With geopolitical risks rising, S&P 500 losses remaining below 1% have surprised even the major bank.

Solomon noted that market reactions were calmer than expected:

“Looking at market responses… given the magnitude, I expected a stronger reaction.”

How Are Markets Reacting Now?

Energy prices are rising sharply. Expanding conflict has triggered supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have shifted from riskier assets to safe havens, strengthening the dollar while global stock indexes saw modest declines. Losses on Wall Street were relatively mild; the S&P 500 recovered early-day losses over two sessions, ending with a drop below 1%.

Solomon emphasized that this calm reflects how geopolitical events usually do not directly affect economic growth. However, cumulative effects may emerge later:

“We haven’t seen the cumulative effect yet. There’s still a lot unknown, so predictions are difficult.”

What Is the US Economy’s Condition?

Solomon stated that strong macroeconomic fundamentals make the US economy resilient. Looser monetary policy and regulatory relief have helped support growth.

According to the CEO, the US economy may “overheat slightly” this year, potentially pushing inflation above expectations. Private credit portfolios remain healthy, but during long credit cycles, slower growth could expose weaker lending standards:

“Competition in capital allocation is putting pressure on lending standards. If a slowdown or recession occurs, weak spots will become more evident.”

Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping White-Collar Work

Goldman Sachs is using AI to automate processes. While headcount remains largely stable, productivity is increasing and employees are being redirected to different roles. Short-term effects are beginning to be felt, but no long-term labor shortage is expected.

The CEO’s remarks are critical for understanding market risk perception and workforce planning in banking. Solomon described AI’s effects as “complex,” noting that short- and medium-term impacts are not yet fully clear.

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River notes that while market valuations have pulled back sharply since the October peak, structural adoption trends are compounding beneath the surface. Trust in Bitcoin, the firm argues, has grown at a historically unprecedented pace. What began as a niche technological experiment is now widely recognized as a global store of value, with adoption patterns comparable to the early growth of the internet.

Institutional and Banking Momentum Builds

In 2025 alone, institutions accumulated approximately 829,000 BTC. These acquisitions came from a broad spectrum of entities, including corporations, government bodies, funds, and exchange-traded products. Registered investment advisors have been net buyers of Bitcoin for eight consecutive quarters, allocating around $1.5 billion per quarter into Bitcoin ETFs over the past two years.

Major U.S. banks are also expanding their involvement. Around 60% of the country’s leading banks are reportedly developing Bitcoin-related products. A more favorable regulatory climate has enabled banks to custody Bitcoin directly and provide related services to clients. Meanwhile, businesses emerged as the largest net buyers in 2025, with crypto treasury companies driving much of the demand. Adoption among these treasury-focused firms expanded 2.5 times over the past year.

Merchant Growth and Sovereign Participation

Commercial acceptance has accelerated significantly. The number of U.S. merchants accepting Bitcoin payments has tripled, while global usage rose by 74% in 2025. Activity on the Lightning Network surged by 300%, with estimated monthly transaction volume now exceeding $1.1 billion.

At the sovereign level, five additional nation-states became Bitcoin holders in 2025. These include purchases linked to two sovereign wealth funds in Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia, a central bank acquisition in the Czech Republic, and direct involvement from Brazil and Taiwan. In total, River estimates that 23 countries now hold Bitcoin through mining operations, asset seizures, or central bank exposure.

Declining Volatility Signals Maturation of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s volatility profile is also evolving. River reports that its fluctuations are increasingly converging toward those of gold and the S&P 500. Lower volatility reduces barriers for more risk-averse capital pools, potentially unlocking broader institutional participation.

Looking ahead, River expects adoption not only to persist but to accelerate. Despite price drawdowns, the underlying infrastructure, institutional engagement, and sovereign interest continue to reinforce Bitcoin’s trajectory as a mature global asset.

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Why Are Systematic Funds Turning into Sellers?

Goldman Sachs’ trading desk highlights that trend-following funds, commonly referred to as Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs), have already generated sell signals in the S&P 500. Even in scenarios where markets attempt a short-term stabilization, these strategies are expected to remain net sellers.

The bank estimates that if market weakness deepens, roughly $33 billion in equities could be sold within a single week. More importantly, should key technical levels be breached over the coming month, total systematic selling could climb to as much as $80 billion. This scale of potential outflows underscores the sensitivity of current market conditions.

Liquidity Concerns and Rising Volatility

Another critical issue flagged by analysts is deteriorating market liquidity. Shifts in options positioning, particularly the rise in “short gamma” exposure, can amplify price swings. In such environments, dealers are often forced to sell into declining markets and buy into rising ones, which tends to accelerate intraday movements and heighten overall volatility.

Beyond CTAs, other systematic approaches—such as risk-parity and volatility-control strategies—still have room to reduce exposure if market turbulence intensifies. This suggests that selling pressure could broaden, rather than remain confined to a single group of funds.

Implications for Bitcoin and Precious Metals

Although the primary focus of Goldman Sachs’ analysis is equities, history shows that liquidity-driven sell-offs often spill over into other asset classes. Bitcoin, in particular, has shown an increased correlation with broader risk sentiment during periods of market stress. As a result, forced deleveraging in equities could translate into heightened volatility across crypto markets.

The outlook for gold and silver is more nuanced. While periods of uncertainty can boost safe-haven demand, tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar may simultaneously weigh on precious metals. This dynamic can lead to sharp moves in either direction, depending on how macro conditions evolve.

Critical for Bitcoin, Gold, and US Stock Markets!

Overall, the combination of systematic deleveraging, rising volatility, and weakening investor confidence points to a fragile market environment. If the projected selling materializes, the coming weeks could serve as a significant stress test not only for U.S. equities, but also for Bitcoin and precious metals.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Tom Lee: A “Compressed” Year Before a Breakout

Speaking in a recent televised interview, Lee described the current market environment as unusually constrained but full of potential energy. In his view, the year is likely to be marked by emotional swings—periods of pessimism, relief rallies, and renewed optimism—before resolving into a strong upward move.

He emphasized that many of the pressures that weighed on markets last year, especially around trade-related concerns, appear to be fading. With the most challenging phase now behind, Lee believes risk assets are positioned for recovery. He also pointed to expectations for strong performance among major technology stocks and suggested that the S&P 500 could approach the 7,700 level by year-end.

Bitcoin Targets and the End of the Four-Year Cycle?

Despite Bitcoin and Ethereum falling short of earlier targets, Lee has not lowered his long-term expectations. On the contrary, he argued that a move above $200,000—or even $250,000—would fundamentally challenge the long-standing four-year crypto market cycle theory. Traditionally, 2026 would be viewed as a downturn year, but Lee believes current dynamics could invalidate that pattern entirely.

He highlighted several supportive forces: the unwinding of excessive leverage following a major market shock in October, ongoing institutional adoption, expanding crypto product offerings from Wall Street, and increasing government-level support. Combined with expectations of future interest rate cuts, these elements create what he sees as a highly constructive backdrop for Bitcoin.

Macro Signals Supporting Crypto

Lee also underscored the importance of intermarket signals. Historically, periods when copper outperforms gold have coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies. Similarly, when key economic indicators—such as purchasing managers’ indexes—move above critical thresholds, digital assets have tended to benefit.

Beyond crypto, Lee briefly touched on geopolitical developments, including Venezuela, suggesting that oil prices could fall toward $40 per barrel. However, he does not expect energy equities to mirror that decline proportionally.

Overall, Lee’s outlook frames the coming period as challenging but ultimately rewarding for long-term crypto investors.

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Volatility Retreats, Strengthening Bullish Sentiment

Implied volatility measures tied to Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have erased nearly all of their recent spikes. Bitcoin’s 30-day BVIV index, calculated by Volmex, surged to nearly 65% in the days leading up to Nov. 21 but has since dropped back to an annualized 51%. This reversal came as Bitcoin’s price plunged from around $96,000 to below $80,000—a move that briefly ignited panic across the market. The quick decline in volatility suggests that fear has largely dissipated.

Deribit’s DVOL index reflects a similar pattern, mirroring the volatility swings seen across Wall Street. Meanwhile, the VIX—often referred to as the stock market’s “fear gauge”—jumped to 28% during the same period before falling back to 17%. Collectively, these signals indicate that risk-on sentiment is resurfacing as the market approaches the final month of the year.

Bitcoin Rebounds as Its Inverse Volatility Correlation Holds

Since last Friday, Bitcoin has climbed back above the $91,000 level, continuing to move inversely to its volatility index. This persistent negative correlation, which has become more pronounced since late last year, aligns with the narrative that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a more mature asset class.

Fed Expectations Revive Market Confidence

The sharp cooling in volatility is closely linked to shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut dropped to 39% just a week ago but has since surged to nearly 87%. This renewed dovish pricing has reduced demand for Bitcoin put options, signaling waning concerns about near-term downside risk.

On options platforms such as Deribit and Derive, short-term call-put skews have improved from the -7% to -10% range observed last week to around -5% today. While traders are still paying a premium for downside protection, the reduced skew highlights a significant decline in defensive positioning.

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Since hitting all-time highs in early October, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 35%, trading around $82,000. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also fallen from $4.28 trillion to $2.84 trillion, reflecting a roughly 33% decrease. Despite this pullback, Teng emphasized that Bitcoin still trades at more than double the levels seen at the beginning of 2024, highlighting the sector’s overall growth.

Market Consolidation Seen as Healthy

Teng views the current decline as a natural and healthy consolidation for the market. Profit-taking by investors and a temporary pause in price action can help stabilize the ecosystem. “Any form of consolidation allows the industry to regroup and build on stronger foundations,” Teng stated, underlining the long-term benefits of temporary corrections.

Bitcoin Volatility Compared to Traditional Assets

Contrary to the popular perception that Bitcoin is exceptionally volatile, Teng notes that its recent swings are comparable to movements in other major asset classes. In 2025, the 60-day BTC-USD volatility has ranged between 1% and 2.44% over short periods. This reflects a downward trend in Bitcoin’s historically extreme volatility, aided by growing adoption and increasing liquidity. While Bitcoin’s annualized volatility reached 181% in 2013, it has dropped to around 23% this year.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 briefly exceeded Bitcoin’s volatility during periods of extraordinary market turbulence in 2025. On average, however, the S&P 500 maintains volatility around 15%, while Bitcoin continues to show annualized volatility above 50%. Certain tech stocks, including Tesla (65%), AMD (73%), and Palantir (63%), demonstrate even higher volatility, though these are considered outliers in traditional finance.

Implications for Investors

Teng’s perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline is part of a broader, market-wide risk adjustment rather than a sector-specific crisis. Consolidation periods provide an opportunity for the cryptocurrency market to strengthen its foundations and allow investors to adapt to prevailing conditions. While Bitcoin remains volatile, historical trends indicate that its swings are gradually becoming more manageable as the market matures.

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A Market Disconnect: Bitcoin Falls as Major Indexes Hold Near Highs

One of Hayes’ central observations is the unusual divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. While BTC has experienced a steep pullback, equities such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain close to their peak levels. Hayes interprets this as an anomaly, suggesting that something fundamental within the financial ecosystem is beginning to crack.

He adds that the rally seen after April’s geopolitical tensions was not sustainable. Instead of representing genuine market strength, the upward movement was largely fueled by ETF inflows. Once those inflows slowed, the bullish momentum quickly faded.

Potential Downside Targets: “Bitcoin Could Slide to $80,000–$85,000”

Hayes describes Bitcoin as a barometer of liquidity conditions. As liquidity weakens globally, he expects BTC to face deeper declines. The current price behavior, he argues, aligns with the early stages of a developing credit crisis—one that could soon reveal itself more broadly. In this environment, Hayes believes a drop toward the $80,000 to $85,000 range remains a realistic possibility.

After the Crash: “Money Printing Will Accelerate” Said Hayes

If a full-scale financial disruption emerges, Hayes anticipates rapid intervention from both the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Such a scenario would likely involve aggressive monetary expansion. While painful in the short term, he suggests this response would ultimately set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major leg upward, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency toward the $200,000 to $250,000 zone once liquidity floods back into the system.

Looking Toward 2026: “China Will Ignite the Next Bull Cycle”

Beyond the immediate market pressures, Hayes sees China playing a critical role in shaping the next major crypto bull run. He notes that Beijing is currently reluctant to ease monetary policy due to its desire to project a strong yuan. For China to begin expanding, the United States must first take the lead in boosting liquidity. Once that happens, Hayes believes China will follow—an event he expects to ignite the 2026 crypto bull cycle.

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First U.S Shutdown Since 2018

For the first time since the 35-day closure in late 2018, the U.S. government has entered a shutdown. The deadlock stems from Congress’ inability to pass the funding bill for the 2026 fiscal year, highlighting sharp partisan divisions between Democrats and Republicans.

At the heart of the dispute lies a temporary funding measure known as the continuing resolution (CR). Republicans pushed the measure forward without additional policy adjustments demanded by Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer insisted on permanently extending tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, warning that millions could otherwise lose health coverage.

Bitcoin and Gold See Safe-Haven Demand

As the political standoff deepens, investors are seeking safety in alternative assets. Bitcoin gained more than 3% in the past 24 hours, trading around $117,227, while gold prices climbed by 0.7%. The moves suggest increasing demand from institutional and retail players looking to hedge against prolonged uncertainty.

Have Altcoins Already Bottomed Out?

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, argued that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 could benefit from the shutdown scenario. He noted that prolonged budget deadlocks tend to keep U.S. interest rates lower, a factor that often supports risk assets.

According to Lee, Bitcoin’s independence from government and political events makes it particularly attractive to traditional investors:

“Bitcoin stands to benefit from this environment. While short-term corrections are likely, many leading altcoins appear to have already reached their bottom.”

Lee also highlighted that Bitcoin reclaiming the $116,000 level is a strong signal heading into October, historically considered one of the most positive months for crypto markets.

Mixed Market Reactions in the Past

History shows that markets don’t always respond uniformly to government shutdowns. In 2013, stocks fell while Bitcoin rallied. By contrast, the 2019 shutdown saw both equities and Bitcoin decline simultaneously.

As one macro research outlet noted, shutdowns disrupt government operations but their impact on markets varies significantly each time.

Federal Reserve and Investor Outlook

Past shutdowns have often nudged the Federal Reserve toward more dovish monetary policies. On average, the S&P 500 delivered a 13% yearly gain in the aftermath of such events, according to trading data. Some analysts even argue that markets historically “welcome” shutdowns due to the resulting policy flexibility.

Meanwhile, prediction market platform Polymarket currently places the probability of the shutdown ending by October 15 at around 38%.

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What is BitDCA (BDCA)?

BitDCA is a Czech Republic-based fintech project that offers a platform through its Littlebit application to automate Bitcoin savings. Founded in 2019, the project allows users to convert a predetermined percentage of their payment card transactions into Bitcoin, utilizing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. This provides an easy, secure, and modern investment method for both newcomers and experienced investors in the crypto space. The platform’s native token, $BDCA, enables users to earn a share of transaction fees generated by the Littlebit app.

BitDCA has secured a strong financial foundation with $2 million in shareholder investments and $6 million raised through a private token sale. With over 1,000 token holders and a growing community, the project ensures reliability and transparency with smart contracts audited by CertiK. BitDCA aims to reach a global user base and plans to support additional investment assets (cryptocurrencies, gold, S&P 500) in the future.

Key Features of BitDCA (BDCA)

BitDCA stands out with its user-friendly features that automate Bitcoin savings. Here are the platform’s core features:

1. Automated Bitcoin Savings

The Littlebit app automatically converts a set percentage of each card payment into Bitcoin, eliminating manual investment processes and making regular savings effortless.

2. User-Friendly Interface

The app is designed to be intuitive and accessible to everyone. Users can connect their payment cards and set a savings percentage to start accumulating Bitcoin instantly.

3. Secure Storage

Users’ Bitcoin is stored in secure, multi-signature wallets. Individual sub-accounts are created for each user, and a legal custody agreement ensures users remain the sole owners of their assets.

4. Flexible Withdrawal Options

Users can withdraw their accumulated Bitcoin to their own wallets or exchanges at any time. Automated withdrawals can also be set up when savings reach a threshold, such as $100.

5. Regulatory Compliance

The platform employs KYC/AML screenings and a risk-based approach to mitigate money laundering (AML), terrorist financing (CTF), and fraud risks. All sensitive operations are audited and secured.

6. $BDCA Token

The $BDCA token is used to distribute a share of transaction fees from the Littlebit app. Token holders receive these fees every 14 days, benefiting from additional income. The tokens operate on the BNB Chain and have a deflationary structure, audited by CertiK.

7. Transparency and Self-Custody

BitDCA stores users’ Bitcoin in secure sub-accounts, ensuring full ownership. Transparent custody services and legal agreements enhance user trust.

How BitDCA (BDCA) Works

BitDCA transforms daily spending into Bitcoin savings as follows:

1. Card Linking: Users connect their existing Mastercard or Visa cards to the Littlebit app.

2. Savings Percentage Setting: A percentage (e.g., 5%) is set to be converted to Bitcoin from each card payment.

3. Automated Investment: When a user spends, for example, €10, the set percentage is automatically used to purchase Bitcoin.

4. Secure Storage: Purchased Bitcoin is stored in multi-signature wallets in user-specific sub-accounts.

5. Flexible Withdrawals: Users can transfer their Bitcoin to personal wallets at any time or set up automated withdrawals.

6. $BDCA Rewards: Token holders receive a share of transaction fees from the app every 14 days.

Benefits of BitDCA (BDCA) to Stakeholders

• Users: Effortlessly turn daily spending into Bitcoin savings with minimal risk.

• Token Holders: Earn regular income by staking $BDCA and sharing app transaction fees.

• Investors: Benefit from the potential value appreciation of $BDCA as the project grows.

• Community: Gain access to a platform that democratizes Bitcoin investments.

BitDCA (BDCA) Tokenomics

The $BDCA token is the platform’s core utility token with a total supply of 142,666,667. The token distribution is as follows:

• Staking: 45.10%
  The majority of tokens enable users to stake and earn a share of transaction fees.

• Community: 21.48%
  Allocated to encourage community participation.

• Treasury: 12.12%
  Used for operational expenses and development.

• Partnerships: 7.20%
  Supports strategic collaborations.

• Liquidity: 2.63%
  Enhances token liquidity on exchanges.

• Team: 6.31%
  Allocated to team members, subject to community-focused vesting rules.

• Free Floating Supply: 5.08%
  Freely traded in the market.

Additional Features:

• Tokens operate on the BNB Chain as BEP-20 and are audited by CertiK.

• A deflationary structure includes token burning.

• Team tokens are released based on contributions to increasing token value.

• The private sale raised $6 million, with 90% of tokens staked long-term.

BitDCA Roadmap

BitDCA has made significant progress since 2022:

• 2022: Feasibility analysis, business plan, and shareholder funding.

• 2023-2024: Partner selection, transaction flows, $BDCA tokenomics, and smart contract audits.

• Q3 2025: Launch of the Littlebit app on iOS and Android.

• Future: Integration of additional assets (cryptocurrencies, gold, S&P 500) and global market expansion.

BitDCA (BDCA) Partners

BitDCA collaborates with one of the Czech Republic’s leading software companies to develop the app. The project is backed by prominent shareholders, including Aleš Minx (PPF Group), Miloslav Vyhnal (KKCG and RSBC), and Vladislav Fedoš (ALPINE PRO), enhancing its credibility and potential.

BitDCA (BDCA) Team

BitDCA, a Czech Republic-based fintech project, is led by an experienced team. Founder and CEO Jan Zaruba shapes the project’s vision, while co-founder and head of blockchain development Ondrej Kavka leads the technical infrastructure. Chief business officer and head of growth Marian Lechnyr drives global market strategies, and CTO and product owner Radim Trojek plays a key role in developing the Littlebit app.

Official Links

• Website
• X (Twitter)
• Whitepaper

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Hyperliquid: Revenue Per Employee Ranking

When it comes to revenue per employee, Hyperliquid stands far ahead of its competitors. The ranking looks as follows:

1. Hyperliquid – $102.4 million

2. Tether – $93 million

3. OnlyFans – $37.6 million

4. Nvidia – $3.6 million

5. Cursor – $3.3 million

6. Apple – $2.4 million

7. Meta – $2.2 million

As seen above, even tech giants like Apple and Meta fall far behind Hyper’s in this comparison.

70x Higher Than S&P 500 Companies

Another striking fact is that company’s revenue per employee is roughly 70 times higher than the average company listed in the S&P 500 index. This not only showcases the efficiency of its business model but also highlights the enormous potential of next-generation crypto platforms.

Curious to learn more? Check out our detailed blog post: What is Hyperliquid?

What is Hyperliquid? What Does It Do?

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