Gold and Silver Quiet Before NFP

Spot gold continues to hover around the $5,030 range following historic peaks at the end of January. Silver has retraced 2.1%, a technical profit-taking move. Analyst Jigar Trivedi emphasizes that the underlying trend remains positive. Investors are avoiding large positions ahead of the US data. If employment figures fall short, gold could target $5,100. Silver prices are holding above the $81 support. This current pullback in the dollar resembles a calm before the storm.

Eastern Factors Weigh on the Dollar

The dollar’s global weakness is driven not only by domestic data but also by moves from East Asia. The Chinese yuan surpassed 6.91 for the first time since May 2023, gaining over 1% against the dollar. Local banks reducing exposure to US Treasury securities is adding pressure on the greenback. Asset diversification demand is one of the key factors behind the dollar index decline.

In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s victory pushed the yen to 155.24. However, this recovery may not last. Takaichi’s potential use of the $1.4 trillion foreign exchange reserve for tax cuts raises concerns. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that surplus reserves could be used for food tax reductions. Analyst Carol Kong predicts that this fiscal loosening could push the dollar/yen rate to 164 by year-end.

Fed’s Rate Path and Expectations

US government shutdown delays have finally ended, bringing pending reports to the market. Kevin Hassett warns that employment growth could remain at 70,000 due to slower labor force growth and high productivity. This scenario weakens the Fed’s hand. Analysts expect it to strengthen the likelihood of a monetary easing cycle starting in June.

Market participants continue to price in two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in June. This expectation is creating short-term pressure on the dollar while fueling volatility in commodity prices. Other currencies remain stable, with the euro holding at 1.19125. Sterling faces pressure at $1.369 amid political crises. Investors are now focused not just on the data but on how the Fed reacts to it.

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Gold has once again settled above the psychological $5,000 threshold. Moves in silver were even more aggressive. Spot silver surged 4.6% to $81.54. After sliding toward the $60 zone last week, this rebound suggests that short-term panic selling has largely been absorbed. Platinum did not share the same momentum, falling 2.3% to around $2,068.

The market is still searching for a clear narrative — and frankly, it’s struggling to find one.

Eyes on US Data: Dollar Under Pressure

Investors are focusing on US nonfarm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. Both releases could provide fresh clues about the Fed’s interest-rate path. The delay of January’s labor report until Wednesday limited short-term volatility, giving gold some breathing room.

The US dollar has slipped to its lowest levels since February 4, making dollar-priced metals more attractive to global investors. Analysts highlight a strong intraday correlation between gold, silver, and the dollar.

KCM Chief Analyst Tim Waterer summarizes the current setup:

“Opportunistic buying is pushing gold back above the psychological $5,000 level.”

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened after weekend elections, adding further pressure to the dollar index.

Fed Uncertainty at the Center of Pricing

Last week saw sharp whipsaw moves across precious metals markets. The catalyst was a brief dollar rebound after President Donald Trump floated Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair candidate, triggering profit-taking in gold and silver.

The narrative quickly shifted. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not fully rule out potential legal scrutiny related to Warsh, raising institutional confidence concerns. Growing fears over Fed independence pushed the dollar lower again. As the dollar weakened, gold responded naturally to the upside.

Markets are now pricing at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially arriving in June. Gold, which offers no yield, historically performs better in low-rate environments.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that one or two additional rate cuts may be needed to offset labor-market weakness.

According to Waterer, softer employment data could further support gold — though unless there’s a significant deterioration, the Fed is unlikely to act decisively before mid-year.

Turkey Market: Gram Gold Near 7,500 TRY

Global gains spilled into Turkey as well. In the Grand Bazaar, gram gold traded around 7,518 TRY, while quarter gold climbed toward 12,262 TRY. Physical buying interest remains steady, with prices reflecting both on-shore FX moves and international gold performance.

For local investors, the picture is clear: global uncertainty continues to amplify domestic price sensitivity.

China Factor: Quiet but Persistent

One of the strongest medium-to-long-term supports for gold comes from China.

In January, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 74.19 million ounces. The move is widely interpreted as strategic diversification away from dollar-based reserves. China already leads global gold consumption, and continued central-bank demand provides a solid floor for prices.

Silver Approaches Key Resistance

Silver’s technical structure looks more aggressive. After nearly a 10% jump on Friday, momentum has carried into the new week — but analysts urge caution.

Kelvin Wong identifies $92.24 as a critical resistance level. Until that zone is cleared, medium-term bullish scenarios remain tentative. Notably, silver hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29. Volatility has increased sharply since then.

2026 Performance Remains Positive

Despite recent turbulence, gold is up roughly 15% year-to-date, while silver holds about a 5% gain. The sharp correction from early-February highs flushed out some speculative positions, leaving a more balanced — yet still fragile — market structure.

In short: gold is holding above $5,000, silver has staged a powerful rebound. Direction, however, remains uncertain. Fed ambiguity, dollar movements, and central-bank demand are all colliding in the same pricing mix. This week’s US data will be decisive for short-term momentum.

The market isn’t comfortable yet — but it’s not fully defensive either.

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The Factors Behind the Surge

The use of silver in solar panel production and the electronics sector continues to increase each day. When this rising demand is combined with supply-side constraints, prices inevitably move higher. Moreover, as we have seen, gold has also surged amid global economic uncertainties. With uncertainty dominating the markets, it is clear that investors have turned to silver as the second safe haven after gold. This has significantly boosted interest in silver alongside gold.

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How Analysts Interpret the Market

Some analysts state that silver is likely to remain strong in the coming period due to rising industrial demand and supply shortages. On the other hand, others point out that its high volatility and its more speculative nature compared to gold could create challenges. Its current market value and position make it quite volatile. Investors are also being warned that economic slowdowns or interest rate hike risks could trigger sharp price corrections.

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