Why Gold and Silver Are Rising

Platinum and palladium also climbed, testing three-week peaks, with platinum reaching $2,244.85 per ounce and palladium $1,811.37 per ounce. These gains reflect both trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

The US has temporarily imposed a 10% global import tariff, with plans to raise it to 15% according to White House officials. The Supreme Court had previously struck down parts of former President Donald Trump’s measures, creating confusion over tariff policy. Investors have turned to gold in Asian markets to hedge this uncertainty.

Gold had reached its highest three-week level earlier in the day, but profit-taking pushed it down, closing the previous session more than 1% lower. Analysts note that gold’s upward potential remains as long as US fiscal and trade policy uncertainty persists. Analyst Rodda said, “The potential for further gains in gold remains high, especially if US fiscal and foreign policy actions continue.”

Two US Federal Reserve officials said there are no short-term plans to change monetary policy. According to CME FedWatch, the market currently expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.

Geopolitical Developments Driving Metal Prices

Geopolitical developments are also affecting metals. President Trump’s Tuesday remarks outlining potential action against Iran and preventing nuclear weapons created market volatility. Sources close to the talks indicate Iran is nearing an agreement to purchase anti-ship missiles from China. Iran and the US will hold the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday.

Metal Futures – Spot and Futures (February 25, 2026)

• Palladium: $1,837, +19.3 (+1.06%), volume: 608

• Gold: $5,213.5, +37.2 (+0.72%), volume: 25,101

• Platinum: $2,282.9, +95.6 (+4.37%), volume: 4,974

• Silver: $90.47, +2.964 (+3.39%), volume: 7,174

• Copper: $5.963, +0.033 (+0.55%), volume: 2,120

Spot silver rose to $89.92 per ounce, a three-week high, following Monday’s two-week peak. Platinum and palladium showed similar momentum.

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A Strange Energy in Gold Markets After a Historic Collapse

Following a historic crash, the gold market is showing unusual momentum. The metal briefly surpassed $5,600 per ounce, then experienced one of the sharpest daily declines in decades; yet investors continue to aggressively bet on gold reaching $20,000. December 15,000–20,000 USD gold call option spreads have accumulated around 11,000 contracts, indicating serious positioning on such high-priced instruments.

In January 2026, metal futures volumes at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 86%, prompting 38 regulatory interventions. Analysts remain divided: some foresee a long-term bull market, while others warn of risks from excessive speculative positioning.

Walter Bloomberg commented, “$20,000 gold option contracts continue rising despite the record selling wave. Even after a historic correction, high-priced bullish bets are increasing. Prices may consolidate around $5,000, but roughly 11,000 contracts are in play.” This highlights the scale of positions taken far from current prices.

Speculation and Macroeconomics: Drivers Behind the Rally

These high-risk trades function like low-cost, high-potential bets. For these spreads to end profitably, gold would need to nearly triple by December, requiring a major macroeconomic or geopolitical shock. However, these positions are already influencing market psychology, increasing implied volatility and fueling aggressive upward demand.

Macro analyst Michael van de Poppe stated, “Gold may consolidate for 1–2 years in the short term, but that doesn’t mean we are not in a bigger bull market. Actually, we are. That’s why I plan to buy gold during a 30–50% drop ahead.” This view reflects growing belief that gold’s rise is driven by structural changes in the global financial system, not just cyclical factors.

Short-Term Volatility and Risks

While long-term bullish expectations remain, short-term volatility stays high. Commodity strategist Ole Hansen noted that falling US inflation and declining bond yields have supported gold, but trading volume and liquidity in China can significantly affect short-term prices.

The rally in metals coincides with a surge in speculative activity in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin futures in China. Exchanges tightened margin requirements and trading rules repeatedly, showing the market is overheating. Additionally, central bank diversification and China’s shift from US Treasuries to gold reinforce macro-geopolitical support for demand.

However, not all are convinced of sustainability. Commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that excessive positioning has historically preceded corrections, and high volatility plus speculative flows could leave markets vulnerable if macro conditions change.

Gold Price Pullback: February 17, 2026 Analysis

Holiday quiet in Asian markets and a strong dollar continue to weigh on gold. Fell nearly 1% to $4,947, April US gold futures dropped 1.6% to $4,966.

Three key reasons for the decline stand out: a stronger dollar, low trading volumes in China and neighboring markets, and easing geopolitical tensions. According to CME FedWatch, the market expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed this year. Normally this would support gold, but the dollar’s resilience is currently offsetting that effect.

Silver followed a similar path, dropping roughly 2.7% due to dollar pressure. Investors now await market direction after the holiday, with eyes on upcoming Fed minutes and US GDP data.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in January following a 0.3% increase in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% rise. These data points applied slight pressure on gold prices, while spot gold showed sudden fluctuations. Gram gold traded around 7,222 TL. In the short term, this pullback makes recovery difficult, and without a shift in the dollar’s trend, upward momentum is likely limited.

Inflation Data and Fed Outlook Influence Gold

CPI readings played a key role in short-term market movements. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that interest rates could fall, though service-sector inflation remains elevated. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady at its March 18 meeting. Futures pricing indicates a total 75 basis points of cuts this year, with the first expected in July. Historically, non-yielding precious metals perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Tim Waterer added, “Gold will likely need the dollar to resume its downtrend to push toward $6,000 by year-end.”

Why Did Bitcoin and Gold & Silver Fall?

Other Metals and Geopolitical Developments

Silver rose 3% on Friday but fell 3.2% on Monday to $74.50 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.4% to $2,054.78, and palladium declined 0.2% to $1,682.44. Geopolitical developments are also weighing on the market. U.S. military officials are reportedly preparing for a potential weeks-long operation against Iran if President Donald Trump authorizes an attack, which could escalate tensions far beyond recent clashes.

Local Market Snapshot

As of 08:50 Turkish time, HAS Gold was trading around 7,291 TL, reflecting a roughly 1.10% daily drop. Gram gold remained near 7,327 TL.

• HAS: 7,258.83 / 7,291.27 TL, -1.09%

• Spot : 4,984.8 / 4,985.4 USD, -1.16%

• Gram : 7,222.54 / 7,327.73 TL, -1.09%

• Gold/Silver Ratio: 59.03 / 66.54, +1.28%

Profit-taking and low trading volumes continue to pressure both international and local prices.

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