It is still early to see concrete impacts of AI on the labor market, but the report will be closely monitored for weak job growth or unexpected job losses.

Market-Moving Events on Friday

Besides today’s payroll data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Daly, Paulson, Collins, and Hammack will be key for markets. Rising bond yields are pressuring Fed rate cut expectations, while risk assets are recovering from movements in oil prices. Bitcoin and global equities have stabilized after the early-week sell-off triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions.

Bonds remain cautious; rising yields are bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Strong economic data from the US and ongoing energy-driven price shocks are keeping investors on edge.

Bitcoin and Equities

Bitcoin traded above $70,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 10% since the start of the week. Prices had dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend due to US-Israel-Iran tensions, then briefly climbed to $74,000 on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures also rebounded; contracts that fell to 6,718 on Tuesday have climbed to about 6,840 at the time of writing.

Oil and Geopolitical Risks

Reports that Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered initial risk-off moves. The US quickly responded, providing escort for tankers and political risk coverage, bringing short-term stability to markets. Brent crude is trading around $85.47.

The bond market remains cautious. According to CME Fed Funds futures, investors now see less than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates twice by 25 basis points this year, down from around 80% before the conflict. Attention is now on today’s job data and wage growth figures.

Labor Data and Fed Expectations

Last month, US labor data exceeded expectations: 130,000 new jobs were created in January, unemployment dropped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Expectations for February are more moderate, suggesting a return to the “low hiring, low firing” pattern seen over the past year.

Jerome Powell’s April meeting will be particularly critical for Fed policy. Higher-than-expected employment or wage growth could weaken rate cut expectations and trigger new market volatility.

Market Notes and Micro Data

• BTC: $70,642 (approx. 10% gain since start of week)
• S&P 500 Futures: 6,840
• Bond yields: rising, Fed cut expectations decreasing
• Oil: brief spike after Hormuz Strait news, now stable

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Technical Disruption in CME Futures

According to the official statement, all futures and options markets were temporarily suspended. Technical teams are actively working to resolve the issue, and Pre-Open details will be shared with clients shortly. The halt has caused sudden liquidity constraints for market participants.

CME halted trading due to the cooling problem at the CyrusOne data centers. The support team is working to fix the issue and will notify clients of Pre-Open details as soon as possible.

Which Markets Were Affected?

The halt affected a wide range of products, including energy, commodities, and index futures. CME is expanding its crypto offerings with options on Solana and XRP futures and aims to keep crypto markets open 24/7 starting next year. Prices on CME platforms serve as benchmarks for many markets, from equities to commodities.

While the total number of affected products is not yet clear, Reuters reported that West Texas Intermediate crude, Treasury futures, S&P 500 futures, palm oil, and gold prices were not updated. In addition, prices on the widely used EBS FX platform, which handles heavily traded currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, were also not refreshed.

Analysts noted that the halt increased uncertainty during a month of ongoing volatility. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said, “This hasn’t helped at all, especially on a day when there was real interest to transact.”

This issue brought trading on Globex for futures, options, and FX markets to a complete standstill, leaving investors without updated references for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, or major currency pairs.

Market Reaction and Risks

Some brokers have switched to internal pricing for certain products, while others relied on alternative data sources. However, these approaches limit natural price formation and increase volatility risk. Experts advise investors to avoid making hasty moves and to closely follow CME’s official updates. Similar technical issues in the past temporarily halted markets and serve as warnings for traders.

The CME futures trading halt represents a significant development for both global markets and investors in Turkey. Trading on Globex and options markets is expected to resume soon, and market participants are urged to act with caution.

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Following the ruling, the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.50%. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to make clearer and bolder moves. The court found Trump’s unilateral tariffs unconstitutional and stated that emergency economic laws do not support such authority. Hayes pointed out that the US injected $4 trillion into the markets during 2020–2021. This liquidity combined with ETF demand and long-term holdings led Bitcoin to rise from $3,800 to $70,000. Hayes expects twice as much new capital by 2028. He argues that with decreasing supply, this will push BTC to $1 million. 

US Tariffs Court Decision 

The US International Trade Court’s decision raises the prospect of refunding tariffs collected since April 2. The refund amount is estimated to reach about $10 billion. China alone will receive $3.5 billion from this refund package. This situation may accelerate the European Union’s search for a new trade deal with the US. The court ruling covers the 10% base tariff and higher rates applied to some countries. If the court also approves the “reciprocal tariffs” principle, a fundamental change in US trade policy could occur. 

Arthur Hayes, commenting on the developments, said the market is ready for a second major rally. According to Hayes, the court ruling reduces uncertainty and boosts investor confidence. “This is the time to buy everything,” Hayes said, predicting gains across all markets, including crypto assets. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would appeal the decision. The prolonged legal process indicates that tariff uncertainty will continue for some time. Experienced economist Peter Schiff supported the court’s decision, stating, “Tariffs belong to Congress. One person making this decision is unconstitutional.” 

Additionally, S&P 500 futures rose 1.6%, and Nasdaq futures increased by about 2%. Nvidia shares gained 4.4% following a strong earnings forecast. 

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