This development suggests that the geopolitical sell-off that began over the weekend has now extended into the institutional layer of the market. The scale of ETF redemptions points to a broader portfolio adjustment rather than purely speculative selling pressure.

ETF Flows Reverse Course

According to data from SoSoValue, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $394.68 million on Monday. With this move, the four-day inflow streak that had brought more than $1.8 billion into the market came to a clear end.

Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows, shedding $205.22 million in a single session. Grayscale’s GBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, and Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB also posted notable redemptions. BlackRock’s IBIT stood out as the exception, registering a modest $15 million net inflow.

Just days earlier, strong ETF inflows had coincided with Bitcoin rally above $95,800. However, the resurgence of geopolitical risk quickly reversed that momentum.

Greenland Tensions Disrupt Risk Appetite

The sudden shift in ETF flows reflects growing concerns over a potential trade conflict between the United States and the European Union. Over the weekend, former President Donald Trump warned that tariffs could be raised on imports from eight NATO allies if Denmark refuses to sell Greenland.

In response, European officials signaled possible countermeasures, including restrictions on US services, new taxes on American companies, or limits on investment activity within the EU. These escalating signals injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, pressuring risk assets across the board.

Following the initial headlines, Bitcoin slid from around $95,000 to near $92,500. Selling pressure persisted, with BTC trading near $90,979 at the time of writing.

“A Layer of Uncertainty Markets Can’t Absorb”

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas argues that the prospect of a trade war adds a level of geopolitical uncertainty markets are ill-equipped to handle. She notes that sentiment had already weakened after delays in US crypto market structure discussions last week.

According to Lucas, if macro pressure persists, Bitcoin could revisit the $67,000–$74,000 range in the coming period.

Mixed Signals Across Other Crypto ETFs

While Bitcoin ETF experienced heavy redemptions, flows across other crypto funds remained more contained. Spot Ethereum ETFs posted $4.6 million in net inflows on Monday, while XRP products recorded $1.1 million in inflows. Solana ETFs, however, saw $2.2 million in net outflows, marking their first daily outflow since December 3.

Presto Research associate analyst Min Jung cautions that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, as trade policy details remain unclear. However, she expects geopolitical uncertainty to keep crypto markets volatile in the near term.

With ETF flows and geopolitical risk converging, Bitcoin now faces heightened pressure during a critical phase of consolidation. Institutional capital appears to be shifting into a defensive posture. Whether this proves temporary or signals a deeper trend shift will largely depend on Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $90,000 level in the days ahead.

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Exchange Balances Fall While Transfers Climb

At the start of the week, XRP Ledger saw significant activity. Transfers valued at $100,000 or more rose from 2,170 on Monday to 2,802 on Tuesday, marking a three-month high. This indicates active positioning by large investors and a potential for short-term price volatility. Analysts note that declining exchange balances reflect self-custody rather than panic selling.

According to Santiment, daily whale transfers are increasing noticeably. Separate data from CryptoOnchain show Binance’s XRP reserves fell to about 2.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since January 2024. Since late 2025, balances dropped from roughly 3.25 billion Ripple, usually reflecting holders moving coins off-exchange rather than preparing to sell.

Price Action and Technical Outlook

XRP was trading around $2.13 at the time of writing. The token briefly touched $2.40 earlier in the week before general market softening pushed it lower. Still, XRP is up about 16% over the past seven days and 14% in the last two weeks. Analysts highlight support near $2.27 as critical. Technical patterns in the XRP/BTC pairing suggest a relative strength setup unseen since 2018.

What It Means

Short-term price swings are likely, but rising whale transfers and falling exchange balances indicate positioning rather than panic. These dynamics suggest XRP may be preparing for wider price movements in the days ahead.

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This expiry is crucial, highlighting market fragility and potential end-of-cycle signals. Analysts urge caution around BTC $100,000 and ETH $3,500–$3,800 levels.

Bitcoin Options Show Cautious Optimism

Bitcoin options display cautious optimism after recent declines below $100,000. Deribit data shows a maximum pain point at $107,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.79.

Open interest is concentrated around $100,000 puts and $120,000–$125,000 calls. Total open contracts are 45,802 with a nominal value exceeding $4.6 billion. This concentration indicates that traders are expecting a decisive market move and actively hedging as expiry approaches.

Ethereum’s Defensive Position Remains Key

Ethereum options trade at $3,347, maintaining a defensive stance. Open interest focuses on $3,500 puts and $4,200 calls, with a put/call ratio of approximately 0.9 and a nominal value of $716.85 million.

Traders employ calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, and straddles to maintain upside exposure while hedging against downside risk. Movements near critical levels may test the effectiveness of short-term volatility strategies.

End-of-Cycle Risks and Market Fragility

Analysts at Greeks.live warn of end-of-cycle risks. BTC levels of $105,000, $102,000, and $97,000, along with ETH at $3,650 and $3,400, drive debate about potential drops or continued volatility.

Nevertheless, many traders continue to sell options aggressively, betting on short-term volatility. Even small price moves can significantly impact settlement results. Macroeconomic factors, including CPI data and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, have slowed ETF inflows, yet overall open interest remains high.

As the $5.4 billion options expire, the next few hours will test whether traders’ short-term strategies pay off or if market fragility leads to sharp moves.

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