Global investors are now monitoring two key factors simultaneously: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and growing energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz. At this point, market behavior is sitting on a particularly sensitive equilibrium.

Why Gold Prices Remain Stable

Gold has remained resilient despite waning expectations for rate cuts, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields. These factors offset inflationary pressure from high energy prices, keeping gold above $5,000.

Earlier on Monday, gold experienced a roughly 1% drop. However, losses were quickly recovered as the dollar weakened. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,020 per ounce.

Meanwhile, April U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $5,024 per ounce, showing that the market is still searching for direction. The key driver here is actually a threefold balance: the dollar, Treasury yields, and energy prices.

When the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand.

Additionally, falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields provide support for gold, as non-yielding assets like gold and silver become more attractive when yields decline.

Oil Remains Above $100

The Middle East conflict is directly affecting energy markets. As tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran enter the third week, oil remains above $100 per barrel.

This situation not only impacts energy markets but also affects global inflation expectations. High oil prices increase transportation and production costs, thereby strengthening inflationary pressure.

Gold is generally seen as a hedge against inflation. However, if inflation rises and central banks are forced to maintain high rates, real yields could increase, limiting gold’s upside.

According to OCBC strategist Christopher Wong, high energy prices may make the Fed more cautious about rate cuts. Essentially, the market is caught between two forces: geopolitical and inflation risks on one side, and the possibility of higher rates on the other.

Market Waiting Ahead of Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.

The market expects policy rates to remain unchanged, but investors are watching the Fed’s messaging closely.

If Fed officials signal that energy-driven inflation remains a concern, expectations for rate cuts could be further delayed.

Even if rates remain unchanged, changes in communication could swiftly shift market balance.

Meanwhile, the interplay of Treasury yields, the dollar index, and commodity prices is currently delicate. Small announcements can trigger significant price movements.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Energy Diplomacy

Geopolitical tensions remain high. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz are critical for global energy security.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration has held talks with seven countries to secure the Strait.

This move is not only military but also a signal of new energy diplomacy in the Gulf. Trump also threatened increased attacks on Iran’s main oil export terminal at Kharg Island, while stating that no peace agreement is currently on the table.

He emphasized that countries heavily reliant on Gulf oil bear responsibility for protecting the Strait.

This underscores that global energy supply is both an economic and security matter.

Other Precious Metals Gain

The cautious balance in gold has also extended to other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $80.62 per ounce. Platinum increased 1.8% to $2,060, while palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,576 per ounce.

Currently, the market is pricing three risk factors simultaneously: energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy.

The coming days will reveal which direction this threefold equation pushes gold prices, as global market balance—risk premiums and real yields—is being recalculated in real time.

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Spot gold gained 0.2% to $5,202.10 per ounce. April-delivery US gold futures fell 0.6% to $5,211. Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel. Gold has gained more than 20% this year amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaching consecutive record levels.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on March 18 but still anticipate at least two rate cuts this year.

Fluctuations in Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, while palladium gained 0.9% to $1,669.82.

Investors are unsettled by uncertainty over the future of the Iran conflict. The dollar has shown volatility. Global markets are pricing in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the conflict soon. At the same time, Trump continues to threaten harsh penalties against Iran over attempts to block energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Short-Term Reactions in the Currency Market

• The euro rebounded slightly by 0.18% to $1.163175 from Monday’s three-month low. The pound rose 0.25% to $1.3449.
• The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell to 98.773, near Monday’s three-month high.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Investors on Edge

On the 12th day of the war, the US and Israel conducted reciprocal airstrikes against Iranian forces across the Middle East. The besieged Tehran government warned that state security forces are “on alert with fingers ready” if anti-government protests flare up again.

Rapidly developing events are forcing investors to price risk carefully. Another key focus is the February US inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% for the month, while overall prices increase by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves. This development contributed to the drop in oil prices.

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Rising Middle East Tensions Impact Energy Markets

Political rhetoric and military tensions in the Middle East have significantly increased pressure on global energy markets. U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that any agreement with Iran would require “unconditional surrender,” a comment that further escalated regional tensions.

In response, statements from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard have drawn attention to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. The possibility of disruptions in this narrow maritime corridor has raised concerns among market participants.

Reports indicate that tanker traffic in the region has slowed considerably. Visual data shared by Reuters suggests that more than 200 vessels have been waiting near the strait, with crossings occurring less frequently than usual. Such developments have heightened fears regarding potential interruptions to global oil supply.

Oil Prices Jump Sharply

Growing geopolitical risk has quickly translated into higher oil prices. Over the past 24 hours, oil has surged by 10.71 percent, reaching a price of 93.33 dollars per barrel.

The sharp increase is largely attributed to the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. A large portion of the world’s oil exports passes through this corridor, meaning any disruption in the region could have a direct and immediate effect on global supply chains. As a result, traders are closely monitoring developments for signs of further escalation.

Precious Metals Gain from Safe-Haven Demand

Periods of geopolitical uncertainty typically drive investors toward assets perceived as stable stores of value. This dynamic has been clearly visible in precious metal markets.

Gold prices have risen by 1.77 percent in the past 24 hours, reaching 5,171 dollars.

Silver has also moved higher, gaining 2.68 percent and climbing to 84.44 dollars during the same period.

The continued upward momentum in these metals reflects heightened risk perception across financial markets, as investors look to hedge against instability and market volatility.

Weak U.S. Employment Data Adds Economic Concerns

Economic data from the United States has added another layer of uncertainty to global markets. The latest non-farm payroll report for February showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 58,000. The previous reading had indicated job growth of 130,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.4 percent, compared with both the forecast and previous level of 4.3 percent.

The weaker-than-expected employment data has raised questions about the pace of economic growth in the United States and has contributed to a more cautious tone among investors.

The Financial Cost of the Iran Conflict

Beyond market reactions, the potential economic burden of military operations involving Iran is also drawing attention. While the Pentagon has not released an official estimate, analysis from a Washington-based policy institute suggests that the daily cost of the operation could reach approximately 891.4 million dollars.

According to the same analysis, the total cost could climb to as much as 95 billion dollars depending on how long the operation continues. Current projections mentioned by U.S. officials range from two weeks to six weeks, though the exact timeline remains uncertain.

As geopolitical tensions persist, global investors continue to watch both political developments and economic indicators closely. These factors are expected to remain key drivers of commodity prices, particularly in the energy and precious metals sectors.

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Gold Rebounds on Safe-Haven Demand

With uncertainty mounting, gold has regained upward momentum. Spot gold advanced 1.3% to $5,161.5 per ounce, while U.S. April gold futures rose 0.8%, trading at $5,165.80 per ounce. The recovery comes after a sharp pullback the previous session, when the metal fell more than 4% amid a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations of near-term rate cuts.

The latest rebound marks a recovery from the lowest levels seen in a week. Despite recent volatility, the broader structural drivers behind gold remain intact. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, policy unpredictability, and the need for portfolio diversification continue to underpin medium-term support for the metal.

Energy Markets React to Supply Concerns

Tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have intensified concerns over potential disruptions to energy supply. Actions targeting energy infrastructure and maritime activity in the Gulf region have heightened fears of reduced output across a corridor stretching from Qatar to Iraq. As a result, both oil and natural gas prices have experienced sharp upward moves.

Market analysts caution that sustained increases in energy prices could reintroduce inflationary pressures at a delicate time for global monetary policy. Rising oil prices in particular may complicate central banks’ efforts to transition toward looser financial conditions.

Inflation Expectations and Rate Outlook

Elevated energy costs combined with geopolitical instability have pushed inflation expectations back into focus. Market participants widely anticipate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting.

Broader Precious Metals Performance

The upward move in gold has been mirrored by gains across the broader precious metals complex. Spot silver surged 3.1% to $84.61 per ounce, while platinum rose 2.1% to $2,126.50 per ounce. Palladium was trading at $1,673.38 per ounce.

Overall, the market response underscores a clear shift toward defensive assets as geopolitical risks intensify and macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Gold, Silver, and Oil on the Rise!

As of Tuesday, commodity prices such as gold, silver, and oil continued their upward trend for the fifth consecutive trading day. The primary concern in the markets is the possibility that the current tension could evolve from a short-term conflict into a broader, more protracted regional crisis. This scenario suppresses risk appetite while increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Strait of Hormuz Tension and Oil Risk

One of the headlines escalating the tension involves statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Reports in Iranian media quoted a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stating that the strait has been closed and that vessels attempting to pass could face intervention. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically critical chokepoint, as approximately one-fifth of global oil supply passes through it.

These statements have heightened upward risks for oil prices, while also raising concerns that potential supply disruptions could reignite inflationary pressures. However, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that the strait is not actually closed and that there are no indications of active Iranian patrolling or mining efforts in the area. China, meanwhile, called on all parties to protect ship safety in the strait.

Current Prices of Gold, Silver, and Oil

In the current environment, gold’s spot price per ounce stands at around $5,320.

Silver is at $86.93,

And crude oil is trading around $80.68.

(Note: These are approximate levels cited in the original analysis; real-time prices as of early March 2026 show gold fluctuating in the $5,300–$5,400 range, silver around $85–$93, and crude oil in the $70–$80+ range depending on the benchmark (WTI/Brent), reflecting ongoing volatility from geopolitical developments.)

These price levels demonstrate that the geopolitical risk premium is strongly reflected in the markets.

In the short term, as long as uncertainty and military tensions persist, safe-haven demand for gold and silver could remain intact. On the oil side, the supply risk stemming from the Strait of Hormuz continues to be the main factor keeping prices elevated.

However, if diplomatic contacts increase, tensions de-escalate, or a ceasefire/agreement framework emerges between the parties, profit-taking and corrective moves could be seen, especially in precious metals. Oil prices could also retreat if the supply risk diminishes.

The main factor determining the direction in commodity markets will be the course of military developments and the global actors’ capacity to manage the crisis. As long as the risk premium remains high, the upward trend may persist; but if uncertainty decreases, pricing could settle on a more balanced footing.

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Gold and Oil Prices Surge

As the war entered its third day, risk perception in the markets continued to rise. As of Monday morning:

• Gold per ounce climbed to $5,340
• Silver per ounce rose to $93
• Brent crude surpassed $75, marking one of its sharpest increases in the past four years

Despite traditional markets being closed over the weekend, tokenized gold assets such as Tether Gold and PAX Gold surged above $5,500, drawing attention. The rise in Brent crude oil is reported to be the fastest since the Russia–Ukraine war. The most significant impact on energy markets has been felt through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 25% of global oil trade and 20% of LNG shipments. Following reports that two commercial vessels were struck after Iranian intervention, major insurers reportedly suspended issuing war risk policies. Although the strait has not been officially closed, uninsured ships are unable to pass, creating serious uncertainty in oil supply. While approximately 20 million barrels of oil reportedly transited the strait on Saturday, no vessels were said to have passed in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Remains Stronger Than Expected

Despite heightened geopolitical risks, Bitcoin managed to remain relatively stable. On the first day of the conflict, BTC fell to around $63,000 amid rising uncertainty but quickly rebounded to the $68,000 range following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had died. The rebound was largely attributed to expectations that the conflict might be shorter than anticipated and that market risk perception could ease rapidly. Although global markets were dominated by panic over the weekend, Bitcoin saw limited selling pressure. Notably, there were no significant outflows from large spot wallets, and liquidations in derivatives markets remained contained, helping prices stabilize.

On the first trading day of the new week, Bitcoin maintained its sideways movement and appeared more resilient compared to the sharp volatility in traditional markets. While gold and oil experienced aggressive rallies, Bitcoin’s stabilization within the $68,000–$70,000 range led to commentary suggesting that the asset has recently shown stronger resistance to geopolitical shocks. Continued institutional demand and ongoing ETF inflows are considered key factors preventing a sharper downside break.

Statement from Donald Trump: Operations Will Continue

U.S. President Donald Trump stated overnight that military operations would continue. According to White House sources, air and missile operations coordinated between the United States and Israel are not yet complete and will continue until strategic objectives are met.

In his remarks, Trump emphasized that the intervention is not short-term:

“Operations will continue until we reach our objectives. Our losses may increase.”

He also stated that much of Iran’s senior military command structure has been neutralized and that operations are proceeding according to plan. His comments reinforced expectations that geopolitical tensions will not ease in the short term, sustaining elevated risk perception in global markets. Following his statements, upward momentum in energy and commodity markets accelerated.

Asian Markets Open Lower

Rising geopolitical risks also triggered selling pressure in Asian markets:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%
• Hong Kong’s Hong Kong Stock Exchange declined 1.5%
• The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose nearly 1%

Airline stocks faced the steepest losses due to rising fuel costs and increased risks. Overall, escalating tensions in the Middle East have heightened uncertainty around energy supply and global trade, driving gold and oil prices higher. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has demonstrated relative stability despite turbulence in traditional markets. The course of the war will remain a decisive factor for price movements in energy markets and crypto assets alike.

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From Sharp Rally to Correction — and Back Again

In recent months, both gold and silver experienced substantial rallies that pushed prices sharply higher. However, those rapid advances were followed by a corrective phase, largely driven by profit-taking from short-term investors. As speculative positioning cooled, prices temporarily retraced.

Now, a combination of geopolitical tensions and persistent global economic uncertainty appears to be restoring buying interest in the precious metals complex. Historically, when risk factors intensify across financial markets, capital tends to rotate into defensive assets. The latest price action suggests that this traditional pattern is once again unfolding.

Geopolitical Tensions Reinforce Safe-Haven Appeal of Gold

Escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel have contributed to heightened market caution. Periods of geopolitical strain often amplify demand for safe-haven instruments, and gold remains one of the primary beneficiaries of such flows.

With spot gold reaching $5,278, the market is reflecting a renewed preference for capital preservation amid uncertainty. Gold’s long-standing role as a store of value during crises and conflicts continues to underpin its upward bias in times of instability.

Silver Gains Strength from Industrial and AI Demand

Silver’s rally, however, is not solely tied to safe-haven demand. At $93.79 per ounce and a daily gain exceeding 6%, silver’s price dynamics also reflect robust industrial fundamentals. Demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductor production, and advanced manufacturing technologies is increasingly influencing silver’s valuation.

Unlike gold, silver straddles both monetary and industrial roles. As AI-driven industries expand and technological investments accelerate, silver’s strategic importance within supply chains becomes more pronounced.

With geopolitical risks and structural industrial demand converging, precious metals currently benefit from dual support mechanisms. Market participants will be closely monitoring global developments to assess whether this upward trajectory can be sustained in the coming period.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and independent research should be conducted before making investment decisions.

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A Rapid Expansion in Global Liquidity

Year-over-year, global money supply increased by $13.6 trillion, representing growth of 10.4%. December marked the third consecutive month of accelerating expansion. Since the 2020 pandemic period, total money supply has surged by $44 trillion, or approximately 44%. The fastest pace of increase during this cycle was recorded in February 2021 at 18.7%, an exceptionally strong expansion rarely observed outside crisis conditions.

From a classical macro perspective, the relationship appears straightforward: more liquidity tends to benefit scarce assets. As capital becomes more abundant, investors often seek instruments perceived as stores of value or inflation hedges. Gold’s recent behavior aligns closely with this framework.

Gold and Bitcoin: A Growing Divergence

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has emphasized that gold is tracking global liquidity growth with notable consistency, while Bitcoin is not. Even after experiencing a sharp 21% drawdown earlier in the month, gold quickly attracted renewed buying interest and preserved its broader upward structure. Such short-lived pullbacks followed by swift recoveries are characteristic of established bull markets.

Bitcoin, in contrast, has exhibited more erratic price action. The key distinction lies in its dual identity. Gold is widely recognized as a singular “hard money” asset. Bitcoin, meanwhile, occupies two roles simultaneously: a potential digital store of value and a speculative risk asset.

The Role of Speculative Appetite

According to Timmer’s assessment, expanding money supply alone is insufficient to drive Bitcoin higher. When speculative segments of the market—such as software and SaaS equities—experience weakening momentum, that decline in risk appetite can counterbalance the liquidity tailwind that would otherwise support crypto prices.

Historically, the strongest bull markets in digital assets have emerged when abundant liquidity coincided with strong speculative enthusiasm. At present, liquidity growth remains robust, but speculative appetite is subdued. As a result, gold continues to benefit from monetary expansion, while Bitcoin struggles to align with the same macro forces.

In this environment, rising liquidity creates a favorable backdrop, but without renewed speculative demand, Bitcoin’s upside potential remains constrained.

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Spot Gold Holds Firm Above Recent Highs

Spot gold climbed to $5,197 per ounce, marking a 0.60% daily gain. Earlier in the week, the metal tested its highest level in more than three weeks, maintaining a constructive upward bias. In contrast, April gold futures in the United States slipped 0.3% to $5,208.80 per ounce, reflecting a degree of short-term positioning adjustments in the derivatives market.

The divergence between spot and futures pricing suggests that while immediate demand remains resilient, some traders are reassessing forward expectations amid macroeconomic crosscurrents.

Dollar Weakness Offers Support

The U.S. dollar index remained subdued despite stronger-than-expected earnings from Nvidia, which typically would have bolstered broader risk appetite and supported the currency. Instead, the dollar’s softness made dollar-denominated gold more attractive for investors holding other currencies.

Market strategists attribute the recent price action to a combination of renewed tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and repricing in foreign exchange markets. Expectations surrounding central bank policy are also shaping sentiment. According to CME FedWatch data, investors anticipate three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Upcoming weekly jobless claims data could provide additional clarity on the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Tariff Concerns and Geneva Talks in Focus

Trade policy remains a key variable. The U.S. Trade Representative signaled that the existing 10% tariff on certain countries could be raised to 15% or higher, though no specific nations were identified. The lack of detail has kept global trade outlook concerns alive.

Meanwhile, diplomatic developments are unfolding in Geneva, where Iranian and U.S. officials are set to meet following prolonged nuclear disputes and regional tensions. The outcome of these discussions may influence risk perception across Middle Eastern markets and beyond.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Performance

Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.1% to $89.29 per ounce after reaching a three-week high in the previous session.

Platinum advanced 0.3% to $2,292.83, while palladium declined 0.2% to $1,791.79. Both metals had recently touched three-week peaks.

In the current climate, movements in the dollar and geopolitical headlines are likely to remain central drivers of precious metal pricing dynamics.

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Diplomatic Talks Approach a Decisive Moment

Diplomatic sources indicate that the coming two days could prove pivotal for the future of U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions. If Iran presents a proposal acceptable to Washington within this timeframe, negotiations are expected to resume in Geneva on Friday. Reports in U.S. media suggest that the current offer may represent the final opportunity extended by the Trump administration.

Separately, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran may be willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The possibility of allowing U.S. companies to participate in oil extraction activities has also been mentioned. However, substantial disagreements reportedly remain between the parties, underscoring the fragility of the process.

Bitcoin Pulls Back, Liquidations Surge

Bitcoin, which traded in the $67,000–$68,000 range over the weekend, retreated amid the rising geopolitical tension. During overnight trading, the leading cryptocurrency declined to as low as $64,200.

The pullback triggered increased volatility in derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, 135,199 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $455 million. While digital assets have at times benefited from geopolitical instability, the current environment appears to be prompting short-term risk reduction among market participants.

Gold and Silver Reassert Safe-Haven Status

Precious metals, by contrast, attracted renewed demand. Over the past two years of recurring tensions involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel, gold has climbed from around $2,000 to as high as $5,600. Entering the new week, the metal once again responded positively to geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold, which had recently reclaimed the $5,000 level, rose 1% overnight to $5,165.

Silver posted an even stronger performance, advancing more than 3% to surpass $87.

The current landscape suggests that market volatility will remain closely tied to diplomatic developments. As uncertainty intensifies, capital flows appear to be shifting toward assets traditionally viewed as stores of value during periods of geopolitical stress.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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