treasuries now hold a total of 3.04 million ETH, equivalent to about $13 billion. 

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes resumed Ethereum buying after selling $10.5 million last week. Hayes’ move is seen as a confidence signal for breaking the critical resistance. 

Santiment analysts note that large institutional buys becoming public could trigger FOMO but may also lead to short-term price pauses or declines. The market remains cautious after failed rallies earlier this year. 

Breaking above the $4,300 resistance zone could create new momentum in the market, opening fresh opportunities for both short- and long-term investors. 

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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