According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $568.45 million in net inflows this week. The previous week recorded $787.31 million in net inflows. This indicates renewed investor appetite after several weeks of continuous outflows.

Previously, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a five-week period of cumulative outflows totaling roughly $3.8 billion. The largest weekly outflow during this streak occurred in the week ending January 30, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.49 billion in net withdrawals.

Looking at daily flows during the week, activity was mixed. On Monday, ETFs saw $458.19 million inflows, followed by $225.15 million on Tuesday. Momentum picked up on Wednesday with $461.77 million inflows. However, the trend reversed later in the week, with $227.83 million outflows on Thursday and $348.83 million on Friday.

Ethereum ETFs Also Positive

US spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded two consecutive weeks of net inflows. This week, approximately $23.56 million flowed in, after $80.46 million the previous week. This marks the first two-week back-to-back gain since October.

Before the rebound, spot Ethereum ETFs faced a sustained five-week outflow streak totaling over $1.38 billion. The largest weekly outflow occurred in the week ending January 23, totaling roughly $611 million. Daily flows were mixed: Monday $38.69 million inflow, Tuesday $10.75 million outflow, Wednesday $169.41 million inflow. Momentum faded again toward the weekend.

Bitcoin ETFs Match Gold ETF Inflows

Blockstream Marketing Director Fernando Nikolić noted on X (Twitter) that Bitcoin ETFs have matched roughly 15 years of cumulative inflows seen by gold ETFs in just two years. Despite gold’s long ETF history, Bitcoin ETFs achieving this milestone in a short period demonstrates that institutional demand persists even amid weak price performance.

Nikolić added:

“Anyone still arguing about whether bitcoin is ‘digital gold’ is wasting their breath. Bitcoin is making gold look slow.”

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While this figure alone may seem modest, the two-week trend tells a different story. During this period, total new investments flowing into spot BTC ETFs have reached around $1.47 billion.

The market is closely monitoring whether institutional demand is showing a clear recovery after a weak start to the year.

ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin Prices

BTC has shown renewed upward momentum in recent days. The fresh capital flowing into spot ETFs appears to have a supportive effect on prices after weeks of stagnation.

According to SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $1.47 billion in new allocations over the past two weeks.

Data from Bloomberg Intelligence over a broader timeframe indicate a similar trend. Investors have directed around $1.7 billion into U.S. spot BTC ETFs since February 24, signaling that institutional players may feel the market has bottomed, at least in the short term.

ETF Flows Don’t Always Impact Spot Prices Immediately

Not all market participants share the same optimism.

Bitfinex analysts note that ETF inflows do not always translate directly into immediate buying pressure in the spot market. Authorized participants can sometimes create ETF shares and short sell before acquiring underlying Bitcoin, meaning the actual impact on prices may be delayed.

Bitcoin Seen as a Geopolitical Hedge

Nevertheless, some market observers see a changing role for Bitcoin. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng suggests BTC is increasingly considered a geopolitical hedge, rather than purely a speculative risk asset.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin trades 24/7 and can move across borders instantly, allowing capital to react quickly during periods of geopolitical tension. For some investors, this makes Bitcoin a potential safe haven in global crises.

On-Chain Data Suggest Caution

Blockchain data indicate a more cautious picture.

Glassnode reports that buying momentum has significantly weakened, and realized profits have sharply declined. The 30-day moving average of realized gains has fallen approximately 63% since early February.

Only 57% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit

Another key metric is the portion of Bitcoin supply in profit.

At current levels, only about 57% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit, a level historically associated with the early stages of bear markets.

Glassnode also highlights the short-term investors’ cost basis, estimated near $70,000. This suggests that approaching this level may trigger exits from break-even positions, potentially converting upward moves into distribution zones.

Critical Price Range

Overall, the picture for BTC is complex.

On one hand, institutional capital via ETFs signals renewed market stability. On the other, on-chain data suggest investor behavior could remain fragile.

Many analysts view the $70,000–$72,000 range as a key zone that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Current Bitcoin Metrics

• Bitcoin price: ~$72,500

• ETF net inflows (latest day): $155 million

• Two-week ETF inflows: ~$1.47 billion

• Total inflows since Feb 24: ~$1.7 billion

• Bitcoin supply in profit: ~57%

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Why Are Whales Moving?

Exchange deposits from addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have intensified. This is rarely random. Historically, when large holders move assets to exchanges, it often signals preparation to sell, increasing immediate liquidity pressure.

What stands out is persistence. The activity is not isolated. Wallet age, transaction frequency, and historical behavior patterns suggest this is not routine portfolio rebalancing but a cautious repositioning. Markets tend to price in such behavior quickly. And price often follows.

ETF Side: A Quiet Capital Rotation?

After strong inflows following ETF approvals in 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now posting net outflows of $2.6 billion for the year. That shift suggests traditional finance participants are reducing exposure.

Over the past 72 hours, broader capital rotation has been visible across risk assets, with flows moving toward gold and cash equivalents. Bitcoin appears caught in that rotation. When institutional demand weakens while whale-driven supply increases, short-term balance tilts downward.

Derivatives Desk: Put Premiums Rising

In options markets, put skew has become more pronounced. Downside protection is trading at a premium relative to calls, signaling growing hedging activity among professional traders.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated in specific downside strikes, while implied volatility trends upward. This combination frequently precedes increased spot pressure — not always immediately, but often within short timeframes.

Technical Levels: Between $78,000 and $53,000

Bitfinex Alpha identifies $78,000 as a key resistance level and $53,000 as a major psychological and structural support zone near realized price levels.

A sustained move above $78,000 would require significant new capital inflows — something current flow data does not yet confirm. A breakdown below $53,000, however, could accelerate liquidations and margin unwinds. Volume structure and lower-high patterns continue to reflect a fragile trend.

Key Data Snapshot

The core metrics are aligned:

64% of exchange inflows originate from large holders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show -$2.6 billion in net flows year-to-date. Put demand is increasing in options markets. $78,000 stands as resistance, while $53,000 remains a critical support zone.

Conclusion

Multiple datasets are telling the same story: rising supply from whales, institutional outflows, and increased hedging activity. Until ETF inflows resume and whale exchange transfers slow meaningfully, downside risks remain present.

Market participants continue to monitor exchange flow reversals and derivatives positioning closely. For now, the data suggests caution.

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This indicator measures the difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance. It is used to gauge corporate demand relative to retail investors. Deep moves into the negative zone typically coincide with periods of intensified institutional selling.

Right now, the chart is saying exactly that.

According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Gap fell to -167.8, the lowest level in over a year. At the same time, trading volume on Coinbase Advanced Trade is below that of Binance, which is widely used by retail investors.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes this difference is not a coincidence:

“Institutional investor selling pressure is intensifying. Prices are pushed down, creating a negative gap.”

In other words, large players are exiting at lower prices.

Whales Selling at Low Premiums

Coinbase premiums have steadily declined since October. The drop accelerated significantly in the past week.

This trend shows that whales are consistently offloading Bitcoin at lower premiums. It also signals waning interest and activity on Coinbase.

Darkfost summarizes the current environment:

“The market is highly uncertain. Risk appetite is low, which prevents strong capital inflows into Bitcoin. BTC remains volatile and risky.”

Spot ETFs Turn Net Sellers

Weakness on the institutional side is not limited to Coinbase data. According to CryptoQuant’s latest market update, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which purchased over 46,000 BTC at this time last year, have become net sellers in 2026, offloading roughly 10,600 BTC so far.

This shift created a 56,000 BTC demand gap compared to 2025, sustaining selling pressure. Last week alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling $1.2 billion. Bitcoin fell below $71,000 on Thursday, testing its lowest levels in 15 months.

Institutions Pull Back, Pressure Deepens

Such a negative Coinbase Premium Gap generally means one thing: professional money is exiting the market. Retail investors may still be active, but institutions clearly set the price. Bitcoin’s continued volatility and risk perception are pushing corporate funds toward safer havens, making $70,552 a critical psychological level for market participants.

As long as this structure persists, short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin is unlikely to ease.

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IBIT Breaks Records in Just 341 Days!

Since its launch, IBIT has been flooded with intense demand from institutional investors. BlackRock’s ETF reached a size of 70 billion dollars in just 341 days, making it one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. According to current data, IBIT’s net assets are now hovering around 70.7 billion dollars.

This growth is not seen merely as a result of Bitcoin’s price movements. At the same time, it clearly shows the rising interest of banks, funds, family offices, and institutional investors in BTC.

You may also be interested in this article: The Altcoins with the Highest Buybacks in the Last 30 Days!

Bitcoin ETF Becomes the Company’s Largest Revenue Source!

São Paulo hosted a Blockchain Conference where Brazil’s Business Development Director Cristiano Castro made the following statement:

We must acknowledge that Bitcoin ETFs have become the top revenue generator within the company. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF allocations are approaching 100 billion dollars. Even for a giant managing a total of 13.4 trillion dollars, this is an unexpected surprise. “We were optimistic during the launch, but we did not expect to reach this scale,” he added.

BlackRock Holds Over 3% of the Total Bitcoin Supply

IBIT — BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF — has grown unexpectedly fast thanks to the company’s global distribution power and the strong confidence of institutional investors. The fund currently holds more than 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. Additionally, its support from international ETPs and other BTC-linked BlackRock products makes it stand out even more.

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PlanC: “The Q4 Peak Is a Statistical Misconception”

Crypto analyst PlanC recently criticized the idea that Bitcoin must top out in Q4, calling it statistically unsound.

“Assuming Bitcoin is guaranteed to peak at the end of this year goes against basic probability theory,” PlanC explained. He likened the logic to flipping a coin three times and getting tails, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also land tails. According to him, basing conclusions solely on three previous cycles does not constitute meaningful statistical evidence.

Are Bitcoin Halving Cycles Still Relevant?

PlanC also suggested that the traditional halving cycle model may no longer apply to Bitcoin’s trajectory. He pointed to new dynamics in the market, such as the rise of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and the billions of dollars flowing into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“There is no fundamental reason for a peak in Q4 2025 other than psychological momentum or a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.

Q4: Historically Bitcoin’s Strongest Quarter

Still, history shows that Q4 has often been Bitcoin’s strongest-performing period. Since 2013, the fourth quarter has averaged an 85.42% return. But analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. In fact, if the halving cycle remains a factor, Bitcoin could enter a downtrend as early as October.

Diverging Expert Opinions on Bitcoin

Market experts are far from united on Bitcoin’s year-end outlook:

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates there’s a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin reaches between $140,000 and $150,000 this year before a potential bear market in 2026.

• Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, believes the bull cycle will last longer, stating, “I’d bet 2026 is an up year.”

• On the more bullish side, Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder) and Joe Burnett (Director of Research at Unchained) have both predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the end of 2025.

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Is the Bitcoin Cycle Still Alive?

While many analysts argue that growing institutional participation could end the classic halving cycle, Glassnode takes a different stance. According to the firm, Bitcoin’s current trajectory continues to show strong similarities to historical cycles.

Glassnode highlights that the latest 55-day period resembles earlier “euphoric phases,” which may indicate that the market is already in the later stages of its current cycle.

Weakening Demand and ETF Outflows

The report also points to signs of fading demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have recorded nearly $975 million in outflows over the past four trading sessions.

After hitting a fresh high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin corrected by 8.3%, trading around $113,940. As demand cools, traders appear to be shifting toward riskier altcoin positions. Open interest briefly hit a record $60 billion before correcting by $2.5 billion.

Could the Next Peak Come in October?

If Bitcoin continues to follow its historical path, Glassnode believes a new market peak could arrive as early as October. In previous cycles, particularly in 2018 and 2022, cycle tops occurred just 2–3 months after cycle lows.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted in July that if the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market could reach its peak in October — roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

Contrasting Views: Is the Cycle Over?

Not everyone agrees with Glassnode’s perspective. Some argue that large-scale BTC accumulation by public companies and strong ETF demand could disrupt the traditional 4-year rhythm.

Investor Jason Williams pointed out that the top 100 corporate treasuries now hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting this cycle may unfold differently. Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan declared that the “Bitcoin cycle is dead,” predicting the next major rally might not arrive until 2026.

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On-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence recorded these transfers. The data indicated that institutional investors executed these transactions. All transfers occurred from verified and trusted addresses. 

Anchorage Digital managed high-volume transfers swiftly. This move also demonstrated the company’s capacity in managing institutional portfolios. All activity remained traceable on the blockchain. 

On-Chain Data Reveals Institutional Demand 

Arkham Intelligence Explorer detected a rise in Bitcoin holdings in Anchorage Digital’s addresses. A total of 10,141 BTC moved in groups from different wallets. Some wallets had zero balance before the transfer. 

These BTCs came from various wallets and were sent to Anchorage Digital’s custody addresses. Meanwhile, the transfers completed within nine hours. On-chain data tracked these activities in real time. Thus, the company’s Bitcoin reserves increased significantly. 

Anchorage Digital expands its range of institutional services. The company provides custody services for BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products. It also partnered with Bitcoin staking solution Babylon Labs to offer BTC staking access to institutional clients. Furthermore, it supports secure custody for Bitcoin Layer-2 protocol Stacks (STX). These developments show increased trust and demand from institutional investors. Anchorage Digital’s assets under custody grew by 80% in Q1 2023. 

Transfers Consist of Large-Scale Institutional Transactions 

Lookonchain and Arkham Intelligence listed most transfers as transactions exceeding 1,000 BTC. Therefore, the transfers are considered institutional scale. Additionally, the total value reached $1.19 billion. Consequently, institutional investors acquired significant Bitcoin amounts through Anchorage Digital. 

Anchorage Digital has accumulated 10,141 $BTC($1.19B) from multiple wallets over the past 9 hours.https://t.co/zdNKM8YyQk pic.twitter.com/KCibu3t62l

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 30, 2025

Meanwhile, all transfers occurred transparently on the blockchain. Arkham Intelligence kept Anchorage Digital’s custody addresses’ Bitcoin balance updated.

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The SEC stated it needs additional time to review Truth Social’s S-1 filing submitted in June. According to the official announcement, the Commission will announce its decision on this application by September 18, 2025. The decision could be an approval, rejection, or referral to another process. 

Truth Social’s application came after the SEC approved its first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. During this period, BlackRock’s IBIT fund rose to lead the ETF market with nearly $100 billion in assets under management. 

Second Extension for Grayscale’s Solana ETF Application

Following Truth Social, Grayscale re-entered the SEC’s focus. The Commission extended the review period for Solana Trust’s conversion to an ETF until October 10, 2025. Previously postponed twice in March and May, this marks the third delay. 

In mid-June, Grayscale and other issuers made several updates to their applications based on SEC feedback. Issues such as staking mechanisms and the same redemption model caused detailed regulatory review. 

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1914336419314643103

Meanwhile, companies like VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital also filed for spot Solana ETFs. Additionally, Rex Osprey’s SOL Staking ETF attracted attention with a $133 million target size. 

Approval Process Must Be Completed by End of 2025

Legally, the SEC must decide on all ETF applications by the end of 2025. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted on X that the SEC currently has 72 crypto ETF applications pending. These applications cover various crypto assets including Bitcoin, Solana, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano. However, the SEC’s cautious approach continues to lag behind the market’s pace.

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IBIT Leads Inflows in Spot Bitcoin ETFs 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $157 million on July 28. This marks the third consecutive day of positive net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF was the day’s leader with an inflow of $147 million, reflecting investors’ long-term confidence in Bitcoin. 

Moreover, IBIT accounted for 93% of the total daily inflow, clearly showing it as the preferred product among institutional investors. 

Momentum also continues in spot Ethereum ETFs. On the same day, spot ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $65.14 million, marking the 17th consecutive day of positive net inflows. This indicates growing institutional interest in Ethereum as well. Ethereum ETFs recorded $1.59 billion in inflows last week, the second-largest weekly total in the asset’s history. 

Last week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted increasing interest in DeFi, staking, and tokenization, predicting continued demand for Ethereum ETFs. Institutions and ETFs are expected to generate $20 billion in ETH demand next year, while only 800,000 ETH will be issued. 

Other spot BTC ETFs contributed more modestly. However, the overall positive picture signals optimism for the sector. The consecutive inflows into US-based spot crypto ETFs indicate a sustained market recovery and renewed institutional confidence. Strong demand for large funds like IBIT reaffirms investors’ belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

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